### Summary of the Item The Royal Shoulder Cape (Red) is a cosmetic item originally a promotional reward from Treasure Hunter. It debuted during the *Victorian-style Royal Outfit* Treasure Hunter event in February 2016. As an outfit component, it was sought after for its elegant design and rarity, appealing particularly to players favoring cosmetic richness over functionality. Post-event, it became unavailable from conventional means, entering the rare tradeable cosmetics market. This item's allure increased sharply after the introduction of Keepsake Keys, which allowed permanent cosmetic overrides, fueling demand. The red variant’s value fluctuates due to its aesthetic popularity and limited supply caused by its relative lack of re-releases, positioning it as a mid-tier Legacy cosmetic. It also represents a market window for investors aiming to trade non-combat fashion items. ### Release Date: February 2016 during the Royal Outfit Treasure Hunter event. ### Rarity: Moderately rare relative to its category. Prices suggest a supply bottleneck, especially when high disposable GP enters the economy. Although cheaper than legendary discontinued items (e.g., holiday rares), its desirability places it within the niche "prestigious mid-level rares." --- ### Price Analysis and Timeline Breakdown: 1. **Early 2023 (Jan-Mar)**: Extremely volatile period due to the *Scrimshaw Dupe* (700B+ GP influx) and mass player hacks. The item spiked to *60M GP* briefly before crashing back to *40M-50M*, following rapid liquidity extraction in the rares market. 2. **Mar-May 2023**: The cape’s historic price cap (*60M GP* on Feb 27) nosedived after Hero Pass backlash coincided with Necromancy’s hype (spurring GP sinks for new upgrades) and exploits like the *Red Portal Bug*. By May, the cape settled at a moderate band of *4M-5M GP*, illustrating long-term instability. 3. **Oct 2023-Jan 2024**: A steep fall occurred following Necromancy’s meta cementation (*ancient currency demand* constraining GP liquidity). Additionally, the introduction of the *Black Partyhat* diverted collector interest. It bottomed out around *1M GP* in October 2023. 4. **2024 Recovery (Feb-Apr)**: Incremental gains unfolded due to: - Combat updates rebalancing the economy (March 2024) - Collectors reinvesting after stabilization post-*Easter Eggs Duplication (April).* The shoulder cape climbed to *~2M GP* by April 2024. --- ### Key Price Insights and Factors to Watch 1. **Dupes and Exploits**: Historical data demonstrates high vulnerability to GP influx events (e.g., *Treasure Hunter excesses*, *GP dupes*). The 2023 scrimshaw exploit inflated prices sharply, only to crash them in the aftermath. Similar trends in the future could distort prices unpredictably. 2. **Rarity Misperception**: Players inaccurately perceive this cape as ultra-rare due to its natural market scarcity over time. This puts it in a speculative trading bubble during hype periods, where cosmetic collectors overpay short-term. 3. **Treasure Hunter Additions (April 10, 2024)**: Jagex’s GP injection into Treasure Hunter aligned with a 5-8% increase for rare items like the cape. This mirrors past spikes caused by TH-related GP dumps (e.g., 2022 Bond Price Adjustments). 4. **Market Maturity and Cash Supply**: High GP sinks (e.g., Necromancy's skill release, future equipment tier scaling) will temper price growth. Conversely, cash waves (e.g., *Max Cash caveats from May 2024*) could result in temporary spikes. --- ### Price Prediction (May-October 2024): - **Short-term (May-June 2024)**: Expect prices to rise gradually, reaching *~2.7M GP* due to fluctuating demand from collectors following the *Sanctum of Rebirth* update. - **Medium-term (June-August 2024)**: Summer updates (*Mining/Smithing Rework*) could trigger either: - A dip toward *2.4M GP* as GP liquidity redistributes OR - A small spike (~*3M GP*) if the cape gains a resurgence in visibility from content creators. - **Long-term (August-October 2024)**: A modest stabilization between *2.6M and 3.5M GP*, barring unanticipated economic events. --- ### Flipping Margins - **Current Spread**: General flipping ranges between *200-300K GP per trade* as of Q2 2024. Rapid micro-flipping during demand spikes (e.g., event tie-ins) yield margins closer to *400-600K*. - **Ideal Buy Zone**: *1.9M-2.3M GP* - **Ideal Sell Zone**: *2.6M-3M GP* This margin translates to a 15-25% return per cycle—a reasonable ROI for cosmetic flipping. --- ### Similar Items to Invest In: - **Tiered Outfits**: Look into Bride of the Sea (blue/dark variants), Wintumber Cape, or the Gilded Dragon Gear—mid-range items with similar fanbases. - **Untradeable Keepsake Targets**: Antique and other Legacy cosmetics rarely re-released. Items like *Golden Warpriest* appeal to overlapping markets. - **Seasonally Popular Sets**: Holiday-themed legacy rares (e.g., *Icicle Crown*, *Desert Pantheon scripts*). --- ### Seasonal Trends and Advice: - **Positive Trends**: - **Post-Summer (Sept-Nov)**: RS3’s player base historically re-stabilizes in the fall, as holiday spending fuels GP circulation. - **Update Tailwinds**: Major reworks or skill expansions often destabilize the market short-term, which is great for value-speculative flipping. - **Negative Trends**: - **Duplication/Exploit Periods** (e.g., pre-Easter or pre-summer *Treasure Hunter events*). Historically linked with prices dropping by 30-50% quickly. Invest selectively in months lacking major updates or exploit shocks. Track redistribution patterns fueled by passive GP accumulation from updates like the *Sanctum of Rebirth*.