### Overview of the Off-hand Shadow Glaive The **Off-hand Shadow Glaive** is a level 85 off-hand ranged weapon requiring level 85 Ranged to wield. Its direct counterpart is the **main-hand Shadow Glaive**, completing a set that specializes in accurate, high-damage hits due to a fast attack speed and synergy with ranged abilities. The glaive is unique in being degradable and repairable via a combination of **seeds of war** or GP, making it costlier to maintain than most tier equivalents. Its inclusion in a mid-tier PvM setup has solidified its position as a stepping stone between tier 80 weapons, like the Royal Crossbow and Ascension crossbows. The glaive was initially released on **September 27, 2021**, coinciding with the Croesus front of the **Elder God Wars Dungeon**, where it drops exclusively from Croesus bosses' loot chests. Its release created significant initial hype, but the combination of its degradable nature and player preference for two-handed setups (e.g., Eldritch bows) has kept prices relatively in check historically. With Croesus being a skilling boss, supply trends are tied directly to how many players actively engage with skilling PvM content. When skilling is incentivized (via updates or events), shadow glaive availability increases, leading to price reductions. --- ### Rarity and Historical Price Trends - **Overall Rarity**: The glaive is of moderate rarity, heavily dependent on player activity at Croesus. Given that Croesus is a skill-heavy encounter rather than a damage-based raid, its loot rates scale inversely with participants as more players trivialize contribution requirements. - **2023-2024 Price Trends**: The glaive's price fluctuates sharply, influenced by economic shocks (like dupes) and item balancing updates. Key highlights: 1. From **March 2023 to July 2023**, prices fell from highs of 24.5M GP to as low as 11M GP. The **Necromancy release (August 2023)** caused significant reorientations of combat gear preferences, reducing demand. 2. Prices rebounded slightly into 2024, peaking again at 18.8M GP by September 2024. The **Sanctum of Rebirth boss (July 2024)** likely increased PvM activity, creating a spike in interest. --- ### Historical Price Influencers 1. **Dupes and Gold Injection**: Extreme spikes in GP supply (January 2021 rollback, January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe, and May 2024 Max Cash exploit) reduce the intrinsic value of GP, causing items to become more expensive temporarily. - Example: March 2023 saw a spike to **24.5M GP** due to oversupply of GP. 2. **Combat & Skill Updates**: - **August 2023 Necromancy Update** de-prioritized ranged setups, hurting demand. - **April 2024 Combat Update** focused on general PvM improvements, adding secondary demand for mid-range weapon tiers as easier content accessibility drew in mid-level users. - **September 2024 Mining Update** likely encouraged Croesus activity, boosting glaive supply and reducing prices. 3. **Jagex Monetization Changes**: - Bond price hikes (May 2022, June 2024) and Treasure Hunter GP injections (April 2024) created inflationary pressures on items, softening volatility but creating a general upward price trend long-term. - The **Hero Pass backlash (September 2024)** reduced active playtime for key demographics, causing post-spike stabilization. --- ### Price Prediction and Analysis (Late 2024 to Q1 2025) **Current Price (September 2024):** 18.8M GP **Predicted Price Range (December 2024):** 12M - 14M GP Key insights driving this prediction: 1. **End-of-year downswing**: Historically, Q4 sees decreased PvM activity as holiday events (like Christmas) dominate gameplay, which discourages intense bossing like Croesus and increases skilling event participation. 2. **Gold Reduction Mechanisms**: Expected efforts by Jagex to curb the impact of duplications (like GIM bank bugs) will translate into temporary item price dips. By late Q1 2025, prices might recover toward **16M - 18M GP** based on renewed player focus on combat following holiday events. --- ### Flipping Opportunities With recent price data: - Average margin during **volatile periods (e.g., Necromancy Patch)**: **1M - 2M GP per unit**. - During **stable periods**, the margin narrows to just **500k GP** unless you're bulk-buying during downward supply moves (~12M ranges). Based on current trends, mid-November marks a peak flipping opportunity as active participation in holiday-focused content may devalue PvM-related setups. --- ### Alternate Items to Shadow Glaives 1. **Main-hand Shadow Glaive**: Always paired with the off-hand variant, but follows slightly different trends due to its unique supply scales. 2. **Sirenic Armour**: Shares the same demographic of mid-tier Ranged PvMers. Prices may spike alongside glaives if Ranged gear receives direct buffs or PvM updates are announced. 3. **Ascension Crossbows**: Closest non-degradable alternative, appealing to budget-conscious players. --- ### Seasonal Price Influences & Optimized Strategies 1. **Q1/Q3:** Positive price growth as combat updates and PvM-focused content encourage Croesus raids; strong flipping margins. 2. **Q2:** Typically neutral or slightly negative as skilling updates indirectly affect bossing profits. 3. **Q4:** Decline in value during November - December due to holiday disruptions and inflationary pressures from holiday events. For speculative flips, invest in key updates that are PvM-focused or skill-integrative, such as **combat tier rebalances**, or plan exits when skilling tools/updates incentivize Croesus runs.