### Oil of Enchantment: Summary and Analysis **Summary** The Oil of Enchantment is a mid-to-high tier utility consumable in RuneScape 3. It is mainly used as a secondary ingredient in summoning special items and high-level pocket-slot items. Its utility primarily revolves around crafting augmentable equipment and consumables, making it particularly sought after by players engaged in skilling or higher-tier item production. The item was released alongside the **Mining and Smithing Rework (08/12/2024)** as an effort to deepen item creation mechanics. **Rarity** The Oil of Enchantment is classified as semi-rare. Its supply is dependent on specific treasure drops from higher-tier combat and PVM bosses (notably bosses like Raksha and Croesus). Limited supply chains and intermittent spikes in demand drive fluid pricing. Its inclusion as a potential Treasure Hunter reward after its release initially caused price volatility, as evidenced in historical data. --- ### **Price Trends and Historical Analysis** #### **Key Historical Insights** 1. **2022-2023 Trends: Early Stability and Surges** Prices fluctuated between 10M and 20M from February 2022 to December 2022. Early demand was driven by the general interest in high-tier pockets and consumables post-Croesus release (09/27/2021). Interestingly, the release of Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022) also caused a drop in supply as many niche resources were consumed in the new economy, slightly inflating the Oil's price. 2. **Massive Spikes in 2023** There was an astronomical price surge to **75M in mid-2023** (reaching its peak). This coincided with **Scrimshaw Duping (01/29/2023)** and a combat meta overhaul with **Necromancy (08/07/2023)** that shifted demand to specific augmented gear, paired with increased gold availability caused by duping. By July 2023, the **Red Portal bug** (07/04/2023) further flooded the market with GP, exaggerating price trends. 3. **Collapse in Late 2023 - Early Adaptation Period (Post-Necromancy)** With the **Red Portal abuse revisited (11/08/2023)** and the release of new partyhats (12/01/2023), liquidity across items tanked. This crashed the Oil of Enchantment’s price down to 4M (02/26/2024). The reduction in its utility caused by more accessible pocket items also diminished long-term demand. --- #### **2024 Trends** 1. **Price Depression in Early 2024 (Post-Easter Dupes)** **Gummy rewards and dupes (04/01/2024)** caused market saturation of materials and GP, exacerbated by the addition of **1B GP Treasure Hunter rewards (04/10/2024)**. The combination of oversupply for resources and diminished demand set a new floor. 2. **Recovery Phase (May - Sep 2024)** The **Max Cash update exploit (05/15/2024)** injected trillions of GP into the economy again. This caused oil prices to rebound sharply, peaking at 10.405M by 11/04/2024 as resource-based inflation and increased demand for augmentables temporarily drove price restoration. --- ### **Price Prediction Over the Next Few Months** - **Base Prediction**: Price will stabilize between **8M–12M GP** in Q4 2024 and early 2025. Recovery is fueled by increased late-year demand from resources being consumed for PvM upgrades or utility after October’s dupe cleanup phase. - **Events to Watch**: - Potential nerfs/reworks on augmentable materials as Jagex addresses economy balance issues. - Christmas event (2024): Seasonal disruption could drive slight price dips due to general market diversification of consumable investments. - **Prediction Model**: Given the repetitive price peaks of 8-10M after market corrections, conservatively, Oil of Enchantment will hold its value around 10M by February 2025 unless another major exploit (or new consumable meta) occurs. --- ### **Flipping Margins** - **Typical Margins**: 500K–1M GP per trade cycle. The volatility of fluctuating supply makes this item an excellent mid-tier flipping option. Buying near the floor price range of **8M** and selling closer to **10M–11M** is easily achievable given historical trading volumes. - **Optimal Market Periods for Flipping**: - Post-event cleanup phases after dupes or TH reward activity (such as after **Easter Dupes (April 2024)** or general GP releases). - Late December through January (Post-holiday increased liquidity). --- ### **Similar Items for Investment** 1. **Lumbridge Scroll of Augmentation** This item mirrors similar demand dynamics and occasional supply-blocks. The Smithing rework buffs rely on augmentable commodities, aligning market trends. 2. **Colorful Plumes** Though a skilling-secondary tier item, it often serves as a low-tier variation to pocket-slot crafts. Cheaper to buy and less volatile, offering smaller margins for high-volume flipping. 3. **Enhanced Replenishment Potions** These consumables consistently track alongside accessories' utility-driven demand patterns, especially during PVM meta overhauls. --- ### **Seasonal Impacts on Pricing** #### **Positive Outcomes**: - Q3 (July–September): The summer skilling meta usually leads to higher consumable demand as players push XP events. - Q4 (November–December): Pre-holiday hype often sees GP flow into rarer items, raising Oil of Enchantment's price. #### **Negative Outcomes**: - Q2 (April–May): Cleanup post-Easter dupes/events often collapses high consumable prices. --- By using flipping as part of your overall strategy while monitoring demand spikes (especially following augmentable updates), Oil of Enchantment can remain a highly profitable opportunity.