### **Inverted Prayer Skillcape (120) Overview** The Inverted Prayer Skillcape (120) is a prestigious cosmetic reward introduced during the Fresh Start Worlds event in late 2022. It became accessible only to players who achieved level 120 Prayer during the limited-time Fresh Start Worlds or by transmuting it using Chroma Fragments. Its inverted color scheme, unique among skillcapes, and limited-time availability gave it an air of exclusivity. The item was vaulted after Fresh Start Worlds transitioned, ensuring its rarity in the future. #### **Release Information:** - **Event:** Fresh Start Worlds - **Introduced:** September 22, 2022 - **Availability:** Tradeable on the Grand Exchange post-event - **Discontinued as of:** January 2023 (official event closure) #### **Rarity:** While Fresh Start Worlds encouraged competition among players, its limited four-month runtime, alongside the high Prayer cost (both XP and GP-intensive), capped the total number of these capes circulating. The niche demand for prayer-related prestige and its tradeable status make it a highly sought-after item by collectors and cosmetic enthusiasts. --- ### **Price Trends and Historical Analysis** #### **Significant Price Points:** - **Initial Spike (November-December 2022):** Late Fresh Start Worlds hype saw prices soaring upwards of 7B GP (as seen on November 30, 2022 at 7.3B) due to FOMO (fear of missing out) on the discontinued cape. - **Correction Phase (December 2022 – January 2023):** The price fell sharply to ~3-3.5B GP as demand waned following the event’s close. - **Plunge After Hacks (January 2023):** Mass GP influx due to the 700B+/hour Scrimshaw dupe (January 29, 2023) and ensuing price uncertainty caused significant GP inflation, dropping the price to a low of 750M GP on January 6, 2023. - **Recovery (January-February 2023):** Following anti-dupe interventions, this cape rebounded to around 2B GP by February 2023. #### **Key Historical Correlations:** 1. **Duplication/GP Exploits:** Massive dupes in November 2021 and January 2023 heavily impacted item demand, as inflated GP devaluated items. These events caused dramatic instability for low-supply, high-value tradables like inverted capes. 2. **Treasure Hunter Economy:** Updates such as Treasure Hunter GP rewards (April 10, 2024) indirectly affect collectors’ markets by increasing liquefiable GP, thus boosting demand. 3. **New Skills/Skill Adjustments:** Updates like Necromancy (August 2023) prompt major investments into XP-cosmetic gear. A similar spike was absent for Prayer, as the skill remains dormant. --- ### **Price Prediction (Q4 2024 – Q1 2025)** Given its rarity, Prayer's consistent high-cost barrier for completionist players, and the eventual normalization of GP/rare items, prices are expected to continue moderately rising. However, several key factors come into play: - **Positive Indicators:** - **Black Partyhat Influence (December 2023):** The introduction of ultra-rare new cosmetics increases the appetite for exclusives, indirectly supporting their value. - **High GP Injection Saturation (2024):** Inflated cashflow may result in more buyers for rare cosmetics, propping up demand even further. - **Long-term Vaulting of Fresh Start Exclusives:** The value of inverted capes increases as collectibility outpaces supply loss. - **Negative Indicators:** - **Macro-Economic Stability of GP:** Unforeseen dupes, Treasure Hunter changes, or additional GP injection (e.g., the 1B GP Treasure Hunter update in April 2024) could counter-price stability near-term. #### **Predicted Price Range:** - **December 2024:** 3.5B - 4.2B GP. - **March 2025:** Stable at ~3.8B GP with upward pressure post-Easter cosmetics (approx. 5-8% short-term spike from collectors). --- ### **Flipping Margins** - **Typical Spread:** Historically, flipping margins for the Inverted Prayer Skillcape average around 3-8% during stable periods between updates. - Example: A purchase at 2.8B can often resell for 2.9-3B GP. - **Best Times to Flip:** - **Right After Gameplay Updates:** Seasonal hype (e.g., mid-November or late-March) floods merchants with short-term liquidations, offering better buy-in opportunities. - **Pre-Holiday Seasonal Lulls:** Around early December or early July, the market often sees slight sell-offs as cash is redirected toward existing event content, allowing lower bid wins. --- ### **Recommended Complementary Investments** For diversification, consider adding other similarly rare inverted capes or GP-stable collectibles with similar volatility characteristics: 1. **Inverted Skillcapes (120) from Fresh Start Worlds:** - **Top Picks:** Herblore, Crafting, and Fishing capes due to XP-cost intensiveness. 2. **Black Partyhat:** - Released December 2023, offers comparable rarity but slightly broader price fluctuations due to higher market speculation. 3. **Discontinued Treasure Trail Rewards (e.g., Ice Dye):** - With stable release limits and consistent demand over years, dyes offer excellent cross-market hedging. --- ### **Market Seasonality Analysis** The RuneScape economy is historically cyclical: #### **Positive Trends (Price Rises):** - **Q4 (October–December)** - Holiday updates (e.g., Halloween/Christmas) spike interest in prestige items. - Economic inflation leads to cosmetic wealth flex markets. - **Q2 (April–June)** - Following spring GP injections, high-value rares often see approximately 5-10% improvements as liquid GP meets collectors. #### **Negative Trends (Price Falls):** - **Q1 (January–March)** - Post-holiday cooldown, where players typically hold GP rather than splurging. - Economy destabilized by bug/exploit clean-ups. - **Q3 (July–September)** - Necromancy release in August 2023 skewed market focus toward skill gear, which could repeat in similar future skill reworks. --- ### **Final Advice** The Inverted Prayer Skillcape (120) remains an excellent mid- to long-term investment, particularly for those who understand its extreme rarity and the Prayer skill’s cost-prohibitive XP ceiling. With prices projected to surpass 4B GP by mid-2025, incorporating this cape into a well-diversified portfolio of discontinued holiday items and alternate inverted skillcapes offers strong growth opportunities with relatively manageable risk.