### **Analysis of the Third Age Amulet** #### **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity** The Third Age Amulet is a high-tier rare item in RuneScape 3, part of the prestigious Third Age Equipment set. It was introduced to the game through Treasure Trails (Elite clue scrolls) as part of the Third Age rewards. These items are sought after for their rarity, aesthetic appeal, and the prestige they bring to any account, even though they don't provide combat advantages over non-cosmetic alternatives. The amulet, like its counterparts, is an exceedingly rare drop (estimated at a less than 1/20k chance per Elite clue scroll). Third Age items are unaffected by power creep due to their cosmetic nature, meaning their desirability boils down to their rarity, historical prestige, and appeal to collectors. This gives them inherent long-term value. However, their price remains highly volatile due to market activity, the introduction of new gold into the game, or competing collectibles. #### **Price History Insights** This item has demonstrated significant fluctuations over time, reflecting broader economic impacts in RuneScape. The key points in its price trends align with key game events, demonstrating its sensitivity to macroeconomic shifts: 1. **2023 and Earlier Trends:** After a relatively steady range between 350M–450M in 2022, its price spike in late 2023 (to over 490M) corresponds to economic uncertainty following major exploits such as the **Scrimshaw dupe (Jan 2023)** and the **Necromancy skill release (Aug 2023)**. Once prices stabilized in early 2024 post-player backlash (due to GP hoarding and market corrections after Jagex interventions), the amulet re-entered a downward trend. 2. **Explosive Growth in June 2024:** A dramatic increase (spiked at 1B GP in June 2024) is directly tied to the **Max Cash Update exploitation** and higher bond prices. These updates introduced trillions of GP into the economy, inflating rare items temporarily. 3. **Post-Exploitation Decline in Late 2024:** Selling pressure from gold hoarders and new content (e.g., Sanctum of Rebirth and Smithing update in July-Aug 2024) shifted attention away from collectibles such as the Third Age Amulet back to combat and utility gear. The amulet stabilized at around 500–600M. #### **Price Prediction (Short-Term)** Based on the historical pattern and market behaviors: - Current price (~513M GP) seems to be stabilizing after the fiscal chaos of mid-2024. - Prices may see a modest rise to **550–600M GP by February 2025**, followed by gradual corrections downward into **450–500M GP by mid-2025** as economic balancing effects roll out from post-exploitation measures and player gold sinks. - Wealthier players may anticipate further price growth in 2025 due to collectible demand, but this will largely depend on whether any further Treasure Hunter promotional rewards dilute the rarity of these items. Critical upside threats: Another economy-breaking dupe or more aggressive GP injects from Treasure Hunter. Critical downside risks: Increased availability of Third Age rewards in clue scrolls, potentially from a future game update or seasonal promotion. #### **Flipping Margins** Given the volatility and the market cap of Third Age items, flipping margins for this amulet are typically **10–30M GP** per trade, assuming careful buy and sell offers persist on the Grand Exchange. This flipping range can spike during periods of intense economic events: - *Peak margin example:* June-July 2024 saw margins as high as **50-100M**, enabling rapid flipping of Third Age items. - Low market activity, on the other hand, can compress margins to **5-10M**, especially during stable price zones. Expert flipping strategies: 1. Occasional low-ball offers right after Treasure Hunter promotions or patch release timelines with known rewards (e.g., **April 2024 Treasure Hunter GP dump**). 2. Selling during hype patches (e.g., major raiding content) when high GP players compete for limited collectibles. #### **Similar Items to Buy** If you’re diversifying your portfolio or looking for strong correlated alternatives to Third Age Amulet, consider: 1. **Third Age Mage Hat or Robe Top:** Historically stable and similarly impacted by macroeconomic changes. 2. **Ornament Kits and Dye-Recolored Items (e.g., shadow-dyed noxious weapons):** Tend to follow collectible demand curves. 3. **First Age Items (Amulet, Staff, etc.):** Rising in popularity among collectors for their novelty and aesthetic appeal. 4. **Halloween and Christmas Rares:** Traditionally spike during seasonal events and then correct soon after due to player trends. #### **Seasonal Market Patterns** - **Positive Price Movements:** Occur during periods of low economic uncertainty or when GP injection occurs (e.g., post-Treasure Hunter rewards, winter holidays when casual players drive demand for collectibles like Third Age gear). - **Negative Price Movements:** Often happen post exploits, dupes, or large economy-shaking updates. For example, following the **Max Cash exploit (May 2024)**, the item demonstrated rapid gains due to panic GP purchasing, but significant corrections are always inevitable after inflated periods. #### **Conclusion** The Third Age Amulet remains a high-value investment item driven more by aesthetics and rarity than practical utility. As the RuneScape economy continues to face cycles of exploitation and correction, the amulet will likely retain value in the second-hand market but with volatility tied to macro-level in-game economic changes. It remains attractive for collectors, investors, and flippers willing to time the market effectively. Diversify into other Third Age gear or holiday rares alongside the amulet for better risk management.