### **Shadow Glaive Overview** The Shadow Glaive is a level 85 degradable ranged glaive, offering competitive stats for mid-to-high-level players. It was initially released as a drop from **Twin Furies**, a boss within the **God Wars Dungeon 2 (GWD2)**, on **July 20, 2016**. It is tradeable but degrades to dust after 60,000 combat charges. Its specularity as a ranged weapon comparable to the Ascension crossbow set has made it popular for players who seek effectiveness without the cost of non-degradable tier-90+ weapons. In terms of rarity, the Shadow Glaive is considered a moderately rare drop from Twin Furies, fluctuating in demand based on the meta for ranged combat and subsequent rebalancing updates. It has historically been subject to supply/demand volatility, with major dips caused by sudden increases in supply (e.g., duped gold shifts to item buying) or lost demand to power creep from higher-tier equipment releases like **Elder God Wars Dungeon (EGWD)** drops. --- ### **Historical Trends and Price Analysis** From the provided history, the price of the Shadow Glaive has been erratic. Pricing trends suggest the item is sensitive to economic disruptions, gameplay changes, and alternative ranged weapon offerings. Here’s a breakdown of major historical movements in the provided data: 1. **2023-Q1 to Q2:** - Price peaked around **28.8M** in March 2023. It then fell consistently to **15.9M by July**. This aligns with the **Necromancy combat changes and increased max combat level (Aug 2023)**, likely causing attention shifts to melee/magic meta weapons. 2. **2023-Q3:** - The price experienced more downward pressure due to the **Hero Pass backlash (9/2023)** and **Carlyle Group sale (9/2023)**, coinciding with player uncertainty around the game's future trajectory. 3. **2024-Q1 to Q2:** - The price dropped sharply in Q1 2024. The **Max Cash exploit (5/2024)** notably depressed item prices across the board, flooding the market with gold that devalued mid-level items like the Shadow Glaive. Similarly, Treasure Hunter GP additions diluted buying power. 4. **2024-Q3 to Q4 (Recent Movement):** - Price appeared to stabilize after a crash, jumping from **6.8M in March** to **18.8M by September** with the Sanctum of Rebirth release (July) encouraging combat meta changes. A sudden drop back to ~6.5M in December suggests oversupply, since demand was likely shifted to newer, non-degradable tier 90+ equipment with better performance. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next 6 Months)** Given the historical trends and current game conditions, the Shadow Glaive’s price is likely to follow this trajectory: 1. **Short-Term (1–3 Months):** - Recent market resets to **~6.5M** indicate oversupply from players offloading unused items post-GIM dupe and Black Partyhat releases. Expect the price to stay between **5.5M–7.5M** as market volatility persists. 2. **Mid-Term (3–6 Months):** - The upcoming **Necromancy balancing patch (expected around March 2025)** and seasonal Treasure Hunter promotions could draw some attention back to ranged combat, slightly boosting demand. Price may recover to the **7M–9M range**. However, competition from new ranged weapons may prevent a significant rally. **Key Risks:** New degradable or non-degradable ranged weapons in the next major content update could marginalize the item further. Changes to drop mechanics (e.g., mode rebalancing for GWD2) could also increase supply and depress value further. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Due to its current low price point, the Shadow Glaive is a prime candidate for flipping in high-volume markets. Historically: - **Low end:** Margins can average **250k–500k** in low-demand cycles (buying at ~6M and selling at ~6.5M). - **High end:** Margins during demand spikes (e.g., major boss releases or combat updates) have reached **1M–2M** per glaive in just a few days. Flippers should focus on periods of inactivity mid-week when prices dip due to low player engagement. Avoid buying during Treasure Hunter gold influxes, as market flooding temporarily suppresses values. --- ### **Comparable Items** To diversify flipping or investment, consider these comparable items: 1. **Ascension Crossbows (Main-hand/Off-hand):** - Closely tied to the ranged combat meta but significantly higher-tier. Frequently traded and ideal for stable, lower-risk margins during balance patches. 2. **Decimation (Level 87 Bow):** - Tradeable bow with slightly similar audience. Prices similarly fluctuate with ranged meta updates, but higher-tier usage cap gives it a larger player pool. 3. **Blightbound Crossbows:** - Tier 92 ranged choice that often steals demand from weapons like the Shadow Glaive during Christmas promos and seasonal price rushes. 4. **Dragon Rider Lance (Melee Focus):** - While melee, it’s a "bridge" weapon between mid-tier players and high-tier weapons like the Mazcab spear and offers consistent flipping margins. --- ### **Economic Seasonal Trends** 1. **Positive Influences:** - Patch release months (e.g., **March, August**). Combat rebalances tend to shift interest back to forgotten tier-85 items like the Shadow Glaive, driving temporary demand. - Holiday-exclusive Treasure Hunter promotions (e.g., **Christmas/New Year**) often inject new cash players seeking versatile, cost-effective weapons. 2. **Negative Influences:** - Mid-year updates (e.g., **April-May**) when market liquidity suffers from excessive gold surges like dupes or rewards changes. Duped cash tends to inflate premiums for high-tier items, diverting attention away from mid-tier gear. - Post-event sell-offs (e.g., following major promotions) create supply spikes, suppressing prices. --- ### **Final Strategy** - Accumulate Shadow Glaives slowly under **6M** during mid-week lulls (Tuesdays/Wednesdays). - Target sell periods timed around combat rebalance announcements or PvE-focused patches. - Hedge your flipping with Ascension Crossbows or other range-focused weapons in adjacent economies for diversification.