### **Inverted Thieving Skillcape (120): Analysis** #### **Summary** The Inverted Thieving Skillcape (120) is a cosmetic override introduced during RuneScape 3's *Fresh Start Worlds* event (September 22, 2022). Players could earn inverted skillcapes by reaching level 99 or 120 in their respective skills within the Fresh Start Worlds servers, with the cape serving as an exclusive and visually distinct variant of the traditional 120 Thieving Cape. Its sleek black-and-gold design offers high aesthetic value compared to its standard counterpart, making it highly sought-after by collectors, fashion scapers, and rares investors. #### **Rarity** The item's rarity is directly tied to its exclusivity. Achieving 120 Thieving in Fresh Start Worlds was both time-gated and effort-intensive. Coupled with the temporary nature of Fresh Start Worlds (which concluded in early 2023), no new supply was added after the event, ensuring the cape remains a rare item. Unlike discontinued items like partyhats or rares from Treasure Hunter promotions, no alternative or duplicate method of obtaining this cape exists. --- ### **Price Prediction** The price trajectory of the Inverted Thieving Skillcape is volatile but trends upward over the long term due to its limited supply. Its value is influenced by influxes of GP, Jagex updates, and general market shifts caused by major game events. #### **Historical Trend Correlations:** 1. **Duplication Glitches (Examples: Rollback Dupe, Scrimshaw Dupe, Max Cash Exploits)** Historically, GP floods drive up the value of rare or exclusive items as players seek safer asset stores during inflationary periods. Dupes in early 2021 caused widespread inflation, leading to higher demand for collectibles. Similar trends occurred in 2023-2024 during the Scrimshaw dupe and max cash exploit. 2. **Treasure Hunter and GP Giveaways (Examples: 1B GP Treasure Hunter Reward)** When Jagex introduces large GP sinks or supply giveaways, rare item prices spike briefly as players leverage their newfound wealth to purchase aspirational items. 3. **Endgame Content (Examples: Necromancy, Combat Updates, Boss Releases)** The release of Necromancy in August 2023 led to shifts in player priorities, temporarily reducing activity in the fashion scaping market. However, endgame players often stabilize and buy high-value items as goals shift from progression to aesthetics. 4. **Player Confidence (Examples: Hacks, Hero Pass Controversy, Carlyle Sale)** Events like mass account hacks or backlash against updates (e.g., Hero Pass release) cause temporary dips in rare items as traders panic sell to liquidate assets. These scenarios often present unique entry points for savvy investors. #### **Future Trends (Next Few Months):** - **Short-Term (1-2 months):** Following the *Mining and Smithing Rework* (August 12, 2024), a temporary lull could occur as players focus on gathering new resources or participating in the reworked content. Expect prices to dip ever so slightly. - **Medium-Term (3-6 months):** Post-GIM dupes (November 2024), collectables like the Inverted Thieving Skillcape (120) are expected to rise in price. Historical patterns suggest that parties duping billions leads many players to reinvest in rare discontinued items for long-term gains. - **Prediction:** Current estimations suggest price increases of **15-30%** over the next six months, with spikes tied to GP influx from Treasure Hunter or other Christmas promotions (if implemented). --- ### **Flipping Margins** The Inverted Thieving Skillcape (120) has moderately predictable price swings due to limited volume traded daily on the Grand Exchange. Margins for flipping often fall within a **2-6% range per trade**, depending on market activity and liquidity. #### **Tips for Identifying Trends:** - Monitor major game updates or highly publicized treasure hunter promotions, as these create opportunities for both buyouts and resales. - Watch for GP source disruptions (e.g., new hacks or technical exploits). Collectibles often experience sudden demand during inflationary bursts. - Flip during weekend peaks when player activity surges, typically leading to greater liquidity. --- ### **Similar Items to Buy** Given the rarity of inverted skillcapes, diversifying into other exclusive cosmetic or discontinued items can hedge risks while maximizing returns. Recommended items include: 1. **Other Inverted Skillcapes:** - Prioritize low-supply skills like Divination, Slayer, or Farming, which have the highest difficulty in Fresh Start earnings. 2. **Treasure Hunter Rares & Promotions:** - Look for past promotions like *Black Santa Hat* or *Milkshake Shield*. These items consistently appreciate after their promotional windows close. 3. **Golden Partyhat (2021):** - A recent limited-edition rarity introduced via holiday incentives. Rarity and increased GP inflation stabilize these as an alternative investment. 4. **Masterwork Spear of Annihilation (Necromancy-Linked Gear):** - Not a fashion scape item, but prices often rise as combat reworks emphasize top-tier equipment. --- ### **Seasonal Recommendations** #### **Positive Outcomes:** - **Late November - Early January:** Holiday events (e.g., Christmas) often coincide with higher player wealth due to promotions like Bonds, Treasure Hunter GP rewards, and gifting of rare items. - **Post-Summer (August-September):** Following summer major updates, many players pivot from progression to fashion scaping, bolstering demand for high-end collectibles. #### **Negative Outcomes:** - **Major Skill or PvM Updates:** When massive interactive content (e.g., Necromancy or new skilling reworks) launches, players divert focus from cosmetics. Expect rare item prices to stagnate or dip slightly during these windows. --- ### **Conclusion** The Inverted Thieving Skillcape (120) occupies a niche position alongside cosmetic collectibles but benefits from strong rarity fundamentals, GP inflation dependencies, and consistent demand from both investors and fashion scapers. As Jagex continues to reintroduce wealth into the economy via dupes and Treasure Hunter rewards, the cape’s value will likely trend upward. Smart traders can exploit minor market volatility, especially during holiday events or post-update lulls.