### Ultramarine Shoulder Cape Overview: The **Ultramarine Shoulder Cape** is a highly sought-after *cosmetic override* in RuneScape 3, introduced via *Treasure Hunter* promotions in late 2022. The cape’s aquatic aesthetic evokes the imagery of open seas, and its rarity made it a status symbol among collectors. Like most Treasure Hunter cosmetics, it was discontinued shortly after being introduced, leading to soaring prices among players trading it as a "discontinued rare-esque" item. This item's high fluctuations in price are tied to the wealth flow within the economy, Jagex's update cadence, and its role as a speculative investment item. Its notable supply scarcity paired with increasing demand from rare collectors has driven significant price volatility. --- ### Rarity and Availability: Since the Ultramarine Shoulder Cape was launched in a short-term Treasure Hunter promotion, its availability was gated by luck and monetary investment at the time of release, making its initial supply relatively small. Being discontinued amplified its rarity, as no new supply has entered the game since late 2022. Its value surged historically due to events that introduced excess GP into the game economy, as collectors with excess capital sought ultra-rare items. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Context: #### Historical Price Trends: - **Initial Launch (Aug–Sep 2022):** Began relatively strong due to Treasure Hunter demand, quickly touching 600-650M in the player trade market. - **Q4 2022 – Volatile Surges:** Prices peaked briefly post-Fresh Start Worlds (FSW) due to an influx of new and returning wealthy players, hitting **907M** on Nov 3, 2022. - **Early 2023 (Feb – May):** With various GP sinks (Hero Pass) and mass hacking events, the cape dropped into the **240-259M** range as investor confidence faltered. - **Q4 2023:** Renewed demand from cosmetic collectors post-Necromancy updates (Aug 2023) pushed prices, combined with the *Black Partyhat* release (Dec 2023). The cape hit **250M** in November and climbed back to **541M** by mid-November 2024. - **Current Value (Dec 2024):** Sitting at **840M**, the cape's price reflects a late-2024 speculative boom caused by capital flooding into rare markets following economic events (including GIM Bank bug dupes). --- #### Correlated Events Influencing Dips/Spikes: 1. **Gold Duplications (Aug 2022, Jan 2023, May 2024)**: Floods of excess GP from duping incidents sharply inflated discontinued items' prices. These events were followed by dips once excess GP was syphoned out, locking rarer items into the hands of collectors. 2. **Fresh Start Worlds (Sep 2022):** Created hype for cosmetics, boosting the market temporarily with new accounts and renewed demand for high-value tradables. 3. **Necromancy Update (Aug 2023):** Increased activity from returning players spurred demand for luxury items, particularly discontinued cosmetics like the Ultramarine Cape. 4. **Max Cash Update Exploit (May 2024):** This drove trillions of GP into the market, creating a speculative bubble, spiking value for rare items mid-year. --- ### Short-Term Price Prediction (2025 Projection): Given its historical trends and rarity, the Ultramarine Shoulder Cape will likely **continue to rise** in value through early 2025 due to: 1. **Scarcity**: Discontinued items with limited supply consistently rise when held by patient investors. 2. **Bull Economy State**: Current price trends reflect hoarding behavior post-November's GIM gold bug dupes, with extreme wealth concentrated in few player inventories. However, caution is advised: - Jagex frequently releases content that can either surprise-inflate or suppress the economy. Rumored **New Treasure Hunter/Event Cosmetics** in early 2025 could temporarily redirect demand away from older rares, causing a plateau. #### Projection: - **Q1 2025:** 950M–1.1B - **Q2 2025:** Stabilizing as high-value rares consolidate; range: 1.1B–1.2B - **Possible Risk:** A major GP sink or disruptive cosmetic introduction could cause mid-year stagnation around **850M.** --- ### Flipping Margins: Given its high trade-banding: - **Typical Margins:** 10-15% on average in a normal economy. Expect 80M–150M per trade profit depending on volatility. - During speculative booms, flipping margins may close to just **5–7%** due to increased competition, but rapid appreciation compensates. - **Risk:** Thin liquidity. Your ability to flip depends heavily on confidence in future price floors. --- ### Advice on Similar Items: For investors hesitant to fully commit to Ultramarine Shoulder Cape, consider diversifying into similarly priced or themed rares: 1. **Frozen Shoulder Cape (same set)**: Generally lags slightly behind Ultramarine in price due to no major aesthetic differentiation. Still, it benefits from the same long-term speculation cycles. 2. **Aurora Dye (Discontinued Treasure Hunter)**: Rare dye items tend to have similar spikes during speculative climbs due to their lightweight tradability. 3. **Ghostly and Prismatics:** While less rare, these cosmetics regularly dip and rebound, offering safer margin plays. --- ### Seasonal Advice: #### Positive Price Movements: 1. **Holiday Seasons (Dec – Jan):** Historically, returning players increase demand during Christmas breaks, especially for high-value discontinued items. 2. **Post-Update Events (Aug–Oct):** Content updates or new skills (e.g., Necromancy boost, Croesus boss) lead to wealth influx and hype, temporarily spiking demand for cosmetics. #### Risk Periods: 1. **Contrived Sinks (Spring):** Historically, Jagex applies GP sinks or sales promotions mid-year, which often level out rare prices. 2. **Treasure Hunter Booms:** If Jagex heavily promotes new cosmetics or rereleases similar items, older discontinued items can stagnate or dip significantly. **Strategy:** Buy in dips post-chaos (e.g., GP removal events) and capitalize on early-year speculative climbs. Holding investments long-term will remain the superior approach for rare items like Ultramarine Shoulder Cape.