### Item Overview: **Second Age Robe Bottom** The Second Age Robe Bottom is a prestigious and ultra-rare cosmetic item in RuneScape 3, acclaimed for its association with Second Age fashion. It was introduced in 2017 through **Treasure Hunter's "Time-Honored" promotion**, which featured this and other Second Age gear as possible rewards. Its primary appeal lies in its cosmetic status, historical aesthetic, and extreme scarcity, as these items were discontinued following the promotion's conclusion. Items from the Second Age set are often viewed as luxury commodities, embodying status and wealth rather than utility. ### Release Date: - **2017**, through a Treasure Hunter promotion. ### Rarity: - Extremely rare. As a discontinued item, the only source is from current players trading them, further intensifying its scarcity as more players hoard these items or quit the game. --- ### Historical Price Analysis #### Trends & Notable Spikes: An analysis of historical price data for the Second Age Robe Bottom, juxtaposed with critical game events, reveals a highly volatile price curve. Initially reserved for billionaires and collectors, the item's price follows broader economic trends in RuneScape. Here are some notable movements and speculative causes: 1. **Steady Decline—Post-Duel Arena Removal (01/04/2022):** With Duel Arena being a pivotal gold-sinking mechanism, its removal introduced excess GP into the economy. This stagnated Second Age item prices as GP demand started being outstripped by supply. 2. **Boom Period—Fresh Start Worlds (09/22/2022):** Fresh Start Worlds drove speculative investment in rare items like the Second Age set, leading to an increasing price as normal servers saw renewed GP injections. 3. **Crash Period—Player Hacking and Dupes (2023):** Broad crisis events like the Scrimshaw dupe (January 2023) and Necromancy release (August 2023) brought short-term declines. In particular, gold floods massively devalued rare items as players prioritized tangible gear or high-utility resources. 4. **Stability—Post-Economy Adjustments:** The price through late 2023 and 2024 stabilized around **650-700M GP**, with momentary spikes tied to Jagex updates (e.g., Treasure Hunter) such as the **Black Partyhat promotion** in December 2023. 5. **Spikes with Exploits (Q1-Q3 2024):** The Max Cash update exploit (May 2024) injected trillions into the economy, briefly driving rampant inflation—and subsequently driving items like these to new peaks (e.g., **1B+ GP spikes in July 2024**). However, the **Mining & Smithing rework (August 2024)** balanced the economy by adding fresh trade sources of GP, which caused a downturn back to **650-720M GP**. --- ### Current Market Analysis: - **Present Value (Dec 2024):** Estimated ~659M GP based on recent trades. - **Short-term trend:** The price seems to be range-bound between **650M-720M GP** but has slight downward pressure due to macroeconomic uncertainties. --- ### Future Price Prediction (2025 Outlook) 1. **High Probability Bullish Scenarios**: - **Treasure Hunter scarcity improvements:** If Jagex avoids over-saturating the game with similar-discontinued items, the Second Age Robe Bottom could creep upward toward **750M-900M GP**. - **Gold sink mechanisms:** Reintroduction of a new gold sink akin to Duel Arena (or PvP GP destruction) could further shore up prices by reducing GP surplus. 2. **Bearish Risks**: - **Over-Inflation Events:** New exploits or dupes could again depress prices further into the **600-650M GP** range, which may become the floor. - **Player Base Decline or Prioritization of Utility Gear:** Items like these are purely cosmetic, so a shift in market taste might reduce demand. Overall Prediction: Prices will likely **oscillate between 650M and 800M GP across Q1 and Q2 2025**, depending on Jagex updates, exploit control, and incentive structures. --- ### Flipping Margins: - Typical flipping margins for the Second Age Robe Bottom hover around **15M-40M GP**, depending on the quantity being traded. - **Best times for flipping**: Shortly before major promotional events on Treasure Hunter (e.g., Black Friday), when players liquidate assets, or after economic havoc (such as a GP dupe). - **Flipping Tip**: Always target off-peak trading hours with low liquidity to secure wider profit margins. --- ### Suggested Alternative Investments: If you’re looking for similar items to invest or trade in parallel, consider the following: 1. **Second Age Robe Top**: Closely tied to the same cosmetic set with a near-identical price trajectory. 2. **Ornamental Partyhats (e.g., Black Partyhat, Rainbow Partyhat)**: These unique hats often move in tandem with discontinued cosmetics and appeal to the same audience. 3. **Third-Age Druidic Equipment**: Rare, discontinued items with supply scarcity and steady high-value demand. --- ### Seasonal Market Patterns: - **Post-January Downturn (Q1):** Generally correlates with gold flooding or updates aimed at increasing treasure purchases, diluting rare item values. Terrible time to hold cosmetics. - **May-July Boom:** Players spending post-promotion earnings on niche rares often leads to rising demand for discontinued items like Second Age Robe Bottoms. - **October-November:** Speculative volatility ramps up prior to Black Friday and RuneScape anniversary events. Great time for flipping but risky for holding. In conclusion, the Second Age Robe Bottom remains a highly desirable item with a competitive market. If flipping, avoid overexposure to this one item—use its movements as a proxy for other discontinued item trades. Focus on timing purchases post-crash events and selling into speculative demand closer to key updates.