### **Scurvy the Cannon Pet Token: Overview and Rarity** The Scurvy the Cannon Pet Token is a cosmetic pet token used to unlock an animated cannon-themed pet in RuneScape 3. This pet token is highly niche but appeals to collectors who focus on rare, vanity, or novelty items. Released during a Treasure Hunter promotion (often tied to seasonal or thematic events), its original entry point was gated by the RNG of Treasure Hunter rather than an in-game activity. #### **Release Date & Popularity** While the exact release date of the token is unknown from public-facing sources, its presence in the market showcases entry tied to Treasure Hunter through low-probability chests, typical of other ultra-rare pets. Thus, its rarity stems not from player participation but through gamble-like promotional avenues. #### **Rarity Insights** - Relatively limited in circulation due to the one-off nature of the Treasure Hunter event. - The token's rarity is artificially inflated by lack of regular re-releases, except for occasional returns in re-themed Treasure Hunter events. For mid-2024, Scurvy saw an exponential price increase (from ≤10M GP in early 2024 to 30M GP in Q4), indicating scarcity compounded by circulation bottlenecks, increased token hoarding, or re-emerging collector interest. --- ### **Price Data Analysis and Prediction** #### **Overview of Price History** 1. **Early Stagnation (~2023-04 to Early 2024):** Prices stayed under 10M GP with occasional dips below 1M shortly after release. Reasons include over-saturation due to Treasure Hunter availability and lack of high collector demand. 2. **Initial Price Surge (Mid-2024):** June-August 2024 saw growth to ~10-20M, likely triggered by speculation after Jagex announced a fresh wave of Grand Exchange price crawling for rare collectibles (post-Max Cash rework). 3. **Massive Spike (Q3-Q4 2024):** By late August-October, prices nearly doubled to 30M. This could be due to scarcity concerns after duplicitous gold influx (e.g., Max Cash exploit) inflating the demand for rare, capped-supply tokens. #### **Possible Catalysts for Price Movement** 1. **Historical Dupes and Updates:** Surges in gold availability (e.g., Max Cash exploit, GIM bank bug) drive up prices for niche or rare items, making Scurvy a prime speculative target during inflationary waves. 2. **Deliberate Hoarding or Merchanting:** With relatively low cost of entry (~10M in mid-2024), merchants likely accumulated the token to drive up scarcity artificially. 3. **Necromancy & Mining/Smithing Rework (Aug. 2024):** A revitalization of the player base led to increased in-game activity and higher general prices for collectibles as GP velocity increased. #### **Price Prediction (End of 2024 – Mid-2025)** - **Short-Term (1-3 months): Stabilization around 30M GP.** With no significant updates in the immediate horizon, prices should plateau, subject only to speculative trading. - **Mid-Term (3-6 months): Gradual softening to ~20-25M GP.** Unless Jagex reintroduces Scurvy in a similar Treasure Hunter event (which might crash prices below 10M), collector-item tokens usually see attrition as recent hype diminishes. --- ### **Flipping Margins and Techniques** - **Typical Spread:** - Based on historical trends and current pricing, flipping margins for Scurvy hover around **5-12% per token,** assuming ample liquidity (buy near 30M, sell closer to 31.5-32M in Q4 2024). - **Flipping Advice:** 1. Maintain discipline against holding beyond spikes — most profit will come from short-term high-frequency trading of tokens near hype peaks. 2. Watch incoming patch notes for content updates/events that might re-release related tokens. --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In** 1. **Comparable Cosmetic Pet Tokens:** - **Rainbow's End Token:** Associated with Treasure Hunter and generally undervalued compared to ultra-rare animations. - **Dwarven Instinct Aura Tokens:** Historically spikes after Mining/Smithing-related updates such as mid-2024's rework. - **Guthixian Butterflies (Animation Token):** Driven by consistent demand from collectors and often overlooked by speculators. 2. **Broader Rare Alternatives:** - **Black Partyhat (Dec. 2023 Release):** A modern collectible that correlates closely with high-end GP influx events. Currently trending upward. - **Discontinued Treasure Hunter Cosmetics:** Look for ultra-rare particles like Sunshine Particle Token, which sees spikes when new fashionscape metas emerge. --- ### **Seasonality and Outcome Trends** 1. **Positive Seasons (Buyer Markets):** - **After Major Updates:** New skill launches (e.g., Necromancy, Aug. 2023) or economic overhauls (e.g., Max Cash patch, May 2024) inflate money velocity, driving bubble-like demand for rare items like Scurvy tokens. 2. **Negative Seasons (Seller Markets):** - **Mid-Lull Periods (Jan/Feb):** Without updates or new player influx, speculative items historically drop in value as hoarders liquidate. Optimal seasons for token investments are during or immediately after large Treasure Hunter promotions when prices are deeply undervalued due to supply saturation. --- Developing a diversified long-term flipping strategy using Scurvy alongside grandfathered rare tokens will maximize yields while accounting for RuneScape's economy volatility.