### Christmas Scythe: Deep Analysis
**Summary and Rarity:**
The Christmas Scythe is a highly sought-after holiday-themed rare released as a promotional item during the Christmas event of **2014**. As a cosmetic item, it features the iconic scythe design but with festive, icy-blue aesthetic details that appeal to collectors. Like most holiday rares, its availability was limited to the event, after which it was completely discontinued. Its rarity is bolstered by being untradeable during its release and only entering circulation as future updates and mechanics (e.g., rare token re-releases) allowed it to become tradeable, setting its trajectory as a major player in the "prestige rare" market.
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### Historical Trends and Price Analysis:
The Christmas Scythe's price data over the years shows significant volatility driven by external economic shocks, gold influx events, and major game updates. Here’s the breakdown:
- **2021-2022 (Early Performance):**
Released during the Christmas holiday period of 2021, the item initially saw a high base value around **3.0B+ GP**. The quick runup to the **4.5B GP peak in September 2021** coincided with gold oversaturation from the **2021 dupe exploits**, which inflated all rare prices earlier that year. However, prices dropped rapidly after the Croesus boss release (9/27/2021) due to the introduction of new gold sinks through PvM gear.
- **2022 Stability Phase:**
From early to mid-2022, most rares stabilized following the **removal of Duel Arena (1/4/2022)** and **Fresh Start Worlds (9/22/2022)** providing alternate gameplay incentives. This kept the Scythe floating between **~2.2B–3.0B GP**, depending on seasonal demand.
- **2023 Turbulence:**
2023 was harsh for item stability due to the **700B+/hour Scrimshaw dupe (1/29/2023)**, **Hero Pass backlash (9/2023)**, and increased hacking incidents. These events shadowed the **Necromancy release (8/2023)**, which initially spiked market activity, but the demand narrowly favored Necromancy-enhancing resources over cosmetics. The Scythe suffered temporary dips as discretionary spending shifted into utility trading.
- **2024 Recent Trends:**
By mid-2024, the Christmas Scythe surged to **~3.3B GP by September**, partially driven by **Sanctum of Rebirth (7/2024)** and the **Mining/Smithing rework (8/2024)** stimulating gold farming. However, its prior dip to **1.7B (5/2024)** highlights the destructive impact of the **Max Cash dupe (5/15/2024)** and Treasure Hunter GP-pumps (4/2024). Currently sitting at **~2.9B GP (Dec 2024)**, the Scythe's recovery reflects its intrinsic appeal as a long-term, status-oriented investment among collectors.
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### Price Prediction (Next Few Months):
Based on historical volatility, major game updates, and player-driven supply/demand cycles:
1. **December 2024 to January 2025:**
Expect mild increases during the holiday season due to renewed interest in festive items, but don't anticipate a major spike since Jagex hasn't recently promoted rare re-releases. Price range: **3.1B–3.3B GP**.
2. **Q1 2025:**
Prices may temporarily dip depending on the January-February gameplay focus. If new PvM arsenals or economy-wide sinking mechanics are introduced, discretionary spending on rares could decrease. Price range: **2.8B–3.0B GP**.
3. **Spring 2025:**
If spring seasonal events or Easter introduces new rewardables akin to the **Gummy pet debacle (4/2024)**, speculative dumping may arise. However, without further re-releases of legacy rares, the Scythe’s demand can ensure a stable floor.
Mid-term Price Floor: **2.5B GP.**
Potential Spike Ceiling: **3.5B GP if rare integrations (e.g., prestige events) are announced.**
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### Flipping Margins:
Typical flipping margins on the Christmas Scythe range between **100M–300M GP per trade** depending on:
- **Daily volatility:** This is often driven by player panic-selling during rapid PvM/gear-focused updates.
- **Sessional trends:** Late December and late March often see higher demand and easier markups.
- **Grand Exchange activity:** Low liquidity during off-season months (e.g., April-June) presents opportunities for savvy buyers to undercut lowball listings.
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### Comparative Items to Invest In:
For those interested in diversifying rare investments, here are suggestions:
1. **Black Santa Hat:**
Similar appeal to the Christmas Scythe but targets more competitive collectors due to its traditional rare standing. Performance shows better long-term resilience from gold influxes.
2. **Snowman Ring:**
Another holiday rare cosmetic appealing to niche traders. It suffers less from massive market shocks due to limited liquidity.
3. **Partyhat Set (E.G. Purple):**
As a cornerstone of the prestige rare market, investing in lower-tier Partyhats allows scaling ROI alongside flagship items like the Scythe.
4. **Black Partyhat (Limited Release - 12/2023):**
Recent release makes this item speculative, but early adopters flipping on speculative upticks will find great synergy with Christmas Scythe trading.
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### Seasonal Effects on Prices:
1. **Positive Effects (Q4/Q1):**
- **Holiday seasons (Nov.–Jan.):** Festive holiday demand raises both intrinsic value and trade activity. Items like Scythe naturally rise as part of thematic buys.
2. **Negative Effects (Q2/Q3):**
- Post-event economic shocks (Bond price hikes, GP influx exploits): Historically, May-June faces mass selloffs, particularly exacerbated by Treasure Hunter abuse and PvM-heavy releases aligning with gold farming opportunities.
For upcoming months, leverage seasonal demand spikes and focus on accumulating underpriced stock during PvM-centric updates that pull liquidity out of the cosmetic/rare market. Hold long-term with confidence in the Scythe’s scarcity-driven floor.
Ely Intelligence Analysis