### Summary of Wilderness Shoulder Cape The **Wilderness Shoulder Cape** is a mid-tier cosmetic originally released as part of the Wilderness rework from Treasure Hunter in late **2022**, aimed at celebrating the revamped Wild mechanics post-PvP removal. It is purely aesthetic, offering no stats, which gives it appeal primarily to fashion-scape enthusiasts. This item was part of a limited promotional period tied to the contentious **Fresh Start Worlds (FSW)**, which caused wild fluctuations in demand for certain cosmetics due to the event's exclusivity-based economy. While obtainable via events and promotions initially, its availability has tapered off significantly, making it increasingly rare in the open market. Historically, fashion-scape items with limited acquisition windows trend upwards in price, fitting the trajectory of the Wilderness Shoulder Cape. --- ### Current and Historical Analysis The **Wilderness Shoulder Cape** saw wild price fluctuations tied to multiple external factors, starting at highs of **85M GP at its initial launch** during FSW (August/September 2022). However, as FSW's hype dwindled and accessibility increased through Treasure Hunter promos, prices declined rapidly to **10M by October 2022**, coinciding with the removal of PvP in the Wilderness. Prices continued to fall during 2023, driven by external factors such as the **January Scrimshaw dupe**, regular Treasure Hunter cash influxes, and the game's fragmented economy, which impacted speculative investments in cosmetics. By early 2024, prices stabilized in the **2–3M range**, reflecting minimal risk and moderate trade velocity among collectors. The spike to **4.9M** in late 2024 was likely due to players speculating on fashion-scape items after the **Sanctum of Rebirth release**. --- ### Price Prediction for 2025 #### Key Predictions: - **Short-term (Nov 2024–Feb 2025):** The cape is likely to experience a slight dip to around **3.5M–4M GP**, as end-of-year holiday promos (including Treasure Hunter and Black Partyhat promotions) will flood the economy with GP and alternative collectibles. However, cosmetics generally see "value stagnation" during this period unless tied to holiday exclusives. - **Mid-term (Spring 2025):** By **March/April 2025**, the price should experience gradual appreciation to **5.5–6M GP** as speculative investors enter the market following updates that could introduce a **"no-PvP nostalgia" meta**. If significant Treasure Hunter events pump new GP into circulation post-combat balancing updates, the price could inflate even further. - **Long-term:** If no additional re-releases occur and the cape solidifies its reputation as a legacy cosmetic, expect a steady climb towards **8–10M GP by late 2025**, especially since similar limited-run items historically gain 200–300% value within ~3 years of their promotional cycles ending. --- ### Causes of Historic Price Dips/Spikes: 1. **Major Dips:** - **October 2022**: PvP removal in the Wilderness diminished the thematic demand. - **January 2023 (Scrimshaw dupe)**: Flood of gold led to collapsing prices for non-essential items. - **August 2023 (Necromancy update)**: Players divested from cosmetics to invest in the new combat skill. 2. **Spikes:** - **August–September 2022:** FSW launch created speculative hype, driving prices to unsustainable highs. - **October 2024:** Price spike to **~5M GP**, likely driven by speculative trends tied to Sanctum of Rebirth content. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins Flipping Wilderness Shoulder Capes in the current economy offers moderate but consistent profits. Typical margins range from **250k–900k per trade**, largely depending on the time of day: - **High Volume Times (Event-driven updates):** Margins shrink to ~250–400k due to high competition. - **Low Volume Times (Weekends, non-update days):** Margins expand up to 900k GP, especially if the Grand Exchange is less saturated. --- ### Related Items for Investment If investing in the Wilderness Shoulder Cape, consider these complementary fashion-scape items that historically track upward alongside limited seasonal cosmetics: 1. **Fresh Start Worlds Halo** – Its FSW exclusivity positions it as a long-term climber (~25M, potential for 40–50M). 2. **Golden Party Hat Shards** – Consistently appreciate between updates; ideal for short-term flipping. 3. **Dark Onyx Core** – Attracts fashion-scape investors and follows a similar valuation trajectory. --- ### Seasonal Trends for Cosmetic Investments - **Positive Seasons (Price Growth):** - **Spring (March–May):** Low release volume generally leads to rising prices for cosmetics as fewer items flood the market. - **Post-major combat updates:** Changes to content incentivize players to splurge on fashion status items. - **Negative Seasons (Price Decline):** - **Holiday Promos (November–December):** Treasure Hunter GP sinks boost liquidity, lowering cosmetic prices by diluting demand. - **Major Patch Cycles (July–August):** Combat-centric or gameplay-relevant updates draw GP away from collectibles. --- ### Conclusion The Wilderness Shoulder Cape remains a strong speculative cosmetic investment with mid-term appreciation potential. Expect moderate fluctuations but an overall upward trend through 2025 barring re-releases or economic disruptions. Pairing it with other fashion-scape or legacy FSW items ensures portfolio diversification and mitigates risk during Treasure Hunter-driven price dips. Long-term holders stand to benefit the most due to predictable supply constriction over time.