### **Deep Analysis of the Assassin Walk Override Token**
#### **Item Summary**
The Assassin Walk Override Token allows players to unlock the Assassin Walk animation, a prestigious and stylistic movement cosmetic in RuneScape 3. Released on **June 14, 2022**, it was introduced through Treasure Hunter (TH) Squeal promotions, specifically during events emphasizing cosmetics and rare items. As with popular animations such as the Agile or Royal Walk Overrides, the Assassin Walk exudes exclusivity and caters to cosmetics-driven players who value appearance and prestige, making it highly desirable in the long term.
Its rarity stems from its limited availability via specific TH promotions, with no consistent means of re-obtaining it. Given RuneScape's history of re-releasing rare cosmetics, its value fluctuates based on perceived re-release risk, high Gold Per Hour (GP/H) gathering methods inflating player purchasing power, and general demand trends for style-enhancing overrides.
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#### **Rarity and Historical Price Analysis**
The Assassin Walk's rarity has made it a speculative investment item, reflected by its volatile price history and tight flipping margins. Below is a breakdown of your provided price history, paired with key events that likely influenced pricing:
1. **2021: Initial Bubble Pricing**
- Prices peaked at **7B GP** (April 2021) amid post-Croesus hype and ongoing excessive GP inflation from the 2021 rollback dupes. The absurd gold influx (via duplicated stacks and overly profitable activities) led to exaggerated demand for rare Treasure Hunter items.
2. **Late 2022: Stabilization**
- Many cosmetics-like Assassin Walk settled as duped GP exited circulation by 2022 due to Jagex's clampdowns (e.g., Duel Arena removal, Bond price increases, and Fresh Start Worlds). Assassin Walk hovered near **900M–1.1B GP** leading into mid-2023.
3. **2023–2024: Crash and Recovery Volatility**
- Significant price dips were seen due to the **Scrimshaw dupe (Jan 2023)** and **Hero Pass backlash (Sep 2023)**, intervals when players either liquidated valuables for survival or temporarily exited the market.
- **Necromancy release (Aug 2023)** revived prices as max combat level changes drew dormant players—primarily high-spending whales—back to the game. However, by mid-2024, destructive economic factors like high GP influx into the economy (e.g., Max Cash bugs and TH gold injections) caused consistent devaluation, bottoming the token temporarily to **406M** in **September 2024.**
4. **Recent Pricing Fluctuations**
By December 2024, prices hit **550M GP**, recovering slightly due to renewed interest in rare cosmetics leading into the 2024 holiday season (a predictable trend for most tradable collectibles).
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#### **Price Prediction (Q1–Q2 2025)**
**Short-Term Momentum (Next 3–6 months):**
With concerns of further gold inflation (due to continued Treasure Hunter-focused updates), **Assassin Walk is likely to slowly appreciate** between **600M–800M GP**. Three key factors suggest this trajectory:
- **Holiday Aftermath:** Collectibles generally rise in price post-holiday as casual players exit while speculators dominate.
- **Artificial Predictions:** Continued uncertainty about cosmetic re-releases (Jagex's reluctance to explicitly outline rotation schedules) boosts investor confidence.
- **Bond Price Pressures:** Recent real-world price hikes for Bonds incentivize wealthier players to convert their wealth into longer-term investments, including rare overrides.
**Risk Events:**
The following could cause price suppression:
- A **TH re-release event**, which could crash prices back to **400M GP or below**.
- Further GP exploits or dupes, though Jagex's swift anti-dupe policy suggests less severe future economic shocks.
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#### **Flipping Margins Q1 2025**
Assassin Walk Override Token's typical flipping margins range are **20M–50M GP**, depending on market volatility. The item's relatively slow trade speed (due to its luxury nature) means highly active price monitoring is essential. Profit profitability strategies include:
1. **Targeting Updates:** Buy pre-major content drops (e.g., combat updates) when cash sinks increase due to supply/demand tension.
2. **Holiday Speculation:** Flip in December-to-February offseasons when demand trends upward. Avoid June/July excessive downward pressure.
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#### **Similar Items to Trade**
For diversification (or hedging against specific market idiosyncrasies), these items mirror Assassin Walk's behavior:
1. **Ice Dye (Cosmetic Wears Well)**
- Similar speculative trends post-major updates or player cosmetics hype.
2. **Blood-Dyed Equipment (e.g., Seismic Staffs)**
- Duality as a practical and prestige item ensures seasonal upward trends.
3. **Shadow Drake Token (or similar rare pets)**
- Pets often have slower inflation than overrides but perform well in stagnant economic climates.
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#### **Seasonal Insights**
Seasonality has a significant effect on rare cosmetic investments:
1. **Positive Predictions:**
- **Late December through February:** Market rebounds from mid-winter spending lulls. Players reinvest liquidated GP into speculative or prestigious cosmetics.
- **Post-Spring Updates (Apr–Jun):** Content updates refocus attention on cosmetics as high-profile winners cash out.
2. **Negative Windows:**
- **July to early August:** Summer lull, exacerbated by realistic GP sinks (Bond price inflation).
- **Post-releases of holiday TH:** Re-releases risk diminishing long-term supply scarcity.
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Conclusively, Assassin Walk Override remains a medium-risk, high-reward speculative trade. However, balancing with high-liquidity alternatives like dyes or other consistently sought cosmetics minimizes downside.
Ely Intelligence Analysis