### **Spider Leg Analysis** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The *Spider Leg* is a high-value tradeable component of the Araxxor boss drop table in RuneScape 3, used to create the powerful *Noxious Weapons*—Noxious Scythe, Staff, and Longbow—when combined with their respective hilts. Araxxor was introduced on **August 11, 2014**, making the Spider Leg a staple in high-level PvM ever since. It is constructed by combining *Spider Leg Top, Middle, and Bottom*, which drop depending on Araxxor's rotation and path configuration. Its rarity comes from the fragmented nature of obtaining its parts and the skilled combat necessary to defeat Araxxor, alongside the competition and limited availability of specific paths. The Spider Leg's value is primarily driven by its connection to Noxious Weapons, among the most versatile and demand-heavy items in RuneScape due to their longstanding utility in PvM and their place in the "middle-tier affordability" for wealthy players. --- ### **Historical Price Analysis and Trends** From the provided data, the Spider Leg's price has shown considerable volatility, with prominent dips and spikes correlating to systemic changes in the RuneScape economy or major updates. Some key observations from the timeline: 1. **Early Stagnation (~2023)**: Prices averaged around **270-300M** with stable trading due to consistent demand for Noxious Weapons in PvM. Spikes to ~340M were observed during market influx events (e.g., the January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe led to short-term inflation). 2. **2024 Decline**: After holding a relatively stable value early in 2024, the Spider Leg experienced significant price drops leading into **November 2024** (from 284M in June to ~159M by October). Major culprits: - **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024)**: Introduction of trillions of GP caused rapid inflation, with players cashing out valuable items like the Spider Leg. - **Mining and Smithing Rework (August 2024)**: The shift in resources and profitability redirected some demand away from Noxious crafting into new profitable gear. - **GIM Duplication Bug (November 2024)**: Another influx of wealth dampened Spider Leg rarity, devaluing it to sub-170M territory. 3. **Late-2024 Recovery into 2025**: Recent rises in December 2024 (300M+ peak) are likely due to the **holiday season's traditional demand** spike for PvM-related items and increased liquidity across the economy. Notably, the release of the Black Partyhat and other high-ticket items spurred GP hoarding, indirectly boosting demand for bossing items like Spider Legs. --- ### **Price Prediction for 2025** Based on historical trends and the game's economic patterns: 1. **Short-Term (~3 months)**: Expect a **steady climb** into Q1 2025, back to the **320-350M range**, as the holiday hype sustains demand and inflationary pressure persists due to more casual returns post-New Year events. - **Factors**: Continued scarcity of GP sinks, seasonal PvM popularity, and lingering effects of the Winter crash recovery. 2. **Medium-Term (~6 months)**: A likely **price decline to 250-280M** by April-May 2025 due to post-season cooldown and potential new PvM content shifting focus away from pre-established bosses like Araxxor. 3. **Long-Term (~9-12 months)**: Significant risk remains from another economic upheaval (duplication exploits, new bossing metas), but the Spider Leg will **drift between 270-330M** barring major disruptions. --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Spider Leg’s appeal for flipping lies in its liquidity at high prices: - **Typical Margins**: Buy offers can exceed 10-20M below mid-range prices in spikes (e.g., ~280M sell occurs for 260M buy during mid-month lulls). Margins expand in volatile periods. - **Example**: A recent flip window from **251M (12/17/24)** to **318M (12/23/24)** suggests lucrative 60-70M windfalls during volatile turns. Pro tip for flipping: Always monitor boss rotations—if a less popular or harder path (e.g., Araxxor Path 2) is active, leg supplies tighten, creating better margins. --- ### **Similar Investments** For those looking to hedge Spider Leg investments, consider these items: 1. **Noxious Hilts**: The paired component of Noxious Weapons, hilts share similar market behavior but often lag Spider Legs in response (delayed spike/dip reactions). Great for diversification. 2. **Ascension Crossbow Pieces (Ascension Keystones)**: With Ascension Bolts seeing sustained demand, crossbow crafting remains reliable. These also suffer from limited supply, so spikes follow PvM-centric updates. 3. **Elder Overload Salves**: Consumables that indirectly tie to PvM trends. Updates incentivizing boss-specific mechanics often spur demand for salves, making them complementary to PvM item markets. --- ### **Seasons and Market Behavior** - **Positive Seasons (Rise)**: - **Winter (Nov-Jan)**: High player activity (holidays) and GP surplus boost luxury/PvM item demand. - **Summer Updates (May-August)**: Big seasonal content drops (which often involve PvM mechanics) create spikes. - **Negative Seasons (Fall-Off)**: - **Spring (March-April)**: Post-holiday liquidity dries up; speculative dumps occur. - **Post-Large Updates**: Once bosses or updates settle (~2 months post-release), drops like Spider Legs see reduced demand. For 2025, careful monitoring of any mid-year PvM-related releases will be critical to timing Spider Leg sales and reinvestments. --- ### **Conclusion** The Spider Leg remains a high-value yet volatile commodity deeply tied to RuneScape’s economy and PvM meta. Its late-2024 rebound emphasizes player-driven demand cycles and the impact of external disruptions. Flipping strategies are highly viable, as are adjacent investments in Noxious Hilts and Ascension Keystones. Keep an eye on economic exploits and Treasure Hunter changes as ongoing threats to price stability.