### Summary of the Stargazer Shoulder Cape The **Stargazer Shoulder Cape** is a rare and highly coveted cosmetic override that debuted in late 2022 through Treasure Hunter promotions. As a promotional-specific item, it became quickly limited in circulation, with no indications of permanent availability, placing it firmly within the rare “discontinued promo” category. - **Release Date:** September 2022 during a Masterwork-like promotional event. - **Rarity:** Exceptionally high due to its scarcity from its gated Treasure Hunter promotion and the absence of any significant re-release. - **Aesthetic Appeal:** The item features cosmic, star-studded visuals, making it a staple cosmetic for prestige among wealthy RuneScape players. Historically, it entered the market close to **1 billion GP** but fluctuated severely based on overarching economic events, external gold influxes from bugs or dupes, and Treasure Hunter influences. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Trends #### Price Data and Key Milestones: - **Initial Surge:** Began around **750 million GP in late 2022**, but quickly climbed to over **2 billion GP** with collectors and hoarders forcing upward pressure. - **Dips and Spikes:** 1. **November 2022 – February 2023:** Dropped sharply from over **2 billion GP** to sub-1 billion GP following large-scale exploits (e.g., Scrimshaw and 700B+/hr dupes in early 2023), flooding GP into the economy and destabilizing item prices. 2. **June 2023:** Rebounded to **2 billion GP** amidst economic normalization and renewed interest post-Necromancy-related updates. 3. **2024 Spike:** Saw impressive growth mid-2024, peaking at **4 billion GP** post-Sanctum of Rebirth update (July) and the Max Cash exploit (May), which introduced trillions of GP into the economy. Recent pricing: - December 2024: Trades around **3.3 billion GP** after stabilizing, down from its **4 billion GP peak** mid-year. #### Key Driving Factors: 1. **GP influx:** Notable dupes like the **Max Cash exploit** (May 2024) and GIM bank bug (November 2024) inflated prices of rare collectibles. 2. **Limited Supply:** Discontinued promo items remain lucrative due to scarcity. 3. **High Cosmetic Demand:** Stylized cosmetics maintain demand, especially following updates that attract players focused on appearance prestige (e.g., **Easter 2024 pet duping drama** refocused attention on high-end fashionscape). 4. **Market Corrections:** Price volatility often reflects corrections following hasty surges—the June-July decline post-4 billion GP was expected. --- ### Price Prediction: 2025 and Beyond By analyzing historical data and in-game event frequency: 1. **Short Term (1-3 months):** - Expected stagnation or slight decline to **3.0-3.2 billion GP** in early 2025 due to seasonal Treasure Hunter promos and reduced liquidity post-holiday GP sinks (e.g., Black Partyhat). - Potential spikes only if Jagex releases GP-injecting events like **TH rewards** or unforeseen economic exploits. 2. **Medium Term (3-6 months):** - Likely to stabilize or see moderate growth toward **3.5-3.8 billion GP** by mid-2025 as rarity continues to play a long-term role. 3. **Long Term (2025+):** - Expect steady appreciation to **4-5 billion GP** if Jagex refrains from re-releasing it or similar cosmetics. Discontinued treasures historically trend upward due to declining circulation after hoarding/retirement. --- ### Flipping Margins and Market Strategy #### Typical Margins: - The Stargazer Shoulder Cape has margins ranging from **75M-200M GP** during most market periods due to its rarity but frequent trades among collectors. - During economic crises or post-duplications, flipping margins occasionally spike to **400M GP**, as panic selling from liquidators opens the door for exploitation. #### Flipping Recommendations: 1. **Targets:** Acquire gradually during price stagnation periods (e.g., holidays or after major TH promos). 2. **Sell Windows:** Mid-year surges, player influx during new skill/boss releases, or after economic stabilization (e.g., 2024 Sanctum of Rebirth period). --- ### Related Investment Opportunities #### Similar Items to Consider: - **Aurora Dye:** Rare Treasure Hunter dye with a cosmic theme appeals similarly to fashion-focused players. - Current pricing: **6-7 billion GP**; steadily rising as most dyes are hoarded. - **Black Partyhat (2023):** New collectible with a limited run, currently speculative but viable for mid-range investments. - Current pricing: **2.5-3 billion GP**. - **Saradomin Halo (Cosmetic):** Affordable buy-in option with moderate demand during fashionscape-centric updates. #### Diversification Strategy: - Hold **1 Stargazer Shoulder Cape** for primary long-term rarity appreciation. - Invest in multiple **Aurora Dyes** or **God-themed cosmetics** during GP deflationary periods. - Use excess liquidity to flip **high-volume dyes (Shadow, Barrows)** or **Nex armor sets** for quick profits. --- ### Seasonal Trends and Best Times to Invest #### Positive Price Outcomes: 1. **Mid-Year Surges:** Following skill/boss expansions or GP injections (historical pattern from Croesus, Necromancy, Sanctum updates). 2. **Holiday Reruns/TH Rare Events (e.g., January, July):** Major festivities result in cash flow increases, boosting collectible demand. #### Negative Price Outcomes: 1. **Post-Holiday GP Sinks (January-February):** Natural correction as players sell out for new year TH items. 2. **Treasure Hunter Rare Promotions:** New cosmetics occasionally overshadow older items temporarily. --- ### Final Recommendations The Stargazer Shoulder Cape is a valuable long-term investment for collectors and merchants alike. Its scarcity and unique design ensure persistent demand, while historical data suggests consistent recovery after economic disruptions. Current pricing (~3.3B GP) is stable but likely slightly over-inflated following 2024's dupe-fueled surge. As a centerpiece for fashionscape enthusiasts, this item is poised for long-term appreciation, particularly as RuneScape's economy normalizes after its most recent GP influx. Pairing this item investment with closely related cosmetics and dyes allows for diversified profit opportunities across fluctuating in-game economies.