### **Orb of the Cywir Elders: Summary, Rarity, and Price Behavior** The **Orb of the Cywir Elders** is a high-level off-hand magic weapon dropped exclusively by *Helwyr* in the Heart of Gielinor (God Wars Dungeon 2). Released on **March 29, 2016**, alongside the God Wars Dungeon 2 content update, the orb’s power comes from its ability to synergize with other high-tier magic weapons such as the Seren godbow or wand setups, making it highly sought-after by PvM combatants who prioritize optimized DPS in group bosses and high-end Slayer encounters. Its rarity is dictated by the drop mechanics in Helwyr's loot table, combined with fluctuating demand cycles based on meta shifts, combat updates, and economy-wide gold influx events. It retains enduring value due to its status as a *God Wars 2* drop and its niche role in advanced hybrid setups. However, it has also suffered from price volatility due to two major trends: temporary alternatives outperforming it, and gold price explosions inflating the market. --- ### **Recent Price Data Analysis** Here’s a deeper breakdown of its price movements, tying into historical events: - Prices spiked during *Necromancy*'s **August 2023 release** (reaching **31M GP in April 2023**) due to heightened interest in alternative weapon setups for the evolving meta. However, **Hero Pass backlash in September 2023** saw prices oscillate downward (*22M GP by September*) due to player pessimism, yet the weapon remained resilient relative to the broader market crash caused by disenfranchised/unsubscribing players. - The most *extreme dip* came post **May 15, 2024**, when the **Max Cash update exploit** flooded the economy with trillions, sending its price as low as **12.7M GP in April-June 2024**. This trend reversed after the **Sanctum of Rebirth** release in mid-July 2024, as demand for high-tier offensive setups rebounded, and its rising price (eventually **22M GP by late December 2024**) reflects recovered player confidence paired with decreased availability. - The **August 2024 Mining/Smithing rework** indirectly impacted its price, as resources, including alchables and ores, were repriced. The orb gained resilience here compared to other mid-tier PvM weapons due to its status as a *raw kill drop* with a fixed loot frequency in Helwyr kills. --- ### **Price Prediction and Speculation** **Next Few Months (Q1 2025):** - With steadily improving GP liquidity post-duplication exploits and returning player faith, expect modest growth over the next quarter. Its baseline demand in PvM content will remain stable due to its meta utility, pushing prices to **24-27M GP** by late March or April 2025. - **Key upside driver:** If Jagex announces an update affecting God Wars Dungeon drops (e.g., improved pet drop rates or updated mechanics), this could create temporary buying frenzies, driving the orb well above **30M GP** again. - **Key downside driver:** A significant PvM update introducing better magic off-hands or Necromantic alternatives (beyond the previously anticipated **combat update**) would depress its value through obsolescence, bringing it back to **18M GP or lower**. --- ### **Historical Price Dip/Spike Causes** 1. **Spikes:** - Combat meta changes enhancing the need for alternative setups (+Necromancy 2023). - Economic recovery after catastrophic money exploits (2023-2024 trend). 2. **Dips:** - Gold flooding events (e.g., **Max Cash exploit**) eroding item value. - Weapon creep (future weapons threatening its utility tier). --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Orb of the Cywir Elders is a *mid-volume, mid-fluctuation item*, making it ideal for speculative flipping on daily or weekly scales for consistent margins: - **Typical Buy/Sell Margins**: ~1.5M–3M GP per flip during stable periods, higher following game/event uncertainty. - **Flipping Strategy**: Focus on high buy volume during weekly PvM release hype or stability zones (e.g., post-event Treasure Hunter promotions) and aim for reselling during evening hours or event cooldown phases. --- ### **Complementary Items to Invest In** To diversify your flipping and investment strategy: 1. **Eldritch Crossbow Components** (*Armadyl Crossbow* or *Eldritch components*): - Known for sharp spikes during Necromancy/PvM meta resets and boss releases. 2. **Wyvern Crossbow**: - PvM niche value increases during Dragon Slayer-inspired updates like Sanctum of Rebirth. 3. **Reprisal Codex**: - Released through Telos, values fluctuate sharply in relation to orb movements since they occupy overlapping buyer demographics. --- ### **Seasonal Effects on Prices** 1. **Positive Price Periods**: - **July-August**: PvM content like Necromancy or combat enhancements keep demand high. - **Holiday Periods (December-January)**: Returning veteran players re-entering the player economy boost high-tier items like the orb. - **Post-springtime inflation recovery**: After GP flooding (e.g., dupes or exploits resolved), items regain real value. 2. **Negative Price Periods**: - **April or Post-Dupe Updates**: GP overflows lead to depressed item prices (April 2024 demonstrated this trend clearly). - **Mid-year (May-June)**: Particularly after updates like Mining/Smithing, which reorient GP toward skilling or other activities. --- ### **Expert Final Recommendation** - **Orb of the Cywir Elders** is a volatile but fundamentally sound mid-to-high-tier PvM investment. Hold through economic rebounds but exit positions preemptively if Jagex teases weapon overhauls or major PvM reworks. - Diversify flips with *components of other God Wars Dungeon 2 rare drops*, focusing primarily on magic or hybrid-oriented items to synergize with emerging meta shifts.