### **Vorkath Necromancy Weapon Override Token Analysis** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The Vorkath Necromancy Weapon Override Token is a cosmetic item introduced as part of **RuneScape 3's Necromancy skill update** (August 2023). This token provides an override theme inspired by Vorkath, the recurring undead frost dragon. It was most likely obtainable via **Treasure Hunter promotions** focused on Necromancy cosmetics or limited-time events, though specifics are crucial in understanding its rarity. By virtue of its thematic appeal and association with the highly anticipated Necromancy update, it is positioned as a mid-to-high-tier collectible with growing interest over time. Judging by its price fluctuations and market behavior, the token's rarity is moderate: it occasionally resurfaces, but its price history indicates increasing demand despite periodic supply injections. --- #### **Price History Overview** ##### Data Review: - The price began with modest activity around **12M GP (Nov 2023)** and spiked at **81M GP (Nov 20, 2023)** likely due to speculative hype during the release of the **Black Partyhat** event. The token declined sharply by **early December 2023 (13M-15M GP)** likely due to oversupply as event-driven cosmetics flooded the market. - Recovery started in **January 2024 (45-79M GP)**, escalating alongside new interest in Necromancy cosmetics likely coinciding with profitability peaks after the combat changes. - Spikes and corrections are evident around large wealth influxes like the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)** and **July's Sanctum of Rebirth release**, which introduced high-value player grinds impacting surplus GP. ##### Analysis on Correlated Events: 1. **November-December 2023 Fluctuation:** - The **Black Partyhat release** diverted wealth and attention, temporarily saturating the cosmetic token market. - Market dip followed due to an influx of Treasure Hunter cosmetics during this period. 2. **Combat Updates (March 2024):** - As player focus shifted towards Necromancy after meta rebalancing, Necromancy-themed overrides grew disproportionately in demand, contributing to stable growth in token values. 3. **May 2024 Max Cash Exploit:** - Resulted in massive liquidity flowing into non-consumable collectibles like cosmetics. Prices likely spiked, driven by hoarders during periods of artificial inflation. 4. **June-July 2024 Recovery:** - Post-price hike, token stabilized at **49-74M GP**, bolstered by Necromancy relevance and general appreciation of overrides. --- #### **Current Market Trends and Price Prediction** Given the token's themed exclusivity around Necromancy and cosmetic desirability, combined with the expected decline in new supply post-Necromancy-related promos, **gradual appreciation over the next few months is likely**. However, RuneScape's volatile update cadence calls for caution in prediction. - **Short-Term Trend (2-3 months):** Prices may fluctuate slightly between **65-80M GP**, especially if future PvM or Necromancy mini-updates attach greater aesthetic worth to the token. - **Medium-Term Trend (3-6 months):** A **92-100M GP peak** may emerge as collectible token inventories shrink and wealthy players opt for high-tier Flex items. - **Event-Risk Concerns:** Price resets can occur if Jagex reintroduces the override in Treasure Hunter as a rerun promo, dropping values to **30-40M GP temporarily.** --- #### **Flipping Margins** This token is highly speculative due to niche demand. Volatility presents short-term flipping opportunities with margins ranging between **4M-9M GP per cycle**: - Ideal scenarios center on price gaps caused by **event hype** (e.g., new Necromancy updates). - Flip in low-supply, high-demand windows (weekends or update patch days). --- #### **Related Items to Invest In** To hedge against event-specific risks, diversify into similar cosmetics with historical price growth: 1. **Amulet of Souls ornament kits**: Often spike after PvM meta-shifts. 2. **Black Santa Hat**: Cosmopolitan rarity tied to winter exclusivity bolsters medium-term gains. 3. **Hexhunter Bow**: A PvM-centric rare rising during reinvigorated boss fights or related patches. --- #### **Seasonal & Update Recommendations** ##### Positive Price Drivers: - **Summer Seasons (July to September):** - Player activity rises; wealth surges from PvM releases (e.g., new bosses) enhance cosmetic demand. - **Combat Changes:** Updates with Necromancy or PvM incentivize players to showcase themed overrides. ##### Negative Price Drivers: - **Winter Seasons (November to December):** - Heavy focus on Treasure Hunter promos and event goodies oversaturates the market, dropping values temporarily. --- ### **Conclusion** The Vorkath Necromancy Weapon Override Token is a mid-to-high-tier collectible with promising medium-term growth potential tied to Necromancy’s longevity in the game. Prices will likely stabilize around 70-80M GP in the short term but may peak beyond 100M GP with strategic flipping opportunities. However, players should monitor Jagex updates to avoid impact from temporary over-supplies or sudden market corrections. Diversifying investments into similar rare overrides or tradeable cosmetics ensures consistent returns.