### Reaper Ornament Kit Analysis: The **Reaper Ornament Kit** is a cosmetic upgrade for the Reaper Crew gears (notably the Reaper Scythe, one of the most sought-after cosmetic weapon overrides) used to enhance its aesthetics. It's typically obtained through Treasure Hunter promotions, which target high-demand rare items. The kit was initially released **on July 11, 2023**, during Treasure Hunter events. #### Rarity and Demand: This ornament kit is considered **uncommon** compared to ultra-rares like dyes but still relatively scarce because of its association with premium weapon cosmetics. Its value fluctuates significantly due to Treasure Hunter rotations, general player interest in weapon cosmetics, and broader economic shifts in the game. Demand tends to spike after meaningful updates that increase relevancy in high-tier PvM content, as fashion-scape becomes more relevant for prestige players. ### Historical Price Insights and Trends: The dataset suggests substantial volatility: - **Prices:** - **7/11/2023:** *5,700,000 GP:* The item launched at this peak due to initial hype. - **2/12/2024:** *501,464 GP:* The sharp decrease corresponds with a Treasure Hunter promotion or influx caused by an update event like reward rebalancing or dumping from casual players. - **3/30/2024:** *6,600,000 GP:* Rebounded due to demand triggers—likely tied to the combat update on 03/04/2024, which renewed interest in PvM and prestige gear. Price instability for Treasure Hunter items often follows a predictable cycle influenced by three factors: 1. **Supply spikes** during promotion events, often sinking prices temporarily. 2. **Content relevancy**, rising demand when new bosses and PvM mechanics are released (e.g., Croesus or Max combat level updates in 2023). 3. **Long-term deflationary rebound** after item sinks occur, and fewer kits enter circulation. #### Past Correlations with Key Events: - The 2023 **Necromancy skill update** indirectly correlated with interest in the Reaper crew items, as players participating in combat-based training often want cosmetic upgrades on their PvM setups. - The **03/04/2024 combat update** likely revived interest in weapon-focused overrides, causing the sizable March rebound in prices. - Treasure Hunter reward shifts (e.g., **01/29/2023 Scrimshaw dupe floods GP**) and economic shocks often cause item market disruptions, like the February 2024 dip. ### Price Prediction: Considering RuneScape's item economy trends and upcoming updates: - **Short-term (2-3 months):** - Anticipate *stability* followed by slight rises. The recent **06/25/2024 Bond price changes** will reallocate GP spending into items, sustaining higher demand for cosmetics like the Reaper kit. - Expected price range: **6M–9M GP.** - **Medium-term (6+ months):** - Content release cycles like new bosses (**Sanctum of Rebirth, 07/22/2024**) or updates like the Mining/Smithing rework (**08/12/2024**) might spike demand for general combat-related cosmetics. - If no promotions oversaturate the market, prices could trend toward **10M+ GP** by late 2024. ### Typical Flipping Margins: Flipping cosmetics like this kit tends to yield **5-15% margins**, but peaks can vary based on timing around Treasure Hunter reintroductions. For example, after February's price slumps, opportunistic flips during the rebound phase in March likely netted **20-25% returns**. The ideal strategy here is to buy just after major Treasure Hunter promo events when the influx collapses prices and then sell into subsequent recovery. ### Alternative Items to Watch: If you're considering diversification: 1. **Weapon-focused overrides** – Choose kits like Ice Dye or Shadow Dye, which follow a recurring pattern of sustained high demand. 2. **Battle-ready overrides** – Items like Tier-92 Malevolent weapon upgrades, which align better with elite bossing endeavors, often rise alongside combat updates. 3. **Seasonal rares (e.g., Christmas items)** – Black Santa Hats and Party Hat variants tend to rise between September and December, with dips immediately post-launch. ### Seasonal Patterns: - **Positive outcomes (price rises):** - *July-September*: High economic activity around game updates and summer promotions. - *November-December*: Holiday hype and GP spending spikes create demand for cosmetic or rare items. - **Negative outcomes (value dips):** - *Early March*: Treasure Hunter promos add supply. Historical dips like February 2024's price collapse demonstrate this dynamic. - *January-August*, during economic exploits (e.g., dupes like in 01/2023, 08/2023), which cause GP floods and price-sinking. ### Summary: The **Reaper Ornament Kit** demonstrates classic Treasure Hunter item volatility. Its recent recovery suggests a potential upward trajectory, fueled by PvM-related updates and stable GP sinks. While prices may peak in late 2024 above **9-10M GP**, cyclic drops make it an ideal flip item for attentive traders during promos. Diversifying into broader PvM-focused overrides or seasonal rares can complement this strategy, but timing is key—buy during GP floods and sell post-content hype.