### **Wise Old Man T-Shirt Token Analysis**
#### **Summary & Overview**
The Wise Old Man T-Shirt Token is a cosmetic item in RuneScape 3, released during the early Treasure Hunter promotions in 2021, commemorating the game's most iconic NPC. When redeemed, it unlocks a wearable t-shirt for the player to showcase in-game. The token is considered a niche collectible among RuneScape's vast treasure hunter cosmetics, appealing to fashion-scape enthusiasts and collectors. The item itself saw limited circulation due to both its novelty wear aesthetic and underwhelming promotion compared to other more prolific Treasure Hunter rewards.
- **Release Date:** Late 2021 (early-mid Q4 during Treasure Hunter).
- **Rarity:** Relatively low availability due to overlapping promotions with higher-prized Treasure Hunter items.
- **Current Price (Nov 19, 2023):** 13,794,050 GP.
#### **Historical Trends**
##### **Initial Price Behavior (2021-2022)**
Upon release, the Wise Old Man T-Shirt Token had a fluctuating price due to initial demand among collectors. Early spikes around 7-11M GP in August 2022 correspond to its increasing recognition as a semi-exclusive item. However, due to the gold surplus from the **2021 rollback dupe** and post-**duel arena GP sinks**, prices dipped to approx. 4-6M GP later in 2022.
##### **Fresh Start Worlds (Sept 2022) & 2023 Trends**
The **Fresh Start Worlds release (09/22/2022)** brought a wave of new players and returning collectors, which briefly depressed prices further to 4.3M in September 2022 before stabilizing at 5.5-6M. However, there was renewed interest later fueled by **Necromancy's release (08/07/2023)**, with the surge pushing token prices back into the 10-12M range as collectors wanted gear to pair with Necromancy's tattered-lore thematics.
##### **Current Price Spike**
As of November 2023, the token reached a new plateau at **13.79M GP**, likely driven by events like the **Hero Pass backlash (Sept 2023)** that incentivized trade stability in collectibles over GP-sink-heavy items, paired with diminishing supply on the Grand Exchange. No re-introduction of the token in subsequent Treasure Hunter promos since its debut has also compounded on its rarity.
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#### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months)**
Using historical trends and market behaviors linked to collector cosmetics and economic flux events:
1. **Dec 2023 (~15M GP):** The upcoming release of the **Black Partyhat (12/01/2023)** may drive a market-wide increase in collector item interest, pushing the token’s value closer to **15M+** due to indirect glamour/wealth flaunt synergy.
2. **Early 2024 (~12-13M GP):** Following the **Easter duping (04/01/2024)**, inflation injections from Treasure Hunter additions may cause a minor dip or stabilization to 12-13M.
3. **Summer 2024 (~16-18M GP):** Historically, the summer months often lead to heightened activity around cosmetics because returning players from annual updates drive demand for collectible merch.
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#### **Flipping Margins**
Items like the Wise Old Man T-Shirt Token feature steady but narrow flipping opportunities compared to other Treasure Hunter items. Key flipping behavior can involve:
- **Short-term flipping margin:** ~1.5-3M GP typically, reliant on spikes post-major updates or event-hype.
- **Buy-In Price Range:** <12M GP during brief undervaluation windows from panic sellers.
- **Flip Sell Price Range:** 14-16M GP during peak weeks prior to events like boss releases (e.g., **Souls-like updates like Sanctum of Rebirth in 2024**).
Flipping is best done in the **weeks preceding highly anticipated cosmetic updates** as collectors stockpile items ahead of visual synergy demands.
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#### **Similar Items**
For diversified flipping, consider comparable cosmetics or low-supply collectibles:
1. **Retro Cosmetic Tokens:**
- *Prices:* Generally move 10-18% in tandem with the Wise Old Man T-Shirt Token.
- Ex: *Crab Hat Token*, *Tuxedo Cat Token*.
2. **Treasure Hunter Exclusives:** These items benefit from scarcity-driven value:
- *Examples:* Armadylean Halo Token, Frostwalker Outfit Pieces.
3. **Golden Event Items:**
- Role-centric rewards like *Golden Partyhat Token* or *Golden Cape Slot Token* (though pricier, they maintain robust market cycles).
4. **Seasonal Promotional Items:**
- *Recurring examples:* Easter rewards, Halloween Mystery Surprises.
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#### **Seasonal Market Insights:**
1. **Positive Price Trends:**
- **July-August (Major Updates):** Following updates like combat overhauls or skill releases (Necromancy, Mining/Smithing Rework), demand for fashion-based items rises as players explore styling their characters.
- **Pre-Winter Events (Nov-Dec):** Driven by glamour combinatorial needs with newly released event rares (e.g., Black Partyhat or Holiday Rare Drops).
2. **Negative Price Trends:**
- **April-May:** Duping or GP-exploit periods (historically prevalent here) erode market confidence in cosmetics like this token.
- **Treasury-Sink Updates:** Following GP-market inflation remedies like **Bond increases** (happened in **06/2024**), players typically prioritize liquid cash over long-term collector investments.
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#### **Conclusion**
The Wise Old Man T-Shirt Token reflects a niche investment within RuneScape 3’s collector market. Strategic flips, particularly ahead of holiday seasons and major game updates, will likely yield sustainable profits. Alongside investing in similar cosmetics, the token is a worthy mid-tier speculative item for collectors or resellers in 2024’s highly dynamic post-Necromancy economy.
Ely Intelligence Analysis