### **Snow Cape Analysis** #### **Summary and Release** The Snow Cape is a cosmetic override item released in December 2014 during a Christmas-themed Treasure Hunter promotion. It was originally obtainable through festive chests and holiday events but has since become a rare and highly collectible item in RuneScape 3's secondary markets. The demand for the Snow Cape primarily stems from nostalgia, its unique winter aesthetic, and scarcity due to the limited supply as the promotion ended years ago. #### **Historical Rarity** While its initial availability was relatively common via Treasure Hunter in 2014, the Snow Cape quickly became rare after its event ended. Its tradeable status ensures its place as a desirable item among collectors. However, the rarity fluctuates depending on re-releases, market crashes (often tied to large gold influx events), and various RuneScape economy disruptions. --- ### **Price History and Trends** #### **Highlights of Price Movements** - **2021 to Early 2022:** Initial high value (~100m GP in early 2021) saw fluctuation due to gold inflation from the January 2021 dupe. As prices of rares normalized later that year following the Croesus update and Fresh Start Worlds announcement, the Snow Cape stabilized between 30-50m GP. - **Late 2022:** A massive price crash occurred due to the *Wilderness PvP removal* (October) and *Fresh Start Worlds* (September 22), where newer players flooding the market liquidated old cosmetics for lower prices to fund skilling goals. The Snow Cape fell to sub-30m, lowest being ~12.7m by January 2023. - **2023 Spikes:** The *Necromancy skill release* (August 7) brought a resurgence in GP earnings, driving cosmetic speculations upwards. Similarly, the *Hero Pass backlash* (September) temporarily destabilized markets due to decreased player confidence; however, it recovered within months. - **2024 Dips:** Events such as the *Easter Egg pet dupe* (April 1), *Max Cash* exploit (May 15), and *GIM bank bug dupe* (November 1) all contributed to a general depression of item values, with Snow Cape touching values below 200k GP. - **Current Price:** As of late 2024, the Snow Cape has remarkably bottomed out at **126k GP**, largely due to excessive influx of GP and item dupes eroding collectible stability. #### **Economic Events and Influence** The Snow Cape's price is highly tied to player confidence, GP supply, and whether nostalgic collectible demand can outweigh market destabilizations. Its rarity should indicate higher sustained value, but the sheer volume of GP injections via exploits capped its recovery momentum over time. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** **Short-Term (12/2024 to 03/2025):** - **Projected Low (120k-140k GP):** Lack of re-release currently indicates mild demand. However, continued dupes and exploits reduce confidence in speculative items, which will keep prices suppressed. - **Projected High (300k-500k GP):** Holiday nostalgia (December-January) might create a demand bump, especially with less comparable items appearing in Treasure Hunter. **Factors Favoring Spike:** No new exploit or game-breaking economy resets; Jagex introducing cosmetic rarity stabilizations or enforcement. **Factors Favoring Dip:** Re-releases of older holiday cosmetics (a possibility for the next Christmas event); another Treasure Hunter economy shift. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Flipping Snow Capes is notably volatile due to their low price point in the current market. Players often target **10-20% margins**, buying during off-peak hours or during Treasure Hunter-heavy events when cosmetics flood the market. Example flipping profit: - Buy at ~120k GP (bulk buyers often set purchase orders below current prices). - Flip at ~150-180k GP during higher demand periods (weekends, holiday momentum). - Margin: ~30-70k GP per flip. --- ### **Complementary Items to Invest In** To diversify from Snow Cape speculation, consider investing in similar nostalgia-core cosmetics or underappreciated event rares: 1. **Festive Ice Amulet (Christmas 2015)** - Another ice-themed item with seasonal demand spikes. 2. **Candy Cane (Christmas event)** - Frequently overlooked but historically spikes during holiday nostalgia. 3. **Pumpkin Amulet (Halloween)** - Highly undervalued post-October but sees boosts during Christmas due to gifting trends. 4. **Black Partyhat Replica (December 2023 release prizes)** - Slightly newer, but stable during holiday speculation periods. --- ### **Seasonal Price Outcomes** **Positive Seasons:** 1. **December-January (Holiday Collectibles):** Player sentiment driven by nostalgia and holiday hype makes it the best season to hold or flip winter/Christmas-themed cosmetics. 2. **February-April (Prevention of Duplication Events):** This window often follows stabilized updates, reducing market panic. **Negative Seasons:** 1. **September-November:** Historically, September leads to major RuneScape economy shifts (Hero Pass 2023 backlash, Wilderness PvP removal, etc.), contributing to price depressions. 2. **Mid-Year Updates (May-August):** Necromancy-style updates or skill-based reworks detract player focus from cosmetics to performance-enhancing items. --- This comprehensive breakdown of the Snow Cape should help with speculation, flipping, and understanding its market performance amidst RuneScape’s ever-changing economy.