### **Summary of Noble Shoulder Cape** The **Noble Shoulder Cape** is a tradeable cosmetic cape with roots in Elite Skilling Outfits and formal aesthetics. Released on **April 11, 2022**, the cape was tied to Treasure Hunter promotional events but quickly became a symbol of prestige for cosmetic collectors due to its rarity and understated elegance compared to more flamboyant cosmetics. Its appeal lies in its simplicity and compatibility with RuneScape's high-society themes. From the initial Treasure Hunter allocation, the cape's supply was relatively limited, solidifying its status as a collectible. While it doesn't hold utility beyond its cosmetic value, such items often see notable price movement tied to player nostalgia, hoarding, and market speculation. --- ### **Overall Rarity** The Noble Shoulder Cape's rarity stems from two primary factors: 1. **Time-gating through Treasure Hunter:** Unlike permanent treasure trail pieces, this cape was time-limited, with a finite number entering the game during its promotion. 2. **Market attrition:** As collectors and investors hoard these items long-term, active tradeable supply remains constrained, further inflating demand. --- ### **Historical Price Movements and Analysis** The provided price data for the Noble Shoulder Cape highlights a tumultuous journey since early 2023: 1. **February 2023 - March 2023:** - The cape spiked from **113M → 303M GP**, with sharp fluctuations caused by the **Scrimshaw dupe** (Jan 29, 2023). The massive influx of gold led to price hyperinflation for pure luxury items. - The peak of **303M** mirrored other expensive Treasure Hunter items as players looked to park excess wealth. 2. **April 2023 - July 2023:** - **Steep crash from 303M → ~15M:** After Jagex curbed the Scrimshaw dupe's effects, alongside large account bans and gold wipes, investor sentiment sharply turned. A low of **15M** was reached around April 2023 as sellers flooded the market to salvage value. 3. **May 2023 - Early 2024:** - Volatility resumed, with minor spikes caused by speculative buyers during updates like **Hero Pass release backlash (Sept. 2023)** and **Black Partyhat release (Dec. 2023)**. - Periodic lows were correlated with gold sinks (e.g., **Necromancy-related leveling costs in Aug. 2023**) and liquidation for fresh rares. 4. **June 2024 - October 2024:** - Recent upward trends saw the cape rise steadily to **~25M (Oct. 2024)** post-**Mining and Smithing rework (Aug. 2024)** and max cash cap adjustments (May 2024). Increased skilling-related GP generation combined with hoarding appears to have driven this recovery. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)** Based on historical trends, market conditions, and potential catalysts: 1. **November 2024 - December 2024:** Expect upward momentum as winter events (often GP-generating, e.g., Christmas rares) drive deflation in gold’s value. With cosmetics like the Noble Shoulder Cape being a mid-tier value store, prices could stabilize around **30M–32M GP**. 2. **January 2025 - March 2025:** Prices will likely correct slightly post-holiday demand surges. However, Treasure Hunter re-releases, if introduced, could push the cape to lows around **20M–22M GP.** 3. **Hypothetical Long-Term Factors:** - A **Treasure Hunter rotation re-release** or **replica item introduction** could severely impact price (~50% immediate crash). - Conversely, events creating further GP ramps (e.g., another duping scandal, gold inflation from Treasure Hunter) could push levels back toward highs of **35M+ GP.** --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Noble Shoulder Cape’s market volatility offers decent flipping margins when properly timed. Observations: - **Low Activity Periods:** Margins between **2M–4M** per flip during inactive trading phases like pre-patch lulls when supply outpaces immediate demand. - **Event Hype Periods:** Margins boost to around **6M–8M** as demand drives short-term peaks (e.g., during updates or speculative surges). - **Advice:** Focus flipping small stock (1-2 units) right before visible market catalysts such as Treasure Hunter promotions or GP-generating Treasure Maps. --- ### **Related Items for Investment** Other cosmetics and low-utility but prestigious items often rise and fall alongside the Noble Shoulder Cape due to similar trading psychology. 1. **Investment Pairs:** - **Golden Partyhats:** These behave similarly as sentimental mid-tier rares with speculative hype. - **Shattered Worlds Cosmetics (2021):** Items tied to discontinued content or niche-player achievements. 2. **Complementary Alternatives:** - **Hallowed Sepulchre Capes (OSRS-inspired):** Niche but represent an aesthetic trend toward simpler endgame fashion. --- ### **Seasonal Market Advice** 1. **Positive Seasons:** - The **holiday season (Nov.–Jan.):** Players often become wealthier via rare treasure drops, token trading, or GP inflation (e.g., Christmas). These periods see stable or rising cosmetic prices. - **Event Patches & Skill Updates:** Anything increasing average player spending power creates cosmetic demand spikes. 2. **Negative Seasons:** - Mid-year (Apr.–July): Typically see **liquidation phases**, where cosmetics decline as players shift GP into necessary items (gear purchases around boss releases, combat reworks, etc.). - Post-major Treasure Hunter promotions also lead to temporary **oversupply pressure**. --- ### **Conclusion** The Noble Shoulder Cape succeeds as a mid-tier collectible driven by speculative trading cycles. Despite historical price instability, its current upward trajectory positions it as a viable investment for short-term gains (flipping) and long-term inflation hedging. Careful attention to game updates, re-releases, and community market sentiment will help maximize value trading opportunities.