### **Dark Facet of Luck Summary and Key Insights** The **Dark Facet of Luck** is a rare enchantment item obtained from the **Daemonheim Archaeology Collection**, specifically from completing the "Shadow-Dweller" mystery. It is used to craft the **Luck of the Dwarves (i)** ring—an upgraded version of the Luck of the Dwarves that functions as a relic power instead of an equipped item. Released on **August 30, 2021**, this item serves as a critical and endgame upgrade highly sought after by high-level PvMers and treasure hunters. Its **rarity** is tied to the time-intensive process of obtaining Ancient Components III from the Dungeoneering skill and the special dungeon within the Stormguard Citadel digsite. Limited availability and large demand have kept it relatively rare in the market. --- ### **Price Analysis and Historical Trends** #### Price Trends and Key Drivers - **Initial Spike (October 2022-December 2022):** The Facet once peaked at **2B GP** shortly after release when demand was exceptionally high. This was influenced both by PvMers chasing efficiency and the introduction of changes to other components of the Archaeology skill. - **Decline During 2023:** Prices in 2023 fluctuated between **690M–1.6B GP**, partly due to the **700B+/hour Scrimshaw dupe in January**—which devalued gold in general—and the **Necromancy release** in August. Many stopped purchasing efficiency-focused items to pursue powercreep. - **Abrupt Drops in 2024:** By **Q2 2024**, significant dips occurred due to the **April dupes** combined with **Treasure Hunter 1B GP injections**. Likewise, the **Max Cash GP limit exploit in May** caused widespread devaluation of rare items. #### Current Status and Future Predictions As of **November 2024**, the Dark Facet has dropped as low as **589M GP**—a stark depreciation caused by broader economic instability in RuneScape. However, its demand remains fundamentally strong since the Luck of the Dwarves (i) retains incredible utility. With the economy stabilizing post-November's **GIM bank dupe**, an upward correction is highly likely. - **Short-Term Prediction (1–3 Months):** Prices should rebound to **800–900M GP** as demand stabilizes. Historical trends indicate that highly niche and utility-driven items trend upward after economic corrections. - **Long-Term Prediction (6–12 Months):** Given typical post-dupe recovery curves and increasing player wealth from new content (e.g., **Mining Rework** profits), the Facet could easily climb back to the **1B GP range**, though likely not return to its historic highs of 2022. --- ### **Flipping Margins on Dark Facet of Luck** #### Historic Profits for Merchanting: The Dark Facet generally trades in **50–120M GP margins** for savvy flippers. Its high utility means players often quickly enter buy orders for use with minimal undercuts, while merchants take advantage of periods of uncertainty or mass sell-offs (e.g., post-update price panics). - **Optimal Flip Window:** Facet prices are most active and volatile during **weekends** and just before major updates that trigger high engagement (e.g., Treasure Hunter events, boss patches). - **Typical Margin Spread:** - **Low periods:** Buy orders at ranges like 580–610M GP with sell-offs at 640–700M GP. - **High periods:** Orders between 800M–850M GP with sales exceeding 900M GP. --- ### **Alternative Items for Parallel Investment** 1. **Luck of the Dwarves Ring:** - Stable item tied to the same endgame activities. - Complements Facet flips as changes to one affect the other. Often sees **25–50M GP fluctuations**, ideal for lower-risk investments during lull periods. 2. **Hazelmere's Signet Ring:** - A competing high-tier utility ring upgraded via Alchemical Hydrix. Sharp spikes during PvM updates make it lucrative for flipping alongside the Facet. 3. **Soul/Spirit Gems (Archaeology Rares):** - These niche Archaeology-related items trend upward during mastery-timed digsite events and complement the market themes driving the Facet’s economy. 4. **Essence of Finality Amulet:** - Represents parallel high-level demand from PvMers and synergizes with Necromancy’s rise. Historically resilient to broad market dips. --- ### **Seasonality and Price Effects** #### Positive Seasons: - **Summer (High Activity Periods):** - Player engagement during vacations leads to richer flipping environments and buoyant Facet prices. - **Post-Update Markets:** - Significant **PvM boss releases** or Treasure Hunter changes create demand spikes for max-efficiency loot strategies, indirectly boosting Facet demand. #### Negative Seasons: - **Post-Dupe Economies:** - Dupes (e.g., recent April and November 2024 incidents) cause gold inflation, devaluing premium items before subsequent stabilization. - **Patch Nerfs or System Revamps:** - Combat or ring-related nerfs (e.g., weakening Luck functions) could hurt the Facet directly, though no near-term nerfs are forecasted. --- ### **Final Insights** Investors should view the **Dark Facet of Luck** as a near-guaranteed rebound asset in late 2024 given its evergreen utility and limited availability. Aligning flips with parallel investments in **Luck rings** or Necromancy niche items will diversify profits. Keep watch on Jagex's **economic recovery initiatives** post-November 2024 dupes, as these are likely to favor re-investments in staples like the Facet.