### **Soul Surge Cosmetic Ability Scroll Analysis** **Summary, Release, and Rarity** The *Soul Surge Cosmetic Ability Scroll* is an untradable scroll from which players learn the Soul Surge ability override for combat cosmetics. First introduced in October 2023 during a special *Treasure Hunter* promotion, it quickly garnered attention for its unique, ethereal visual effects that accompanied high-powered magic abilities. It was marketed as a rare promotional item tied to a Necromancy-based aesthetic, aligning with the skill’s then-recent release in August 2023. Rarity of the scroll comes from its limited availability during its Treasure Hunter promotional window. Its appeal to combat-geared cosmetic collectors, particularly those with a recent interest in Necromancy’s aesthetics, cemented the item as a sought-after asset. However, the broader RuneScape market dynamics caused dramatic pricing volatility since its release. --- ### **Historical Pricing Trends and Analysis** #### **Timeline and Data Interpretation** 1. **October 2023 (Initial Release):** - *Peak price*: 140M GP (10/17/2023) - *Major decline*: 90M GP to 20M GP within the same day. The scroll initially spiked as collectors and speculators clamored for it following its Treasure Hunter release. However, historical similarities with other Treasure Hunter cosmetics indicate that demand tends to diminish rapidly due to supply floods from resold items. 2. **November 2023 - February 2024 (Steady Decline):** - Prices stabilized within the 10M-20M GP range by mid-November. The decline here correlates with reduced promotional hype and the introduction of the *Black Partyhat* event (12/2023), which shifted player spending priorities. Furthermore, the reappearance of GP from lures and dupe recoveries post-Red Portal abuse in November 2023 likely provided additional liquidity for competing items, deflating interest in lower-tier cosmetics. 3. **February 2024 - May 2024 (Rising Interest):** - Prices bumped to their pre-sale peak of ~12M GP. This period coincided with successive combat updates in March and April 2024, where visual additions like ability overrides gained renewed popularity. Activity spikes in combat content (Necromancy and PvM updates) likely incentivized players to invest in aesthetics tied to their builds. 4. **Jun 2024 - Nov 2024 (Severe Dip):** - *Latest price on record*: ~550K GP as of 11/05/2024. The catastrophic drop aligns with two market-shaking events: the May 2024 *Max Cash Exploit* and widespread reintroduction of GP rewards via Treasure Hunter in June 2024. The surge in RWT demand for bonds post-bond price increases may also have generated downward pressure, as disposable GP supply contracted for mid-to-high-tier collectibles. The most significant reason for the final price crash likely stems from surplus giveaways, such as Treasure Hunter overhauls flooding the game with underappreciated cosmetic scroll duplicates. --- ### **Future Price Prediction (Next 6 Months)** 1. **Q4 2024 Stability (~600K-1M GP):** With the market flooded and hype dissipated, expect prices to hover in the low range due to lack of scarcity, in a way similar to the *illumination animation scroll* trajectory. However, ultra-low entry points for cosmetic investors ($550K range today) may attract flippers, creating occasional bursts toward 1M GP if artificial scarcity is applied. 2. **Q1-Q2 2025 Recovery to ~4M-6M GP:** A potential *Treasure Hunter item vault* update, discontinuity announcement, or unexpected synergy with a Necromancy expansion could inject new interest. Similar cases include *Blightbound Crossbows*, whose prices quadrupled after Jagex limited supply. These factors would likely drive speculative buys, and prices could stabilize higher. Absent of such news, however, prices will likely remain low. --- ### **Flipping Margins and Profit Assessment** Current *Soul Surge Scroll* margins offer modest flipping opportunities. For hyperactive day traders, flipping between 450-600K GP could yield semi-consistent profits of 50-150K GP per scroll depending on demand cycles. Risk lies in massive price undercuts or additional supply reshuffles via promotions. Maximal flipping profits often occur immediately post-discontinuation. **Estimated flipping margin (short-term): 10-20%.** --- ### **Comparable Items for Investment** 1. **Similar Long-Term Cosmetics:** - *Illumination Ability Scroll:* Similar trajectory during early discontinuation/disinterest cycles, with unexpected highs during PvM updates. - *Overrides tied to new content skills* (e.g., Necromancy Peaks): Items like *Death Knell (200/year to 800M) + Forgotten Spinning Wheels boosts rare flipping. ---