### **Third Age Rage Top: Deep Analysis** **Summary, Release, and Rarity:** The Third Age Rage Top is part of the "Third Age" cosmetic category, appealing to collectors and high-tier appearance-focused players. It was introduced in 2021 as a Treasure Hunter promotional reward with a very low probability of being obtained, maintaining its rarity. The Third Age sets have become particularly valuable over time due to their aesthetic appeal, tradeable nature, and association with old-school RuneScape aesthetics in RS3. Its limited availability is reinforced by the reliance on Treasure Hunter events and the absence of consistent re-releases. Third Age items, including the Rage Top, are highly subject to market manipulation and general GP inflations due to the extreme wealth requirements for their procurement. This makes them a sought-after item for endgame merchants and rich status-seekers. --- ### **Price History & Trends Analysis (Using Provided Data):** From the pricing data: 1. **Initial Stability and Growth (2022):** Upon release, the price fluctuated between 83M and 140M GP but generally trended upward as demand outpaced supply. The introduction of Fresh Start Worlds (September 2022) and Treasure Hunter-related market exhaustion likely caused modest short-term stabilization. 2. **Early Inflation Spike (2023 - Pre-Necromancy):** Prices saw notable jumps post-Duel Arena removal (January 2022) and soared further following significant gold injections caused by dupe exploits like the 700B+ Scrimshaw incident (January 2023). By mid-year, it reached 118M GP during the Necromancy update (August 2023) due to heightened economic activity and optional spending by returning players. 3. **Skyrockets with Re-introduced Supply Issues (2024):** After RuneScape content updates like combat rebalancing and exploit patching, its price jumped to a staggering 205M GP by March 2024. The Max Cash update in May 2024 temporarily disrupted trading confidence, leading to a sharp dip to ~152M GP. As of 2024-10-04, current prices hover around **184.1M GP, stabilizing slightly below prior peaks.** --- ### **Factors Influencing Price Changes:** - **Major Gold Injection Events (Player Manipulation Challenges):** Rollback dupes, hacks, and exploits repeatedly introduced trillions of GP into the economy, directly inflating high-value tradable cosmetics like the Third Age Rage Top. Established players with surplus funds often park wealth in rare items to hedge against GP devaluation. - **Critical Cosmetic Supply Changes:** Treasure Hunter promotions and incentive seasons repeatedly affect prices. Events that increase Treasure Hunter engagement (like the release of bonds, pet reworks, etc.) can indirectly increase supply levels for Third Age items, causing temporary price dips. - **Demand Resurgence from New Content:** Updates catering to collectors or demanding high-tier gear indirectly inflate cosmetic prices. For example, Necromancy (August 2023) boosted demand for high-wealth items as players aimed to reflect prestige during the skill’s hype release window. - **Economic Impacts of Cash Flow Exploits:** Updates like the Max Cash exploit (May 2024) led to destruction of player confidence in high-value markets; prices dipped substantially (~25% in days) as traders re-established margins. Similar volatility was caused by sudden Treasure Hunter gp floods. --- ### **Price Prediction (Next Few Months):** Given historical price fluctuations and considering upcoming RuneScape content schedules and economic tweaks, I predict the following trends for the **Third Age Rage Top**: - **Short Term (October - December 2024): Stable Growth (190M - 210M GP)** Likely minor growth through late fall due to increased interest from returning players post-winter events. The GIM Bank bug dupe in November might cause slight GP inflation without severely impacting this specific item. - **Midterm (January - March 2025): Potential Dip (~170M - 190M GP)** With post-holiday economic adjustments and cash-targeted Treasure Hunter events, demand may slow. By March 2025, player cash reserves could shift toward competently valuable PvM gear or skilling requirements from newly announced seasonal content. - **Long Term (Spring 2025): Inflated Spike (~220M GP)** Anticipate another rapid rise around new skill or boss announcements when high-tier merchandise typically experiences increased volume in speculative trades. --- ### **Profit Margins for Flipping:** - Average flipping margins for the Third Age Rage Top tend to vary between **2-5%** (3M-9M GP per item) depending on volumes traded and market volatility spikes. - During chaos events (e.g. dupes, Treasure Hunter updates), rapid undercutting or overpurchasing widens margins to as much as **10-15% (18M GP+)**, provided you can buy and sell during peaks and dips effectively. --- ### **Complementary Investment Suggestions:** - **Other Third Age Items:** *Third Age Druidic Cloak or Third Age Mage Hat* are suitable alternatives given their similar rarity and market histories. Complementary buying boosts portfolio flexibility during Treasure Hunter supply shocks. - **Portables and Treasure Hunter Disposables:** Items like *portable skilling packs, lamps*, or *overstock star fragments* also see consistent price inflation proportional to rare Treasure Hunter rewards. - **Player-Owned Farm Licenses:** A niche market, but becomes lucrative when combined with GP flux periods (e.g. December 2023’s Black Party Drops). --- ### **Seasonal Timing Strategies:** - **Positive Price Impacts:** - New content seasons (*skills, bosses, cosmetics*) significantly inflate likely demand for rare prestige items. Example: Pre-Necromancy release spike (July-August 2023). - Early-year recoveries post-low liquidity seasons (February-March). - **Negative Price Impacts:** - Winter holiday event periods often coincide with a market flooded by surplus players liquidating gear for new investments (e.g. December 2023 Black Partyhat dumps). - Treasure Hunter GP floods or incentivized extra keys often disrupt collector-oriented items, leading to downward corrections. In summary, mastery of timing, seasonal cycles, and GP manipulation awareness is key to maximizing profits with luxury items like the Third Age Rage Top.