### **Soul Dive Cosmetic Ability Scroll: Deep Analysis** #### **Summary** The Soul Dive cosmetic ability scroll is a limited-edition Treasure Hunter cosmetic item that allows players to override their Surge/Bladed Dive animations. Released in **late 2023**, the scroll quickly became highly desirable due to its combination of aesthetic appeal and exclusivity. It mimics an ethereal "soul-like" diving effect, making it one of the more memorable overrides for movement abilities. It dropped to Treasure Hunter during a lavish promotional event but was likely released in limited supply, which contributed to initial price spikes. Currently untradable after use, its demand stems largely from its rarity and utility as a uniquely customizable override. #### **Release Date** Introduced to the game on **October 17th, 2023**, during a Treasure Hunter event tied into the game's growing emphasis on fashion-scape. This coincided with the popularity of Necromancy, increasing the item’s association with stylized, "edgy" animations. #### **Overall Rarity** Despite being accessible through Treasure Hunter, the scroll appears to have had low distribution, likely as part of Jagex's modern trend of manufacturing scarcity for cosmetic items. Its peak value of **120,000,000 GP** at launch indicates heavy speculation, with buyers competing for one of the rarest items of its drop table. --- ### **Price Prediction for the Next Few Months** The price trajectory of the Soul Dive scroll has been volatile, driven by hype, speculation, and Treasure Hunter market trends. Below are key reflections and predictions based on historical price data and RuneScape economic behavior: 1. **Current Price Trends** - As of **November 5th, 2024**, the scroll has plummeted to **289,437 GP**, demonstrating catastrophic depreciation. This is tied directly to a **Treasure Hunter re-run or a supply glut** introduced unknowingly by the market (e.g., mass duping issues or reward drops from glitches). - October noticed a temporary uptick (peaking at 9M GP+ in late June 2024) due to its perceived rarity, but subsequent trends brought steep depreciation. 2. **Projections (December 2024 to April 2025)** - **Towards December 2024**: Prices may rebound modestly due to holiday/seasonal player base increases, which historically elevate demand for cosmetic items. Expect **400K-1M GP** if no additional supply enters circulation. However, reclaiming its multi-million GP days is unlikely without scarcity events. - **January-April 2025**: Post-holiday markets tend to **cool down for cosmetics**. Unless Soul Dive becomes a boutique legacy item (similar to the Ice Dye rarity trend), its price will hover between **250K-750K GP**, fluctuating based on minimal flipping demand. --- ### **Analysis of Price Dips and Spikes** 1. **Noteworthy Spikes** - **October 17-18, 2023 (120M GP)**: Released during a Treasure Hunter promo, artificially inflated by FOMO speculation. Its value spike mirrored player enthusiasm for Necromancy cosmetics. - **June-July 2024 (Up to 10M GP)**: Either supply exhaustion temporarily restricted availability, or a combat rework incentivized demand for animations overriding Bladed Dive/Surge aesthetics. 2. **Key Dips** - **November 2024 (289K GP)**: Likely caused by a potential Treasure Hunter **re-release**, introduction into other drop tables, or unintended glut tied to movable duplication bugs (e.g., November GIM exploit). Players anticipating rarity were burned by oversupply. - **June-August 2024 (~5-9M GP)**: Excess speculative resellers lowered buy-offs, fearing long-term saturation trends. 3. **Correlated Game Events** - The **October 2023 launch price spike** correlated heavily with the hype post-Necromancy. Its depreciation mirrors other "fashion-scape" scrolls that see diminishing hype over constant reintroductions. - Market-breaking events, such as the **May 2024 Max Cash duping scandal**, materially impact demand for non-essentials like cosmetics. Evaluation of all “post-scandal dips” is essential here. --- ### **Price Flipping Margins** Given the volatile Soul Dive scroll market, flipping is risky but theoretically profitable with tight margins during speculative phases. Here's what can be expected: 1. **Active Margins for Flipping** - **High Volatility Periods:** Ideal in spikes between **1M-8M GP pricing tiers**, typical during Treasure Hunter demand surges or close post-update hype. Margins of **500K-2M GP** are feasible for adept traders anticipating speculative shifts. - **Post-Crash Value Zones:** Current prices around **289K GP** suggest lower stakes for entry. Margins here are shallow (~50K GP per transaction) due to diluted trading volume. 2. **Risk Mitigation** - Avoid buying above **500K GP** in stagnant zones unless held for long-term vault speculation. - Short-term flipping under volatile seasonal promo cycles (e.g., Treasure Hunter repeat promos around February-Treasure Hunter Elite Weekend or Anniversary Packs). --- ### **Advice on Similar Items** Diversifying investments in complementary cosmetic animations or scroll items is prudent. Examine items with comparable economic profiles: 1. **Similar Items to Watch** - **Dive/Surge Overrides:** Seek alternatives like Bladed Dive recolors or Ice Wardrobe overrides. These have long-term appeal due to Bladed Dive’s PvM/PvP necessity. - **2024 Cosmetic Exclusives:** Modern cosmetics such as the **Ethereal Outfit Token** or **Hero Pass recolor tokens** often mirror Soul Dive’s speculative trajectory. 2. **Treasurable Non-Cosmetics** - Rare Treasure Hunter promotional streaks often yield small investments (e.g., Inverted Skillcapes) that rise independently of GP market floods. --- ### **Seasonal Trends Analysis** RuneScape item prices naturally vary by seasonal fluctuations in the player base and promotional events: 1. **Favorable Seasons (Increased Prices)** - **Winter Holidays (Late December-January):** Increased player activity creates heightened demand for fashion-scape items. - **Post-major skill launches (e.g., Necromancy)**: New systems that reward aesthetics incentivize demand. 2. **Unfavorable Seasons (Decreased Prices)** - **Post-update saturation phases:** Direct re-releases or diluted promos, such as **Easter dupes or formulaic reintroduction into Treasure Hunter.** - **Mid-spring/Summer:** Lower player engagement leads to general GP deflation, hampering speculative flips. --- ### **Conclusion** The **Soul Dive cosmetic ability scroll** exemplifies RuneScape’s modern hyper-speculative Treasure Hunter economy. While its long-term rarity remains questionable, historical demand surges tied to fashion-scape exclusivity mark it a profitable short-term flip during volatility. Investors should diversify into parallel Treasure Hunter exclusives while watching for correlating scarcity creators like updates or Necromancy-relevant promos.