### **Deep Analysis of the Snowman Building Rest Token** #### **1. Summary** The **Snowman Building Rest Token** is a discontinued consumable item in RuneScape 3. It allows players to perform the Snowman Rest animation and was originally released during the 2014 Christmas seasonal event. Its availability is tied to Treasure Hunter promotions, meaning it typically reappears in limited batches during holiday-themed events or flash promotions. As a discontinued item with unique nostalgia appeal, its rarity fluctuates heavily depending on Treasure Hunter re-releases and overarching economic shifts in RuneScape's market. The token has oscillated between being a strong investment and a volatile dud due to reintroductions. --- #### **2. Historical Rarity and Price Trends** - **Initial Price Behavior**: Upon release, these tokens were nearly valueless and freely obtainable via events, leading to their discard by many players. Over time, their novelty and lack of availability in subsequent years caused a spike in demand. - **Price Spikes**: - **July–September 2021**: Spiked massively (peaked at **70M on August 7, 2021**) due to high speculative investments ahead of Christmas and lack of Treasure Hunter re-introductions. Release of new bosses like **Croesus** (September 27, 2021)—popularizing downtime in PvM lobbies—may have indirectly escalated demand for cosmetic tokens. - **January 2022 (Duel Arena Removal)**: Hyperinflation caused by gold influx through dupe incidents undermined rare items. Tokens experienced a sharp devaluation as GP entered circulation but stabilized after removal of the Duel Arena and containment of the dupe. - **Sharp Declines**: - **May 2022**: Dropped to **1 GP** after Treasure Hunter reintroduced Snowman Rest Tokens, flooding the economy. Treasure Hunter re-releases often obliterate speculative prices for such niche tokens. - **Post-August 2023 (Necromancy)**: Margins fell again as attention shifted to Necromancy updates, overshadowing minor item markets. --- #### **3. Price Prediction for 2024** Given the token’s history, certain trends provide insight into its expected behavior: - **Current Price (as of November 2023)**: **5,000 GP**. Its abysmally low value indicates market saturation from prior Treasure Hunter events and low engagement compared to new, meta-driven gameplay content (e.g., Necromancy builds, Hero Pass). - **Short-Term (1–3 Months)**: Likely to remain at **5k or less** unless bolstered artificially by a buyout, often conducted by merchant clans. Treasure Hunter's **December 2023 holiday promo** could either lightly revive interest or further harm its price by adding new holiday-themed cosmetics as competitors. - **Medium-Term (4–6 Months)**: Potential modest rebound (**50k–100k** range) if Jagex avoids a re-release between April–July. However, the **April dupes** flaring with Gummy rewards could dissuade long-term confidence in niche investments. - **Long-Term (6+ Months)**: By Q4 2024, potential to rise to **200k+** due to **Sanctum of Rebirth** (July 2024) shifting focus to high-level PvM, making rare, passive downtime items moderately appealing again. --- #### **4. Flipping Margins** - **Current Market (November 2023)**: - The token has negligible flipping margins due to low speculative interest. Clans may craft artificial buyouts, but with a 5k baseline, these are short-lived. If a coordinated effort pushes it to **10k per token**, flipping potential would still be minor, resulting in profits of **3–4% per trade**. - **Historical Peak Flipping**: Best profits occurred in **August 2021** when prices ranged from **18M to 70M**, offering margins as high as **20–40%** during speculative bubble growth. --- #### **5. Alternative Tokens/Items for Similar Investment** To diversify holdings, consider these similarly-themed discontinued items: - **Carolling Rest Token** and **Turkey Rest Token**: Cyclical price shifts around December make these viable alternatives during the Christmas promo season. - **Juggling Rest Token**: Rarity persists due to sporadic re-releases; typically follows a summer price recovery before dropping in autumn. - **Plum Tree Rest Token**: Typically follows growth patterns matching spring seasonal events. --- #### **6. Seasonal Cycles and Timing for Buy/Sell** - **Positive Price Cycles**: - **Mid-Summer (July–August)**: Interest rises as players anticipate holiday demand for resting animations. - **Post-update corrections**: Tokens like Snowman Rest benefit from events that slow the game economy (e.g., NPC downtime during bosses like **Croesus** or raids). - **Negative Price Cycles**: - **Holiday Seasons (December)**: Annual Treasure Hunter promotions often dilute value through excess supply. - **Economic Chaos**: Dupe events and GP inflation/crashes (e.g., Max Cash exploits) drastically hurt niche items that rely on novelty rather than functional utility. --- ### **Conclusion** The **Snowman Building Rest Token** is currently in economic limbo at a low **5k GP** due to over-saturation, Treasure Hunter re-releases, and market apathy. While flipping margins remain poor in the current climate, it could see moderate medium-term growth if left untouched in 2024. Savvy investors should proceed cautiously, diversifying into similarly themed tokens like the **Carolling Rest Token** while monitoring events that might introduce new uses or create artificial scarcity.