### **Deep Analysis of the Mining and Smithing Flyer** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The *Mining and Smithing Flyer* is a promotional tradeable item released alongside RuneScape 3's *Mining and Smithing rework* event on **August 12, 2024**. Its primary purpose is to act as a collectible associated with the rework, often awarded as a Treasure Hunter promotional item or via in-game events highlighting mining and smithing training methods. The item's rarity stems from its limited issuance during the updates tied specifically to the rework, with no confirmed intention of future re-releases. Though not ultra-rare compared to discontinued items, its one-time event nature classifies it as semi-limited. #### **Historical Price Insights** - **Steady Initial Value (2023-2024)**: The item debuted with modest but stable pricing around **20M GP** between March 2023 and early 2024. It gained value incrementally, fueled by speculative flipping and moderate demand for its collector's appeal. - **Volatility During Dupe Exploits**: Key spikes and dips coincide with broader market instability: - **January 2023 (700B+/hour Scrimshaw Dupe)**: The game's economy was flooded with GP, creating a "gold-rich" market where collectibles like the flyer saw surges to **50M GP** temporarily. - **May 2024 (Max Cash Update Exploit)**: Another massive GP inflation further fueled speculative spikes, temporarily pushing prices upward before settling after the patch. - **Post-Release Boom (July-August 2024)**: Following the Mining & Smithing rework on **August 12, 2024**, the Flyer experienced a price explosion, highlighting redistribution and vanity collection demand. Prices peaked at a staggering **60M GP (July 2024)** before steadily declining. - **Recent Declines (December 2024)**: The item sharply depreciated to around **18M GP**, likely due to: 1. **Over-speculation burnout**: After initial hype, demand waned among players who already acquired their flyers. 2. **Liquidation for Black Partyhat Goals**: The Black Partyhat promo in **December 2023** continues to siphon GP and investment from mid-tier collectibles. 3. **General Economy Stabilization**: Fewer recent updates inflated GP circulation compared to earlier exploits. --- #### **Price Prediction (January to June 2025)** Using historical trends and forward-looking analysis: 1. **Short-term Stability (January-March 2025):** The flyer will likely hold its **18M-20M GP** value due to reduced event-driven volatility in early 2025. With no confirmed re-release, scarcity may sustain baseline demand. 2. **Potential Late Q2 Rebound (April-June 2025):** - April events tied to seasonal promotions (e.g., Easter) could create opportunistic flipping demand. - If Jagex announces promotional reworks, such as additional upgrades to Mining and Smithing content, collectors and speculators could push the flyer toward the **25M-30M GP** range temporarily. However, without a clear external catalyst, exponential growth (e.g., reaching 50M GP again) seems unlikely due to post-duplication market stinginess and lower general player liquidity across mid-tier wealth brackets. --- #### **Typical Flipping Margins** The Mining and Smithing Flyer is best suited to flippers during periods of market stagnation when margins widen due to low trade volumes: 1. **Optimal Margin Range:** Typically **1M-3M GP** per trade during low volatility. Buy prices hover around **17M GP**, with sell offers placed at **18M-20M GP** depending on movement. 2. Larger spikes (e.g., during event announcements) create brief windows for **5M+ GP flips**, but only if you position buy orders early during major promotional hype cycles. --- #### **Similar Items to Watch and Invest In** 1. **Historical Comparables:** - *Treasure Hunter Promotional Discontinued Items* (e.g., Beach Party collectibles). - *Mining and Smithing Rework Rewards*: Items like *Unorthodox Mining Lamps* similarly tie into rework promotions and exhibit mid-tier speculative trends. 2. **Upcoming Seasonal Items:** - Holiday-specific items with semi-limited trade periods (e.g., Easter or Winter events) often follow a similar hype-buy-then-stabilize trend. 3. **Scarcity-Driven Investments:** - Look toward niche treasure items such as *Oddments Tokens* or recent **cosmetic overrides (e.g., Necromancy-themed cosmetics)** with limited window availability. These trade heavily during pre-patch promos but stabilize into attractive flipping margins post-event. --- #### **Seasonal Effects on Flyer Price** 1. **Positive Price Seasons:** - *Late June to August*: Historically aligns with summer content releases and Treasure Hunter reruns. - *Late November to December*: Holiday seasonal hype and larger GP influxes often spill over into mid-tier collectible markets. - *April-May*: Spring promotional events, including Easter-long Treasure Hunter improvements, drive incremental speculative demand. 2. **Negative Price Seasons:** - **January to March:** General downtime following year-end holiday flushes lead to cash conservation among players, dampening speculative interest. - **Post-duplication stabilization phases:** GP sinks in major upcoming updates could limit speculative budgets. --- ### **Key Takeaways** - The Mining and Smithing Flyer's price trajectory is tied heavily to rare event-driven factors like collector demand, general mid-tier wealth inflations, Treasure Hunter promotions, and limited availability. - For 2025, prices should remain range-bound around **18M-25M GP** unless similar Mining/Smithing content resurgence occurs. - Flipping opportunities are narrow but consistent, with risk dependent heavily on timing exposure around seasonal volatility.