### **Plague Teleport Override Token Analysis** #### **Overview and Rarity** - **Release Date:** Initially added on June 22, 2022, as part of a Treasure Hunter event. It is a cosmetic teleport override token themed after the Plague Doctor aesthetic, a design popular among fashion-scape enthusiasts. - **Rarity:** Extremely rare. It was obtainable during a specific Treasure Hunter promotion, contributing to its exclusivity. As these promotions typically last a week or less, capped accessibility makes it a collectible with strong long-term demand. - **Historical Factors:** Prices spiked immediately after release due to rarity hype but saw sharp volatility influenced by economic exploits and subsequent gold inflation. Active manipulation by flippers and speculators has also contributed to irregular pricing. --- ### **Price Analysis and Historical Trends** The Plague Teleport Override Token has experienced inconsistent pricing trends due to external RuneScape economic events. Examining the dataset: 1. **Initial Release Period (June 2022):** - **Price Spike:** Originally sold at approximately 100M GP during launch week due to FOMO (fear of missing out) and promotional scarcity. - **First Crash:** Sharp drop following player liquidity issues caused by lingering economic consequences from the Duel Arena removal earlier that year. Demand normalized as soon as Treasure Hunter events focused attention elsewhere, dropping prices to ~30M by July 2022. 2. **Late 2022 Volatility:** - Prices fell to 14-15M GP during periods of stagnation, worsened by Fresh Start Worlds (Sept. 2022), distracting a portion of the player base. - A minor rally occurred around late December 2022, correlating with general playerbase recovery after the PvP removal updates. Holiday season speculation stabilized price around 17-19M GP. 3. **2023 Fluctuations:** - **January 2023 Scrimshaw Dupe Crash:** The 700B GP injection caused an artificial correction to ~17-18M despite scope for higher speculative demand. - Surge to 69.9M GP (March 2023): Temporary spikes likely involved manipulation by wealthier players post-recovery from duping. Necromancy updates (August 2023) pushed cosmetics-based demand but had limited lasting impact. 4. **2024 Factors:** - Re-appearance of economic instability with cash exploits (April 2024) caused further devaluation; April prices hovered ~16-26M, reflecting hesitation among investors. - Rising cost of bonds (June 2024) brought increased interest, paralleling other rare cosmetics. --- ### **Insights into Future Price Predictions** - **3-Month Prediction:** Expected fluctuation between **25M-35M GP.** - **↑ Price Drivers:** - Stabilization in the RuneScape market as Jagex addresses exploit repercussions. - Sanctum of Rebirth’s association with necromantic themes could renew interest in Gothic-styled cosmetics, benefiting Plague Teleport. - Increased player wealth due to bond GP value increases. - Diminishing supply as more tokens are consumed. - **↓ Price Risks:** - Another unforeseen duping event could flood the game’s economy with excess GP, diluting the relative value of rare items. - Potential reintroduction of the Plague Teleport Override Token in a future Treasure Hunter event—a scenario historically responsible for crushing rare cosmetics pricing. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins** Current flipping opportunities exist in the **2M-5M GP range,** depending on market timing. Due to its moderately low trade volume, careful observation of Grand Exchange activity is necessary. - **Recommended Strategy:** Buy during mid-week slumps when player attention shifts to other events. Sell at weekend peaks or after updates rekindle cosmetic interest (e.g., Sanctum of Rebirth or new Treasure Hunter 'Gothic' promos). - **Short-Term Margins:** ~10%-20% profit flipping (15-18M GP acquisitions for resales at 20-22M GP). - **Mid-Term Strategy:** Speculate long-term on price appreciation by stockpiling if prices fall below 20M GP. --- ### **Recommended Items for Bundled Investment** - **Similar Items:** - **Plague Doctor Outfit Pieces:** Complements the Plague Token while being collectible in their own right. - **Necromancy-Themed Cosmetics:** Items tied to the Necromancy skill (e.g., Death’s Scythe or Skeletal Walk Override) have spiked post-August 2023 and will synergize aesthetically with Plague Teleport Token, ensuring parallel demand. - **Dark Magic Teleport Override Token:** Considered a minor competitor but also a viable hedge due to similar niche appeal. - **Diversified Portfolio:** - Combine investments in neon-styled overrides (Electric Walk tokens, Teleport of Power) for broader player appeal during modernized Treasure Hunter events. - Invest in portable summoning ‘pet’ cosmetics—they tend to appreciate faster during bustling PvM updates. --- ### **Seasonal Price Dynamics** - **Positive Price Seasons:** 1. **Post-Summer/Early Winter (Sept-Dec):** Enhanced player activity around updates like new bosses, Christmas specials, or Halloween-themed cultural promotions. 2. **Anniversary and Bond Sales Season (May-July):** Players liquidate GP during promotions. Higher cash volume contributes to rising demand for prestige items. - **Negative Price Periods:** 1. **Post-Duping or Economic Exploits (April/Nov):** Anytime excess GP floods into the market, the price suffers relative to other tradable investments such as gear or PvM essentials. 2. **Post-Reintroduction Scenarios:** If Jagex adds Plague Teleport Override Tokens back into Treasure Hunter promotions, prices could collapse to 10-12M GP. --- ### **Final Advice** This is an excellent speculative investment if you focus on long-term appreciation (8+ months). However, be cautious of over-investment due to re-release risks. Diversify into complementary overrides and prioritize times of moderate scarcity for ideal purchase opportunities.