### **Reaper Necklace: An In-Depth Analysis** #### **Summary** The Reaper Necklace, released on *May 26, 2014* with the Kalphite King update, is a high-tier combat jewelry item crafted using 80 Death Note fragments at level 91 Crafting. It grants +44 Strength bonus and provides the iconic passive effect of restoring 25-50 life points for every successful hit delivered. This lifesteal effect has cemented its value as a core item for sustained PvM encounters, especially in high-intensity boss fights. Historically, its rarity is mid-tier compared to other amulet-slot items since it's craftable (with effort) rather than exclusively obtained via RNG mechanics. Still, its reliance on Death Note fragments, which fluctuate in availability, indirectly contributes to price variations tied to meta shifts and Combat updates. --- #### **Price Analysis and Forecast** The price fluctuations of the Reaper Necklace can be correlated closely with gameplay updates, economy changes, and content meta. Notable events from the provided timeline that impacted the item’s valuation include: - **Necromancy Expansion (Aug 2023):** With combat level expansion and Necromancy becoming the most popular skill update in years, overall demand for lifesteal items surged. The necklace hit a short-lived high around **85M GP** in September 2023. - **Hero Pass Backlash (Sept 2023):** This update saw discontent leading to the temporary devaluation of in-game items as players rage-quit or liquidated assets. However, lifesteal items retained some stability due to their niche utility. - **Combat Update (March 2024):** Enhanced damage-per-second mechanics reinvigorated demand for healing effects, briefly spiking the Reaper Necklace’s price to **~65M GP** post-update. - **Treasure Hunter GP Injection (April 2024) & Max Cash Exploit (May 2024):** Both events contributed to massive inflation. Items tied to PvM saw some price stabilization across mid-May, but the rise of alternative jewelry (e.g., Crypt Bloom amulet) limited the necklace’s recovery. #### **Recent Trends** The most recent data (June 2024) shows a price of **~62M GP**, suggesting relative stabilization after months of volatility. Notably: 1. Demand for lifesteal remains consistent among solo PvMers. 2. Supply disruptions due to bot sweeps and dwindling Death Note fragment farming activities help maintain the price floor. 3. Competition from other necklaces (e.g., Essence of Finality) keeps the ceiling in check. --- #### **Price Prediction** Given historical trends and Jagex's tendency to release PvM content updates in Q4 (often driving higher demand for PvM-related items), the Reaper Necklace is poised to increase slightly in value over the next few months, barring any catastrophic nerfs or unexpected dupe waves. **Short-Term Forecast:** - **July 2024:** 64M-66M GP (slight pre-content speculation). - **August 2024:** 68M-72M GP (due to Sanctum of Rebirth content). **Risk Factors to Monitor:** 1. Overpowered necklace additions (e.g., Sanctum dropping superior amulets). 2. Unforeseen economic events like dupes negatively impacting high-value gear. --- #### **Flipping Margins** Over the last year’s price history, the Reaper Necklace’s spread has averaged **1.3%-2.8% daily**, with higher spreads during volatile periods (e.g., post-Max Cash exploit). Current flipping viability suggests: - **Buy Range:** ~60M - **Sell Range:** ~63M-64M - **Typical Margin:** 1.5M-2.5M GP per flip (assuming high-volume periods like Q3's PvM events). Flipping advice: Focus on lowball buy offers during market cooldowns (e.g., post-update fatigue) and offload to PvMers before major combat events. --- #### **Similar Items to Invest In** To diversify, consider purchasing the following PvM-related items with similar risk profiles: - **Essence of Finality Amulet:** Highly complementary but trades much higher (~160M-240M). It’s meta-proof but spiky due to its crafting cost and versatility. - **Amulet of Souls:** Similar healing-passive PvM utility. Tracks Reaper Necklace due to competitive use cases. - **Crypt Bloom Armor:** Synergizes with lifesteal builds and spikes with every PvM/combat nerf. --- #### **Seasonal Impacts on Prices** RuneScape’s market cycles are highly seasonal, affected by update pacing and player engagement trends: - **Positive (Q3/Q4):** Historically, PvM items like the Reaper Necklace appreciate post-summer updates, especially with high-turnout content like new dungeons or skill reworks. - **Negative (Q1/Q2):** Following major gold injections (Treasure Hunter events, dupes), prices tend to slump briefly due to inflationary pressure. Key periods to profit: Pre-major updates and December holiday events; avoid selling during fake inflation-induced spikes (e.g., post-dupe recovery). --- Keep an eye on Sanctum of Rebirth-related announcements and Treasure Hunter revisions—the Reaper Necklace could see a popularity bump if the next PvM encounters favor sustained self-healing strategies.