### Summary of the Fungal Tendrils Cosmetic Ability Scroll The Fungal Tendrils ability scroll is a cosmetic item in RuneScape 3 that modifies the appearance of the Tendrils abilities (e.g., *Corruption Shot*, *Corruption Blast*, etc.) to feature fungal aesthetic effects. It was released as a reward from *Treasure Hunter* during the *Shrooming Bloom* promotion. Its release date is believed to be late 2023, during the peak period of the *Hero Pass* backlash. It has not been directly re-released since, contributing to its mid- to high-tier rarity. This item is a prized cosmetic primarily due to its limited availability and the demand for prestigious outfits and gear in high-tier PvM or social settings. Ranking alongside other exclusive Treasure Hunter rewards, its price is influenced by its cosmetic status, utility in heightening gameplay immersion, and speculative investments. ### Rarity The Fungal Tendrils scroll closely aligns with other discontinued Treasure Hunter cosmetics in terms of rarity. While not as rare as iconic holiday items like the *Black Santa Hat* or *Christmas Scythe*, it holds respectable value due to its exclusivity. Its limited timeframe availability during pervasive economic instability (i.e., late 2023/early 2024) added additional speculative appeal. Dupes, player hacks, and the release of alternate investment items have since carved more erratic trendlines. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Trends **Recent Price Movements** - **Late 2023 (Launch):** Its initial value hovered around 100M-150M GP, bolstered by high engagement during the Hero Pass era. - **December 2023 - January 2024:** Prices reached 218M GP following the release of the *Black Santa Hat*, as investors diversified portfolios into established high-end cosmetics like the Tendrils scroll to hedge against potential economic shocks tied to holiday rares. - **February 2024:** Prices spiked dramatically (275M GP at peak) due to economic instability caused by repeated hacks, dupes, and speculative gambling in the Max Cash economy post-Necromancy release. - **March 2024 - April 2024:** Heavy volatility emerged from Treasure Hunter GP injections (e.g., 1B on April 10) and dupes, causing prices to collapse to 49M GP by March, then 40M GP by early April following Easter dupes. This initiated panic-selling. - **May 2024:** Modest recovery to 63.7M GP was noted, coinciding with Treasure Hunter item removals and renewed speculative curiosity. **Insights from Price Dips/Spikes** 1. **Economic Disruptions:** Dupes, hacks, and Treasure Hunter injections substantially impact demand for speculative items. February 2024's 275M GP price was fueled almost entirely by uncertainty and market hoarding during the chaotic Max Cash/cloning exploit era. 2. **Rare Item Synergies:** Its early values surged alongside announcements like the *Black Santa Hat*, proving that complementary cosmetic demand drives competition between mid-tier investors. 3. **Rebounds in Stability:** Following destabilizing drops (e.g., Treasure Hunter GP releases), recovery typically fulfills speculative cycles—characteristic of April-May's rebound to ~60M GP. --- ### Price Prediction (Mid-2024 Onwards) Historical trends highlight a predictable cycle of speculative buying and panic selling tied to game events and updates. Assuming no re-release occurs, here is the forecast: - **Short-Term (July - August 2024):** A spike to 75M-85M GP is probable as interest renews with the *Sanctum of Rebirth* release and anticipated Treasure Hunter rotations ahead of potential mid-year economic resets. - **Mid-Term (September - November 2024):** Expect minor corrections (65M-70M GP range) during the quieter pre-holiday period but with long-term downward pressure if Treasure Hunter reintroduces fungal-themed cosmetics or players liquidate for holiday rares. - **Long-Term (2024 Year-End):** Trendlines suggest a 50M-60M GP valuation by December, considering seasonal events typically focus players on new cosmetics (e.g., Christmas rares). However, further dupe scandals or new GP-stabilization measures could override stability. --- ### Flipping Margins and Techniques The Fungal Tendrils scroll offers moderate flipping potential due to its erratic price movements. Recent trends suggest: - **Average Spread:** 3-8M GP per flip, or ~5-10% consistent margins, particularly during speculative buying phases. - **Optimal Periods:** Look for opportunities during GP injection periods (e.g., post-April Treasure Hunter dupe), where panic sellers undervalue due to liquidity concerns. Buy during dips (e.g., sub-50M) and offload post-recoveries. - **Risk Management:** Sudden Jagex reintroductions (e.g., Treasure Hunter) pose risks. Monitor the *Treasure Hunter Schedule* and patch updates for unannounced cosmetics rotations. --- ### Similar Items to Consider Investing In Diversification reduces risk. Consider these equivalent mid-tier cosmetics with similar speculative behavior: 1. **Operant Sand Scythe:** Comparable rarity, high aesthetic appeal, and market volatility. Prone to speculative spikes near combat updates. 2. **Frostwalker Outfit Pieces:** Seasonal exclusivity ensures high recovery trends, albeit more limited than items with combat tie-ins. 3. **Necroplasmic Onslaught Scroll:** Cosmetic appeal dynamic similar to Fungal Tendrils but enjoys sustained demand due to Necromancy's utility meta. --- ### Seasonal and Economic Factors #### Positive Price Periods (Bull Runs): - **Post-Patch Recovery:** Tendrils scroll thrives after GP-flooding events stabilize (e.g., post-Treasure Hunter). - **Holiday Synergy:** Winter holiday events attract general interest in speculative items, leading to temporary values spikes. #### Negative Price Trends (Bearish): - **Treasure Hunter GP Dumps:** Over-inflation periods weaken speculative demand. - **Re-release Seasons:** Confirmed or rumored Treasure Hunter rotations directly stifle demand. - **Post-Holiday Liquidations:** January often sees price dips as players offload speculative holiday investments. --- ### Final Investment Strategy Fungal Tendrils remains a strong mid-tier speculative investment owing to its exclusivity and predictable recovery cycles. Employ dip-buying tactics during large-scale market disruptions (e.g., GP dupes or hacks) while offloading during pre-holiday speculative peaks. Diversify holdings into complementary cosmetic scrolls (Necroplasmic Onslaught), viable seasonal rares (e.g., Frostwalker), or hedge with historically stable high-tier investments like *Partyhats*.