### Summary of the Second Age Bow The Second Age Bow is a rare cosmetic weapon introduced through **Treasure Hunter** on **October 4, 2021**, as part of the Second Age-themed prize pool. Like other Second Age weapons, it is a purely cosmetic override, prized for its value as a status symbol due to its combination of rarity and aesthetic design. The bow represents the opulence of the Second Age, featuring a highly detailed golden and silver trim with emerald embellishments, appealing to collectors and those looking to flex wealth. It is one of the more desirable Second Age rares, as ranged Second Age overrides have fewer counterparts compared to melee and magic weapons, driving up its relative demand among high-profile players. Combined with its infrequent availability via Treasure Hunter, it sees periodic extreme price rises whenever re-releases or economy-altering updates occur. ### Rarity The Second Age set as a whole is fairly rare within the Treasure Hunter ecosystem, made so by the limited availability of promotional events featuring it. Even during promotions, the rarity weighting for high-value Second Age pieces (like the bow) is exceptionally high, putting it in competition with discontinued tradeable rares in terms of perceived desirability. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Trends **Historical Price Points:** At release, the Second Age Bow circulated at around **270M–320M GP** during 2021-2022, fluctuating with updates to Treasure Hunter and the overall economy. By **2023**, severe gold inflation (primarily the **January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe** and numerous player hacks/lures) drove prices for rare items up sharply in late 2023 through early 2024. This period witnessed explosive growth in the bow's price, culminating in an all-time high of **999.9M GP** on **March 29, 2024**, concurrent with the **combat update** hype. However, several inflation-curbing updates followed, such as the **Max Cash exploit fixes** and GP injection through **Treasure Hunter**, resulting in a steep decline to **292M GP** by mid-November 2024. **Key Factors Influencing Price Volatility:** 1. **Inflation Trends**: Large GP injections, such as January 2023's dupes, significantly inflated high-tier rares. Conversely, intentional GP drains (like introducing **high-cost TH sinks**) have caused downward pressure. The bow's volatility correlates tightly with these cycles. 2. **Re-release Concerns**: Though minimal, the occasional resurfacing of Second Age items on Treasure Hunter creates bursts of supply panic, like those seen in late 2022. 3. **Combat and Skilling Meta Shifts**: Changes like the **Necromancy update** in August 2023 temporarily stabilize or boost prices of older cosmetic gear as high-profile players pivot toward new fashions. 4. **Luxury Demand Cycles**: Seasonal cosmetic collecting spikes, such as around holidays (e.g., December for grants of excess wealth or fashion budgets), have historically seen slight upticks in prices. --- ### Price Prediction for the Next Few Months Given historical price trends and Jagex's economic adjustments, the future trajectory of the Second Age Bow depends on additional GP shocks or incoming updates. Here’s the likely scenario by quarter: #### **Q4 2024 - Q1 2025** - **Short-term (now to Q1 2025)**: Stable to slight recovery. - Following the **November 2024 GIM bank bug** contributing modest gold flooding, the Second Age Bow appears undervalued at 292M. It will begin recovering as we enter December, when holiday demand for cosmetics traditionally rises. - **Predicted Range**: **340M–375M GP** by February 2025. #### **Outlook for 2025** - **Mid-term (Spring-Summer 2025)**: Risk of further dips. - If **more Treasure Hunter GP events** or re-releases of Second Age items occur, we may see the price stagnate or decline slightly. - **Predicted Low Ceiling**: 260M–280M during this phase. - **Long-term potential**: By late-2025, prices will stabilize above **350M**, assuming no massive dupes or re-release of Second Age items. --- ### Flipping Margins 1. **Short-Term Flipping**: With its current volatility, the bow offers prominent flipping margins ranging between **15–50M GP**. Leveraging buy-ins during panics (e.g., after Treasure Hunter keys are discounted by Jagex) and selling closer to high-traffic holidays like Christmas or Valentine's Day maximizes profit potential. 2. **Best Strategy**: Tracking supply surges from Treasure Hunter promotions is critical. For example, past data indicates that re-releases of Second Age overrides depress prices briefly before rebounding as collectors absorb the market surplus. --- ### Related Investments For players seeking complementary diversification while maintaining exposure to similar luxury items, consider: 1. **Second Age Staff**: Another high-demand Second Age piece with similar volatility. Prices typically move in tandem with the bow. 2. **Black Santa Hat (Tradeable)**: Though seasonal, these have outperformed cosmetics during inflation spikes, making them a relatively stable counterpart for long-term traders. 3. **Third Age Ranged Coif and Body**: These synergize with ranged gear sets, and Third Age items have seen periodic booms due to nostalgia-driven updates or skilling meta changes. --- ### Seasonal Factors on Pricing 1. **Positive Outcomes:** - **Winter (December – February)**: The cosmetic market surges around the holidays as GP-rich players splurge on high-status items. - **Post-Summer Stabilization (September)**: Often a catch-up period for returning players, leading to price neutrality or moderate growth. 2. **Negative Outcomes:** - **Spring/Summer (April – July)**: Treasure Hunter-heavy seasons with GP inflation sinks cause supply-driven downward pressure on luxury goods. --- ### Final Recommendation The Second Age Bow is both a luxury speculative investment and a prime flipping item due to its predictable reaction to market events. Accumulate positions during rare price dips below 300M to resell during seasonal highs or GP inflation periods, particularly benefitting from holiday demand by December 2024. Focus on complementary cosmetics and meta-relevant tradeables for added diversification.