### Summary of Third Age Platelegs The **Third Age Platelegs** are an iconic item in RuneScape, part of the **Third Age Melee set**, acquired exclusively from Clue Scroll rewards (Elite and Master tiers). These legs serve as high-tier prestige armor, with no combat bonuses beyond decorative value. Released on **August 28, 2007** alongside the broader **Treasure Trails update**, their allure stems from sheer rarity and association with the "Third Age." As these come solely from RNG-based clue scroll rewards, the frequency of acquisition is exceedingly low, making them a coveted item for collectors and merchants. Their trade history in RuneScape 3 (RS3) reflects their niche market appeal. High GP fluctuations, driven by macroeconomic instability from player-based gold influxes and Jagex’s content strategies, make them a prized yet volatile asset. Recent pricing ranges from **~376M (September 2023)** to **~1.3B (December 2024)**. --- ### Rarity and Influences 1. **Drop Rate**: Estimated in Elite Clues at ~1 in 273,128 and even rarer for Master Clues. The low number of wealthy clue hunters enhances scarcity. 2. **Market Impact**: Clue scroll-related Treasure Hunter promotions (like **2x Clues on Master Scrolls**) occasionally increase market flow slightly but typically fail to devalue items due to persistent rarity. 3. **Macro Factors**: Frequent gold manipulation events (dupes, economy exploitations) have consistently destabilized prices over time, influencing mass buyouts or panic-selling events. --- ### Price Analysis and Predictions #### Historical Context (Data Recap): 1. **Stable Periods**: Between **2022-2023**, Third Age Platelegs traded within a relatively tight range of **~540M - 580M**, only breaking out of this range during exceptional events. 2. **Spikes**: Post-update bug abuse or high GP inflow moments (e.g., January 2023 Scrimshaw dupe) often led to rapid upward swings due to players parking their GP into high-value items. Average spikes during floods are around **30%-60%** increases over baseline. 3. **Crashes**: Items like Third Age Platelegs experience dips during player cashing-out events or manipulations (e.g., **September 2023 Hero Pass backlash** coincided with prices dropping to **376M**, as gold exited the game alongside engagement backlash). #### Recent Recovery and Speculation (2024): From **~590M (April 2024)**, prices skyrocketed to **1.3B+ (December 2024)**. This can be linked to the **post-max cash exploit meta**, where excessively liquid wealth dominated high-value super-rares like Third Age items. Additionally, events like **Sanctum of Rebirth** and **Mining/Smithing Reworks (Q3 2024)** boosted player wealth, pushing collectible demand. #### Prediction (2024-2025): Expect Third Age Platelegs to stabilize near **~1.1B - 1.4B** through **Q1 2025**, with potential upward short-term spikes during **Treasure Hunter promotions** (e.g., early 2025 Clue-centric events). However, **threats** like major gold sinks or additional dupes (e.g., GIM Bank Bug Nov 2024) could cause further price volatility. Long-term, the natural GP influx from **ongoing economy-tied Treasure Hunter promotions** may lead to sustained inflation across rare items by mid-2025, with **Platelegs** edging closer to **1.5B+** or beyond. --- ### Flipping Margins and Trading Insights 1. **Ideal Margins:** Currently, flipping Third Age Platelegs yields profit margins of **50M - 100M+ GP** during periods of stabilization or growing demand. Short-term buy/sell cycles are competitive due to infrequent trade volumes, meaning longer hold strategies (~2-4 weeks) often outperform rapid flipping attempts. 2. **Strategic Flipping:** Avoid periods when Jagex rolls out high-gold GP giveaways (e.g., **Billion GP Treasure Hunter drops**) as sellers saturate the market to cash out. Instead, flip them during **rumored new Treasure Trail updates** or holidays when collectors drive buyouts. --- ### Complementary Items to Invest In - **Third Age Weapons:** Third Age Melee weapons (Longsword/Shield) match the rarity but are undervalued relative to Platelegs. They often see simultaneous demand booms during wealth surges. - **Third Age Range/Mage:** As part of rounded sets, Range/Mage equipment behaves similarly and provides diversification against melee-exclusive slowdowns in demand. - **Gilded Armor Sets**: Less rare but still niche for fashion-scape players. Cheaper barriers to entry allow speculative holdings during clue updates. - **Corrupted Dye Items:** While unrelated to clues, these serve as alternate speculative holdings for wealthy players retreating into collectibles during market crashes. --- ### Seasonal Price Trends 1. **Positive Trends (Price Increases)**: - **Holiday Seasons (December, April):** Increased player engagement improves demand for prestige items. - Post-content economic gold floods (e.g., **July 2024 Max Cash Exploit** or **Sanctum of Rebirth**). - Player Wealth Growth Phases: Instances where larger GP inflows flow into higher-value items (e.g., clue scroll events providing collectable rares). 2. **Negative Trends (Price Declines)**: - **After Dupes**: GP drops post-exploit (e.g., **late 2024 after GIM bugs**) when panic-selling occurs. - Jagex Major Economy Changes: e.g., **black partyhat release or new cosmetics devaluing older rares**. - Competitive Rare Market Pressure: Surge in new content leading to a buyer shift. --- In conclusion, Third Age Platelegs are an inherently volatile yet lucrative investment option. Monitoring Treasure Hunter updates, game-breaking economy bugs, and seasonal activity spikes will ensure you profit while minimizing risk. Diversify your portfolio with related high-fashion rares and capitalize on wider trends in collectible markets to maximize returns.