### Summary of Vis Wax, Release, and Rarity **Vis Wax** is a crafting material integral to RuneScape 3, primarily used for extending the duration of **aura activations** and resetting **Divine Location daily limits**. Created through the **Rune Goldberg Machine** (requiring 50 Runecrafting), the wax's availability is contingent on the runes required each day, resulting in fluctuating supply levels. Introduced on **July 14, 2014**, it quickly became a mainstay item in the economy. Its rarity is largely dictated by the randomization of rune requirements; optimal runs yield more wax but depend heavily on player access to specific, often expensive runes (like Soul or Blood). Additionally, boosts like the **Wicked Hood** or **modified Penguin Staff** can increase efficiency, but not all players utilize these methods, keeping Vis Wax semi-rare. --- ### Price Analysis and Predictions #### Historical Trends Looking at the price data provided, Vis Wax has shown notable volatility, ranging between 17,376 GP and 21,123 GP during 2023-2024. A closer analysis shows the following trends: - **Price Dip Patterns**: - Significant dips occurred in early 2023 after the **Scrimshaw dupe** (January 2023). This was tied to increased inflation, reducing purchasing power across all items. - Prices stagnated or dipped during the **Hero Pass controversy** (September 2023), when player engagement temporarily decreased. - **Price Spikes**: - A distinct spike occurred during the **Necromancy skill release** (August 2023), as Vis Wax demand surged for disruptions caused by new meta training. - December 2023's **Black Partyhat release** may have indirectly driven stabilizing prices. After large events like these, consistent items like Vis Wax are used more by players redistributing general wealth to practical resources. #### Future Outlook The **combat update in March 2024**, followed by the **Treasure Hunter gold injection (April 2024)**, likely fueled the 2024 price drop to 17,376 GP. However, Vis Wax prices will typically recover because its utility in managing dailies, auras, and general convenience ensures constant demand, particularly for mid- to high-level players who want to optimize efficiency. **Price Prediction (Mid-2024 to Late 2024):** - Expect prices to climb modestly, stabilizing at **18,500–20,000 GP** by late Q3 2024. - The **Mining and Smithing rework (August 2024)** and **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)** PvM content will reignite interest in aura extensions and Divine Locations, increasing demand. - Conversely, the **August bond price increase (to $8.99)** may limit liquidity in the economy, stalling price spikes. --- ### Flipping Margins and Strategies #### Typical Flipping Margins Vis Wax is a staple-flipping item due to its regular price oscillations: - Daily margins for Vis Wax frequently hover around **300–800 GP per unit**, especially during daily rune requirement inconsistencies. - Example: If a day favors high-demand runes like Soul or Blood, expect less Vis Wax to be generated, leading to scarcity-driven pricing spikes. - Bulk flipping (1,000+ units) is common since merchant clans frequently rely on Vis Wax as a low-risk target item. #### Flipping Advice - **Prediction Timing**: Monitor rune cycles tied to common demand dips; purchase on days requiring cheap or overstocked runes like Air, Fire, and Mind. - **Sell**: Target days after major updates or high-player activity when aura usage spikes post-PvM/XP events. - **Tip**: Favor **weekend markets**, where casual player engagement increases demand. --- ### Related Items to Consider 1. **Unfocused Energy and Signs of the Porter**: - These items, crafted via Divination, benefit from similar daily-run Cap mechanics. Their prices are directly linked to skiller activity and complement Vis Wax as an accessible efficiency tool. 2. **Divination Memories & Divine Charges**: - Divine Charges, necessary for Invention, share a similar market rhythm and benefit from Vis Wax synergies (via location resets). Prices surge during skilling competitions or invention-heavy periods (e.g., post-Sanctum content). 3. **Auras and Bonus XP Stars**: - While not directly linked, their prices are signals. Cheaper auras on the GE often predict reduced Vis Wax volatility. --- ### Seasonal Impact on Vis Wax Prices #### **Positive Drivers:** - Updates introducing heavy PvM or skilling content, such as new bosses or reworks, increase Vis Wax prices. Examples include: - **Summer Updates (e.g., July/August 2024 Sanctum of Rebirth)**: Demand surges due to a high player engagement period. - Major holidays like **December** often stabilize or inflate prices due to returning seasonal players. #### **Negative Drivers:** - High inflation periods: Exploits, dupes, or Treasure Hunter GP injections flood the economy, diluting buying power and reducing consistency in consumable sales like Vis Wax. - The **April 2024 TH gold flooding** event illustrates this trend clearly. - Playerbase controversy periods: Updates such as **Hero Pass backlash or server stability issues** can decrease transaction volume on competitive staples, lowering prices. --- In summation, Vis Wax's price stability is directly tied to utility-driven demand, content releases, and seasonal engagement. Investing in Vis Wax during dips (e.g., post-update inflationary events) while timing flips around skilling/PvM release spikes is an optimal strategy.