### **Vengeful Kiteshield: Summary, Release, and Rarity Analysis** The Vengeful Kiteshield is a level 90 tank off-hand shield made from materials obtained in the **Nex: Angel of Death** boss encounter. Released in early **2017**, this shield is one of three variants of defensive off-hands (Vengeful, Vindictive, and Malevolent), tailored for use with power armor in boss-focused combat situations. Its defining feature, aside from impressive defensive stats, is its position as a symbol of prestige, requiring adept Nex: AoD farming skills and consistent teamwork to obtain its components. In terms of rarity, the shield itself is technically untradable but can be obtained by crafting (Reinforced Dragonhide x50 + unique boss materials). Its materials' market rarity depends on the dynamics of high-end PvM. Historical factors such as PvM economy shifts, Nex's boss popularity, and trade volume on rare loot directly influence its price trajectory. --- ### **Price Movement Analysis and Historical Trends** From your provided data, here is the summarized timeline with observations: 1. **May 2023 – 14.4M GP:** The shield stabilizes in mid-range pricing, reflecting steady demand likely tied to Nex popularity and pre-Necromancy activity. 2. **July 2023 – 11–12M GP:** Price falls sharply post-Red Portal bug and max combat level increase (08/07/2023). Influence: gold sinks from hacks, lower confidence in high-tier PvM due to gear price redistributions. 3. **August–September 2023 – ~26M GP:** A sudden spike during Necromancy’s release shows correlation with combat reworks. Many players likely chased gear for adaptability-rich content, driving demand. 4. **February 2024 – 14.5–18M GP:** A volatility window occurs as multiple Treasure Hunter and dupe-related exploits destabilized supply. Smart investors likely liquidated holdings post-spike. 5. **July 2024 – 12–14M GP:** Decline correlates with several gold-injection updates (April 10 and May 15), leading to overfluctuation of the GP economy and diminishing consistent PvM demand for best-in-slot shields. The **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 22)** likely impacted tank-focused gear temporarily with boss diversity. --- ### **Price Prediction Over the Next Few Months (2024 Q3-Q4)** #### Positive Influences: - **Relevance to Tanking Meta:** Expected "long-life" in Necromancy utility for bosses requiring defensive setups, as combat balancing updates often revive niche item demand. - **Dupe Recovery Slowdown:** With Jagex patching duping exploits, GP flooding should stabilize slightly, allowing luxury items like this shield to find equilibrium again. - **Limited Supply of AoD Drops:** Nex is not a top farmed boss, leading to long-term item scarcity as PvMers shift focus to new bosses like **Sanctum’s fight encounters.** #### Negative Influences: - **New Releases:** Future endgame content (potential **Zaros-boss rework**) could phase out the need for older shields, putting a cap on long-term appreciation. - **Economy Strain:** Ongoing GP inflation (from Bonds and Treasure Hunter injections) risks downward pressure on mid-range PvM items, particularly those sub-50M in worth. **Prediction:** By Q4 2024, expect the Vengeful Kiteshield to oscillate between **14M and 18M GP**, dependent on PvM meta shifts and gold injection policies. Long-term stagnation is likely unless core combat update design favors direct usage of tank shields over power-focused hybrids. --- ### **Flipping Margins and Merchanting Strategy** Historical spreads show volatility spikes between **1M–4M GP margins** during high-demand periods. Specifically: - **Flipping Windows:** Necromancy-driven PvM thrift events (as in August 2023) show 80-120% markup opportunities for players who bought pre-update dips. - **Risk Adjustment:** Materials used to craft the shield (notably Nex loot) often move faster than completed gear. Stock materials like scraps of superior hides during off-seasons to minimize holding risks. - **Recommended Strategy:** Buy during **low PvM activity months** (e.g., after Easter events or post-major boss releases). Sell during **summer boss hype cycles** (July–September). Typical flipping efforts should aim for securing the shield at dips (12–14M GP) and selling high during PvM prioritization points (18–20M GP). --- ### **Suggested Alternative Investments** If Vengeful Kiteshields lie outside your risk tolerance or are inaccessible due to material scarcity, consider parallel items with correlated value traits: 1. **Malevolent Kiteshields:** Useful for identical purposes but offering slight variation in demand intensity. 2. **Cryptbloom Fungal Body/Legs:** Acts as PvM tank-preferred gear, rising in value mid–post meta shifts. 3. **Praesul Codex Drops (Greater Ricochet/Grimoire Pages):** Always holds synergy with AoD loot rotation cycles, great for medium-term flips. 4. **Spirit Shields (Elysian/Arcane):** Niche high-stakes items that compete for tank setups after PvP removal. --- ### **Seasonal Insight Patterns for Price Trends** - **Positive Trends:** High summer engagement (July–September), PvM season preparation for major bosses, and Necromancy combat refreshers. - **Negative Trends:** Easter and December. Dupes, accident-based updates, or economy leaks around Easter (credits floods) repeatedly harm shield prices. December's "holiday slump" and rising Bond sales also dilute price ceilings due to cash GP reallocations. Tracking update patches and PvM announcements can consistently guide high-risk players toward optimal gear turnover moments.