### **Analysis of the Rainbow Wand** **Summary:** The Rainbow Wand is a cosmetic magic weapon initially introduced as a Treasure Hunter reward during a promotional event tied to a rainbow-themed campaign in 2021. Its vibrant aesthetic makes it desirable among collectors, while its purely cosmetic functionality limits practical use. It remains player-tradeable and has historically fluctuated in value based on cosmetic demand, speculative trends, and the release of comparable items. **Release Date:** Early 2021 as a limited Treasure Hunter prize. **Overall Rarity:** Moderately rare, depending on the promotional supply. While not as scarce as discontinued rares, demand remains consistent due to its unique design and limited re-releases. --- ### **Historical Price Trends and Key Drivers** A breakdown of price history reveals extreme volatility, with notable spikes and dips: 1. **Jan 2021 - Apr 2021:** Initial launch saw high speculative prices around 100M-119M due to limited supply. However, the **rollback and dupe events (Jan 11/Jul 1, 2021)** flooded the economy and caused hyperinflation, diminishing the wand's value. By April 2021, the economic shock combined with higher availability reduced its value to ~30M. 2. **Jul 2021 - Sep 2021:** Prices plateaued around the 26M-30M range during this recovery period but collapsed by September. The release of **Croesus (Sep 2021)** introduced gear and cosmetics that outshined many older items, sending the wand's value plummeting to sub-5M territory by October 2021. 3. **Late 2021 - 2022:** The Rainbow Wand stabilized in price but remained low (~200k). The removal of the **Duel Arena (Jan 2022)** had no direct correlation, though it signaled a shift toward less speculative and gambling-driven trading. 4. **2023 Onward:** Broader economic disruptions from the **Scrimshaw dupe (Jan 2023)**, **Hero Pass backlash (Sep 2023)**, and other exploits maintained heavy inflationary pressure. However, by November 2024, the Rainbow Wand rebounded slightly to ~253k, driven mainly by its aesthetic value rather than utility. **Why Price Spikes or Dips?** - Treasure Hunter **re-releases** heavily affect cosmetic prices, often devaluing items by flooding the market. No confirmed Rainbow Wand re-release has occurred since 2021, though future promotions may still negatively impact its price. - Economic exploits and **dupe events** (Jan 2021, Jul 2021, Jan 2023) frequently flooded the market with illegitimate GP and de-inflated most items relative to gold surpluses. - The lack of any updated features tied to magic-themed cosmetics or player interest in similar promotional weapons left the wand’s price range mostly static post-2022. --- ### **Future Price Predictions (Dec 2024 - Mid-2025)** Based on historical trends: 1. **Short-Term (Dec 2024 - Apr 2025):** Expect prices to remain stable around 250k-300k. The **Black Partyhat promotion (Dec 2023)** and **Sanctum of Rebirth loot rewards (Jul 2024)** likely increased competition for wealth-sink items, leaving the Rainbow Wand less significant in the player economy. 2. **Medium-Term (May 2025 - Beyond):** Potential future **Treasure Hunter updates** or **similar cosmetic re-releases** could crash its price to sub-100k levels. Alternatively, if it remains unreleased for several years, collectors may seek older, niche cosmetics, leading to a possible 15%-30% value increase by late 2025. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Rainbow Wand exhibits narrow flipping margins between buy and sell prices due to its low base value: - Buying Price Range: ~235k-245k - Selling Price Range: ~250k-260k - Typical Profit Margin: ~10k-15k per transaction. While the potential for flipping is limited, its predictable pricing makes it a safe, low-risk item for beginner or casual flippers. Focus on incremental profits rather than explosive gains from market manipulation. --- ### **Advice on Comparable Items** If investing in similar items, target cosmetics with limited re-releases or strong demand in niche markets: 1. **Golden Party Hat Shards/Golden Party Hat:** Events releasing long-term rewards often create demand for auxiliary cosmetic gear. 2. **Rainbow Amulet/Bow** (or related TH cosmetics): These follow trends similar to the Rainbow Wand and often experience correlated market behaviors. 3. **Aura or Animation Tokens (per removal trends):** Themed items tied to popular promotions (e.g., aura refresh) frequently rise post-event. --- ### **Seasonal Price Insights** **Positive Price Periods:** - **Post-Treasure Hunter Updates (Late January, Early Summer):** Speculation before re-releases can cause price increases. - **Holiday Events (December):** Collectors often purchase rare or unique items for seasonal fashion during Christmas events. **Negative Price Periods:** - **During Major Exploits (March, July):** As seen with dupes or gold floods, economic disruptions crash low-value items like the Rainbow Wand first. - **Post-Re-releases (~2 months later):** Items drop in price rapidly when reissued through Treasure Hunter or similar systems. --- ### **Summary Recommendation** Though unlikely to see rapid appreciation, the Rainbow Wand remains a stable cosmetic investment for collectors and low-risk traders. Avoid long-term stockpiling unless confirming no further re-releases. Instead, pair with other underappreciated cosmetics and diversify your portfolio during major events.