### **Item Overview: Inverted Fletching Skillcape (120)** The **Inverted Fletching Skillcape (120)** is a cosmetic override obtained through the Fletching skill during **Fresh Start Worlds (FSW)** events in RuneScape 3. Inverted skillcapes, introduced as an incentive, are designed as a prestige cosmetic to reward players achieving 99 or 120 skills in Fresh Start Worlds within a defined timeframe. The cosmetic is tradeable and popular among players who value rare, exclusive items associated with competitive achievements. **Release Date:** September 26, 2022, with the Fresh Start Worlds release. Fresh Start Worlds ended on April 5, 2023, making these items permanently unobtainable except via trading. **Rarity:** The rarity of the Inverted Fletching Skillcape (120) is high due to the relatively low number of players who hit 120 Fletching during FSW while others prioritized meta skills like Herblore and Archaeology. Items from Fresh Start Worlds, especially skillcapes, hold enduring desirability as supply is fixed and dwindles through permanent account inactivity or retention in private collections. --- ### **Price Prediction Analysis and Historical Context** **Historical Context of Price Fluctuations:** 1. **Pre-January 2023 Data:** - **Initial Spike:** The December 2022 price peak at **1.75b GP** aligns with the general post-event rarity hype. Post-FSW, the item entered free market circulation, and early speculators drove demand, anticipating limited stock. - **Dip (1.25b GP in January 2023):** Prices normalized after initial trading enthusiasm faded. January's 700b gold dupe introduced inflation, pressuring high-tier collectibles like this skillcape, as gold oversupply depreciated the GP value. 2. **Stabilization Post-Dupe:** By late Q1 2023, the combination of stabilization following the January dupe and reduced speculation brought the price to a steady **1.5b GP range** into 2023. 3. **General Trend:** Inverted skillcapes across various skills tend to maintain steady price floors due to their finite supply. Volatility is primarily tied to external events (e.g., GP inflation) rather than intrinsic shifts in demand. **2024 and Forward Predictions:** - **Short-Term (Q4 2024):** Expect persistent price appreciation toward **2.2-2.5b GP**, fueled by returning players from Q4 2023’s updates (Hero Pass changes, Red Portal drama, Black Partyhat hype). Jagex’s recent pattern of enhancing liquidity with Treasure Hunter rewards (e.g., the 1b GP injection in April 2024) may provide sufficient gold infusions to buoy prices further. - **Mid-Term (2025):** Prices could stabilize or decline slightly to **2.0b–2.3b GP**, as new monetization content (Sanctum of Rebirth, Max Cash update) might dilute item desirability relative to GP value. **Market-Specific Drivers:** - Lower supply due to collectors holding these capes. - Future skillcape re-releases (*could* temporarily lower prices but seem unlikely per Jagex exclusivity promises). - High GP injections from dupes, bugs, or Treasure Hunter prizes artificially increasing demand capacity. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** As of late 2024, daily margins for flipping the Inverted Fletching Skillcape (120) rest between **125m–160m GP**. This item enjoys steady price movement due to its consistent demand, yet sporadic availability. - **Optimal Flipping Period:** Items like this perform best during **holiday seasons or during headline updates** (e.g., skill reworks, cash injections), where heightened player activity raises demand for high-prestige items. Avoid flipping during major negative community events (e.g., Hero Pass backlash periods). - **Best Practices:** Focus on gradual price discovery in **low-volume trade hours** (e.g., late game hours or reset periods) by undercutting slightly—competition for rare capes remains sparse. --- ### **Similar Items to Add to Your Portfolio** If you're leveraging your wealth into collectibles and mid-term holds, consider diversifying by purchasing other items that mirror the rarity and desirability dynamics of the Inverted Fletching Skillcape (120): 1. **Other Inverted 120 Skillcapes:** Fletching scales along with its counterparts like Inverted Herblore or Archaeology capes, especially rare or meta-driven skills. 2. **Discontinued Rares from FSW:** - **Inverted Slayer Skillcape (120):** Slayer scales similarly for prestige hunters but is rarer due to its grind-heavy requirements, giving higher potential returns. - **FSW Halo cosmetics:** These remain sought after as secondary collectibles with strong nostalgia appeal. 3. **Legacy and Discontinued Items:** - Seek pre-Max Cash duping-period **Black Santa Hats or 3rd Age Dye**, as future cash influxes push them higher. 4. **High-End Tokens or Overrides Post-Update Hype:** - Examine **Necromancy relics, sigils, and overrides**, which surge in response to skills being favored in updates (e.g., Necromancy milestones in August 2024). --- ### **Seasonal Influence on Price Trends** **Positive Price Seasons:** - **Holiday Events (December–January):** GP surplus from Treasure Hunter and player gifting causes demand surges for valuable, tradeable items. - **Major Content Updates:** High-price items benefit during skill overhauls (e.g., Mining/Smithing) or prestige-focused updates like boss releases. **Negative Price Seasons:** - **Community Backlash Periods:** Jagex-triggered obsolescence spikes (e.g., Hero Pass backlash in September 2023) often stall demand for collectibles. - **Post-Dupe Announcements:** If Jagex patches gold influxes or deflates gold content, item values plateau or fall across the board (low GP buying power). --- By monitoring user sentiment, update calendars, and in-game economic shifts, the Inverted Fletching Skillcape (120) remains a solid collector’s item with favorable potential growth. Seek flipping opportunities during low-activity periods, and diversify into complementary items to mitigate market shocks.