### Royal Shoulder Cape (Black) Analysis #### Summary, Release Date, and Rarity The **Royal Shoulder Cape (Black)** is one of the aesthetically minimalist yet highly sought-after cosmetic capes in RuneScape 3. Released as part of an **exclusive Treasure Hunter promotion in February 2023**, its sleek black design makes it a highly desirable item among collectors and fashion-scape enthusiasts. Initially, it was obtainable through a limited availability mechanic, inherently tying its scarcity to how many players capitalized on the promotion or hoarded it for long-term investments. The cape holds substantial rarity due to its promotional timing, being a Treasure Hunter reward. As a result, its availability depended entirely on event participation, making the supply finite post-event. It did not appear in subsequent promotions, as of yet. Furthermore, the time of its release was particularly pivotal due to the **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)**, which introduced immense inflation, allowing some players to hoard items like this cape. This contributed to its initial volatile prices. --- #### Historical Price Trends and Influencing Events The historical prices of the cape paint a fascinating picture of RuneScape’s market dynamics. A steep decline, some spikes, and long-term appreciation intervals reflect external influences, including dupes, game events, and investor behavior. 1. **Price Explosion Post-Release (February–March 2023)** Shortly after its release, the Royal Shoulder Cape (Black) peaked at **200M GP** due to intense demand from collectors combined with thin supply. However, the mass availability of dupe-generated wealth from the **Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023)** and **player account hacks (February 2023)** artificially inflated prices to extreme levels, with brief moments of insane highs (e.g., **256M** GP listings and speculative spikes up to **166M+ GP**). This period reflected speculative trading frenzy but wasn’t sustainable. 2. **Market Adjustments and Crash (March–June 2023)** Following inflation stabilization and reduced market liquidity (as Jagex took moderation measures), the cape sharply depreciated, with prices crashing from **48M GP on March 20, 2023**, to **19M GP by June 2023**. This decline was amplified by the **Necromancy skill announcement (July 2023)**, which shifted player spending toward gear/meta-futureproofing. 3. **Current Stability and Recovery (2024)** Prices began recovering by mid-2024 after Necromancy’s influx stabilized. The release of the **Max Cash update exploit (May 2024)** introduced more liquid GP into player hands, likely feeding high-end collecting. This has propelled the cape from **29.5M GP (April 2024)** to its current **35M GP as of June 2024**, showing healthy demand growth among wealthier players after a consolidation phase. --- #### Future Price Prediction (2024–2025) **Near-Term Outlook (Next 3–6 Months):** Given recent performance and Treasure Hunter trends, the cape is likely to appreciate slowly. Developments like the **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)** are expected to refocus player spending on PVM setups, temporarily stifling price ascension. By late 2024, however, the inflow of GP added by key exploits and seasonal Treasure Hunter events will further enhance cosmetic demand. Expect a value range between **40M–45M GP** by November/December 2024. **Medium-Term (1 Year+):** Should Jagex avoid re-releasing the item, scarcity will support long-term appreciation. The likelihood of **60M+ GP** by mid-2025 is strong, particularly if cosmetics continue growing as a secondary investment market similar to discontinued items. #### Key Risks: - A **re-release or recolor variant** could devalue the original. - A game-wide economic rebalancing update could erode high-value item trading by reducing overall GP circulation. --- #### Typical Flipping Margins The cape is moderately liquid, making it a suitable flipping asset for experienced merchant players. Margins typically remain around **3-5%** in stable periods (e.g., buying at 33M and selling at 35M). However, during updates or spikes in trading volume (e.g., Treasure Hunter promos or skilling updates), margins can inflate to a **6-8% swing** due to higher fluctuations in demand. **Advice for flipping:** - Purchase during low-traffic hours (server resets) when offers compete to sell quickly. - Sell post-game update announcements or on weekends (Saturday evening server peaks) for maximum returns. --- #### Similar Items to Invest In For diversification, I recommend pairing investments in the Royal Shoulder Cape (Black) with other mid-tier, cosmetics-driven items that align in target demographics. These include: - **Dark Ice Shard Cloak:** Released as part of previous holiday events, likely due for demand resurgence. - **Blood Tuxedo Set:** A black-themed high-demand cosmetic that appreciates alongside similar aesthetics. - **Gilded Katana:** Relatively rare and trades sporadically, achieving high flipping margins during Treasure Hunter return hype. --- #### Seasonal Impacts on Prices 1. **Positive:** - **Winter (December–January):** Holiday seasons boost the RS3 economy as player activity spikes. Fresh GP from promos and new player influx drives demand for high-end cosmetics. - **Anniversaries or Milestone Events:** Items tied to Treasure Hunter theme resurges generally follow demand alongside similar promo releases. 2. **Negative:** - **Skill Expansion Updates:** Updates like **Necromancy (August 2023)** or **Mining and Smithing Rework (August 2024)** tend to suppress luxury item prices temporarily as GP is diverted to combat/meta investments.