### **Analysis of the Ruby Cane** #### **Summary** The Ruby Cane is a discontinued item in RuneScape 3 that was originally added as a rare Treasure Hunter reward during the *Crystals of Fortune* promotion from November 21–25, 2014. It is a non-combat wieldable cosmetic cane decorated with a glowing ruby gem. Ruby-themed cosmetics have always been niche but aesthetically appealing to collectors who favor luxury-like customizations. As a Treasure Hunter reward that has since been discontinued, the Ruby Cane has no longer entered the game supply beyond its initial promotional run. It has maintained a status as a mid-tier discontinued cosmetic, appealing primarily to niche collectors but without reaching the prestige of rares like partyhats or santas. #### **Release Date** November 21, 2014 (discontinued after November 25, 2014). #### **Overall Rarity** The Ruby Cane is relatively uncommon compared to most tradeable cosmetics. However, it is overshadowed by more sought-after discontinued items like H'ween masks or Christmas scythes. While the exact ownership percentage is unknown, the rarity is driven by its limited release window combined with low demand historically. --- ### **Historical Price Data & Trends** - **Price Data Observed**: - *April 11, 2024*: 3,448,555 GP - *February 6, 2024*: 2,000,000 GP - *Prior Occurrence (February 6, 2024)*: 3,571,262 GP This suggests a volatile price trend with periodic dips and recoveries. The sharp drop to 2M in February could align with an influx of GP/events causing unpredictable demand. #### **Relevant Historical Events Impacting the Price** 1. **Increased Gold Supply Events:** - *01/11/2021 Rollback Dupe*: Introduced massive inflation, elevating prices of items with speculative or collector value. Ruby Cane likely saw an initial artificial peak in 2021–2022 from this. - *01/29/2023 Scrimshaw Dupe*: High influx of tradable items/gold would have caused deflation in smaller-scale items (including mid-tier rares). The Ruby Cane likely weakened in desirability due to availability of higher-tier investments. - *04/10/2024 Treasure Hunter GP*: Increased liquid gold added into the economy in 2024 would have temporarily boosted speculative investments but led to a general overvaluation, explaining the drop to 2M. 2. **Major Player Retention Updates:** - *Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022)*: Encouraged a new focus on attainable cosmetics. Collectibles like the Ruby Cane may have benefited from players returning after hiatuses. - *Hero Pass Backlash (09/05/2023)*: Created uncertainty in the economy, devaluing mid-price collectibles short term due to cash-hoarding. - *Black Partyhat (12/01/2023)*: Ruby Cane likely devalued as rare collectors diverted wealth into *black partyhat speculation*. 3. **Impact of Redistributed Wealth and Dupes**: - *April 2024 Duplication (Easter Egg Pets/Gummy Rewards)*: Resulted in GP inflation, making mid-priced collectibles like the Ruby Cane spike momentarily in March–April 2024 then normalize. #### **Price Prediction (Mid-2024 to Year-End)** The Ruby Cane's price will retain its volatile nature due to being a discontinued, low-demand item. However, barring further destabilizing updates (like dupes or treasure hunter GP introductions), the value should stabilize. Expect: - *Mid-June 2024*: ~3.5M GP (recovery due to speculative investors). - *Q3 and Q4 of 2024*: Plateau around 3.8M-4M GP as Treasures Hunter updates like *Sanctum of Rebirth (07/22/2024)* sustain demand for niche collectibles. Long-term, it is unlikely the Ruby Cane will appreciate significantly unless reintroduced or tied to macroeconomic inflation events. --- ### **Flipping Insights** - **Typical Flipping Margins (For Experienced Merchants):** - Purchase during lulls around anomalies (e.g., ~2M during inflations like April 2024). - Watch price stabilization toward weeks after controversial updates to offload at ~4M. - Flip margin: ~500K-1M GP per cane. #### **Flipping Strategy** - Focus on days following GP infusions (e.g., another Treasure Hunter promotion or dupe reset). - Stockpile when competitors move GP into major rares like H'weens, allowing smaller items to hit undervalued thresholds. --- ### **Comparable Items to Buy** 1. **Crystal/Frost/Themed Canes**: Keeping to luxury-oriented discontinued goods, items like *Crystal and Frost Canes* (also mid-tier value) move in similar patterns to the Ruby Cane. 2. **Silverhawk Down (Post Treasure Hunter Release)**: Limited-demand cosmetics from old Treasure Hunter can still see minor spikes. 3. **Golden Cosmetic Amulets**: Recent additions like *Golden Partyhat Shards* or *Golden Amulets* mimic demand similar to the Ruby Cane during major **season resets**. --- ### **Seasonal Trends** 1. **Positive Price Outcomes (Late Summer – Early Winter)** Events like *Halloween* (October) or *anniversary rares* draw collectors, increasing niche-buying sentiment. 2. **Negative Price Outcomes (Post-Holiday, Spring)** - Surges in late December GP infusion events (e.g., Black Partyhat) undermine mid-tier speculative demand for the Ruby Cane and similar items as wealth consolidates toward primary rares. Avoid panic investments post-New Year. --- Final advice: Stay liquid around high-profile item dupes or game instability periods. Focus flipping efforts when rare collapses pull GP into larger sinks instead of your chosen niche. Strategic patience will allow exploitation of quirky growth waves proven by *Treasure Hunter-related inflation metrics*.