### Summary & Context of the Inverted Woodcutting Skillcape (120) The **Inverted Woodcutting Skillcape (120)** is part of a limited-time promotional cosmetic reward introduced during *Fresh Start Worlds (FSW)*, specifically in **September 2022**. This inverted cape is awarded to players who reached 120 Woodcutting in FSW during the event and then transferred their achievements to standard servers. Its inverted coloration distinguishes it from the standard skillcape, making it a status symbol targeted at collectors, high-value traders, and completionists. **Rarity**: The rarity comes from two sources: the limited availability of FSW and the demanding requirement of achieving 120 Woodcutting, which is time-intensive and not easily accessible to casual players. As FSW is no longer active and no future plans have been confirmed for reintroducing the capes, its rarity is effectively capped, making it a "finite supply" item. However, market liquidity remains low, as collectors tend to hoard these capes rather than actively trade them. --- ### Price Analysis and Trends Looking at the historical price data provided: 1. Late 2022 saw volatile pricing, ranging from **4.2B GP** to highs of **7B GP**, reflecting speculative trading upon its release and hoarding behavior. 2. The **price drop to 3.5B GP by late December 2022** signals market stabilization but is likely linked to liquidity barriers and surrounding events—particularly the FSW aftermath and diminishing demand after the hype phase. #### Key Correlated Events That Likely Affected Pricing: - **09/22/2022 (Fresh Start Worlds Introduced)**: This event drove hype for inverted skillcape cosmetics, resulting in **initial high demand**, speculative investment, and inflated pricing at release. - **12/01/2023 (Black Partyhat Released)**: The introduction of another rare cosmetic item could have siphoned demand from the inverted capes market as high-tier collectors shifted their attention. - **05/15/2024 (Max Cash Update Exploited)**: This likely increased game-wide GP inflation, temporarily raising demand but also destabilizing high-value item prices. - **Bond Price Increases (05/04/2022 & 06/25/2024)**: These influenced wealth accumulation strategies, as players increasingly relied on bonds to acquire GP, leaving rare items in flux during price hikes. --- ### Price Prediction (Next Few Months) Considering historical trends and economic scenarios in RuneScape: 1. **Short-term (1-3 months)**, prices should trend higher, especially if no significant re-releases occur. Speculation and hoarding behavior by collectors tend to push prices upward due to the inherent scarcity of FSW capes. **Expected price: 5B–6B GP**. 2. **Medium-term (3-6 months)**, prices might encounter stabilization or slight upward trends, highly dependent on broader game economics. Events such as Treasure Hunter GP injections or exploits (common in Q4-Q1 historically) can depress demand for high-ticket items by devaluing GP itself. **Estimated range: 4.5B–5.5B GP**. #### Risks and Downward Pressures: - A potential **re-release or cosmetic override option** for inverted capes could destroy exclusivity, crashing its value. - Major cash influx events (dupes, GP injections) could destabilize high-value trade items in favor of lower-end transactions. - **Holiday-specific updates** (e.g., Christmas or seasonal Treasure Hunter events) may temporarily lower liquidity. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins Given its low trade volume and infrequent liquidity, flipping margins for the Inverted Woodcutting Skillcape (120) are **extremely volatile**. However: - A typical trader can expect margins of **200M–500M GP per flip**, depending on timing and matchmaking inefficiencies in the Grand Exchange/trusted trades. - Flipping requires patience—offers may sit for **days or weeks** without active matchmaking unless additional scarcity or hype develops. --- ### Comparable Items to Invest In If investing in the Inverted Woodcutting Skillcape (120), diversifying into similar rare or cosmetic items can hedge against sudden market crashes. Recommended items include: - **Black Santa Hat or Black Partyhat**: Cosmetic rarity with strong demand among collectors. - **Golden Partyhat**: Also tied to holiday limited-time events with established appreciation trends. - **Other Inverted Skillcapes**: Depending on their total obtainable quantity during FSW, capes from popular skills like Slayer or Mining are comparably rare and less subject to demand volatility. --- ### Seasonal Market Outlook Seasonality has a distinct impact on this item's value: 1. **Positive Events (Price Spikes)**: - Q3-Q4 updates during high player engagement periods (e.g., summer events, holiday/Christmas seasons). - Game-altering updates (e.g., new bosses, skilling revamps) that attract wealthy, returning players interested in completing cosmetic collections. 2. **Negative Events (Price Drops)**: - Post-update market cool-downs, especially in late Q1-Q2 when player activity drops. - GP influx via exploits, dupes, or Treasure Hunter GP buffs (such as the **1B GP Treasure Hunter reward on 04/10/2024**), which destabilize the rarity item economy. Investors should seek to time purchases during periods of **market uncertainty or GP influx** for lower entry points and sell during **holiday hype** or alongside the release of other high-value limited-edition items.