### Deep Analysis of the Bottom of Seasons #### **Summary** The Bottom of Seasons is a cosmetic leg slot piece and part of the Seasons outfit set, introduced during a past Treasure Hunter promotion. It holds value primarily as a rare collectible with niche demand among cosmetics enthusiasts and investors. Released in early 2021, this item was sought after given its limited availability and aesthetic appeal. Its price trends have mirrored broader economic shifts in RuneScape, particularly due to gold introduction events, changes in cosmetics demand, and market-wide wealth redistribution. --- #### **Release Date** The Bottom of Seasons entered the game as part of a Treasure Hunter event on **January 18, 2021**. --- #### **Rarity** The rarity is strong due to deliberate **limited availability** and lack of re-releases, but its value is below legacy-tier cosmetics (e.g., discontinued rares like partyhats). Unlike items reliant solely on in-game utility, the Bottom of Seasons retains long-term collector interest, though only moderately compared to ultrarare cosmetics like Shadow Drake or Rainbow Amulet particles. --- ### Historical Price Analysis & Key Events The price history of the Bottom of Seasons demonstrates sharp fluctuations correlating with macroeconomic shifts in RuneScape. Here are the key observations: 1. **Initial Peak (January to May 2021)** - Released during Treasure Hunter on January 18, 2021, the price initially skyrocketed to **250M** (January) due to limited supply and novelty. - A predictable "post-release crash" followed as more players acquired it, stabilizing around **150M-125M** by May 2021. **Correlated Events**: - *Rollback Dupe (January 2021)*: Trillions of excess GP flooded the economy, causing hyperinflation. Wealthier players invested in newly released cosmetics, spiking demand. Post-dupe recovery and player redistributions partially stabilized the market. --- 2. **Mid-2022 Decline** - From **135M in January** to a low of **99.9M by October 2022**, the item suffered a moderate yet steady decline. **Correlated Events**: - *Duel Arena Removal (January 2022)*: Led to a widespread withdrawal of illicit wealth sources through staking accounts. Cosmetics demand temporarily dipped. - *Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022)*: New economies shifted player focus away from trading older cosmetics, reducing liquidity. --- 3. **Volatility During 2023** - Post-January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe, Bottom of Seasons fell below **30M** for the first time, trading between **28.5M-34M.** - Speculative investors likely offloaded stock due to perceived instability and long-term diminishing interest relative to high-value tradables (e.g., partyhats). **Correlated Events**: - *Scrimshaw Dupe (January 2023):* Massive gold influx caused devaluation of mid-tier collectibles. - *Hero Pass Backlash (September 2023):* Decreased player trust in Jagex financial safeguards likely scared cosmetic investors. --- 4. **Recent Recovery (2024)** - By **September 2024**, the Bottom of Seasons surged to **60M**, indicating renewed confidence, possibly tied to wealth redistribution and speculative buying following gold sinks in mid-2024. **Correlated Events**: - *Max Cash Exploit (May 2024):* Massive GP introduction required cosmetic investors to hedge against gold devaluation. - *Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)*: Brought fresh economic activity, and better-informed high-level players shifted investments back into items like cosmetics. --- ### Price Prediction (Q4 2024–Mid 2025) Historical trends suggest the Bottom of Seasons will follow RuneScape's cosmetic investment cycles, typically driven by: 1. **Gold Influx Events** (boost) Upcoming events (e.g., *Christmas promos or New Year's treasure hunts*) likely spark speculative demand, raising prices toward **75M-90M** by early 2025. 2. **Seasonal Declines**: Post-February speculative sell-offs (following holiday spending) may cause prices to dip back to **50M-65M** by spring 2025. **Risk Factors**: - If re-released in any form (e.g., updated Treasure Hunter promo), the item’s price would likely crash below **15M-20M**, mimicking patterns from prior cosmetic rereleases (e.g., Hearts of Ice). --- ### Typical Flipping Margins - **Normal Market Conditions (2024 Average)**: - Buy Price: **55M** - Sell Price: **60M-62M** - Margin: ~**5M-7M (10%) per trade**, excluding Grand Exchange tax. - **High Volatility Events** (fresh promos/exploits): - Buy lows when panic-selling drops price to **35M-40M.** - Resell during recovery **50M-60M+**, yielding 30-60% ROI. Advanced investors should utilize quick buy orders during mid-level dupe events or update-related interruptions (e.g., recent max cash exploits disrupted immediate pricing protocols). --- ### Similar Items to Diversify Portfolio To hedge risks when holding the Bottom of Seasons: 1. **Shadow Gem and Celestial Halo** (low-mid cosmetics; irregular spikes post-promo). 2. **Dark/Light Animica Bars** (relatively stable tradables benefiting from Mining rework, Q3-Q4 2024). 3. **Elite Skilling Outfit Fragments** (high demand mechanics; relevant to rework-related promos). Avoid holdings in cosmetics frequently re-released (e.g., *Necronium cosmetic overrides*). --- ### Seasonal Trends 1. **Positive Seasons for Price**: - **Winter (December-February)**: Holiday promos/inflation lead to speculative high-end buying. - **August (high updates)**: Content releases = broader wealth inflow; collectors grow active mid-summer. 2. **Negative Seasons**: - **March-May**: Players offload investment items pre-Treasure Hunter. Prices typically dip. - **Late September**: Similar drops as summer activity wanes. Prepare accordingly by purchasing during March-April dips or September corrections while targeting sales in December-January. This cyclical pricing behavior mirrors the economy's broader trends since *dupe recoveries* boost cosmetics investments.