### Overview of the Third Age Full Helmet The **Third Age Full Helmet** is part of the scarce and highly coveted *Third Age Melee Set* obtained exclusively through the Treasure Trails reward system (Elite and Master clue scrolls). Since its introduction in **2007**, the helmet has persisted as one of RuneScape’s most iconic rarities due to its aesthetic appeal and rarity. It has no distinct combat utility, serving more as a luxurious status symbol—coveted by both collectors and investors. ### Release Date and Rarity While the item is technically available any time a player completes an Elite or Master clue scroll, its drop rate is astronomically low—reported to be around **1 in 320,000** per clue, depending on the chest tier. This rarity ensures its position as one of the most aspirational cosmetics in RuneScape. **Key Insights:** 1. **Low circulation:** Due to its decade-plus rarity, Third Age helmets tend to be tightly held by veteran collectors rather than rapidly traded. 2. **Market volatility:** The price fluctuates wildly, heavily influenced by GP dupe events, Treasure Trail updates, and spikes in gambling activities. --- ### Historical and Recent Price Trends From the price history, we see significant volatility, with a low of **60M** in mid-2022, a bounce back to **500M** in early 2022, and more gradual fluctuations throughout 2023-2024. Recently, as of November 2024, its price surged to **309M**, following a deep drop earlier in September 2024 to **218M**. **Key Observations:** 1. **Impact of Treasure Hunter Changes:** Events like the **1B GP Treasure Hunter reward (April 2024)** and **Max Cash limit exploit (May 2024)** introduced massive gold injections, devaluing GP. This led to a rise in hard-to-obtain items like Third Age pieces, which serve as "wealth storage." 2. **Necromancy / Level 152 Update Spike (August 2023):** Combat updates often make players reconsider fashion scape for their "new" accounts, increasing rare cosmetic demand temporarily. Third Age Helmet rose from 112M in early August to 250M by mid-August. 3. **Hero Pass Update Backlash (September 2023):** Following significant backlash, Jagex experienced a player drop-off. This stagnated demand, causing price drops. 4. **Sanctum of Rebirth and Mining/Smithing Rework (July-August 2024):** PVM updates/tree reworks stimulate item trading activities due to higher player incentives to complete clue scrolls, temporarily increasing the helmet’s supply. --- ### Price Predictions for Coming Months Using past trends and accounting for upcoming holiday events/end-year updates: 1. **Short-Term (November 2024 - January 2025):** Based on traditional holiday trends, the Third Age Full Helmet will likely see **increased demand**. New players enter the economy during Christmas, while veterans clear wealth due to holiday spending. Expect prices to rise from **309M to 340M-360M** by January. 2. **Mid-Term (Feb-April 2025):** Post-holiday gold hoarding trends favor rare-item speculation. If major GP injections occur from Treasure Hunter or exploits, prices could climb **380M+**. However, a Treasure Trails overhaul or clue-scroll supply surge could shift the trend downward. #### Factors That Could Derail or Enhance Price Growth: - **Negative Impact Scenarios:** - A Treasure Trails system rework (increased drops). - Treasure Hunter mechanics offering **direct Third Age reroll rewards.** - **Positive Price Drivers:** - A post-budget economy with inflationary tactics from Jagex. - High-profile "clue events" that drive visibility and interest. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins Third Age items, including the helmet, have **wide margins for flipping** because of their volatility. Based on recent price swings: 1. Typical **buy-sell gap**: ~5%-10%. - Example: Buying at 290M, selling high at 320M (~15-20M profit). 2. **Rapid climbs/dips:** If flipping during price revisions after major updates or exploits (e.g., the Max Cash dupe), returns can spike to **15%-25% margins.** 3. **Risk:** The downside here is a lack of liquidity; expensive items like the Third Age Full Helmet may sit for extended times unless a quick speculator or fashion scape buyer arrives. **Flipping advice:** - Focus flips on holiday peak seasons (December-February). - Secure items during GP injection windows (e.g., Treasure Hunter buffs, dupe sweeps) since panic sellers will enter markets. --- ### Comparable Items to Watch and Buy If you’re interested in diversifying investment but staying adjacent to Third Age rarities: 1. **Third Age Platebody and Platelegs:** Typically rise and fall alongside the helmet since set collectors drive demand for all. 2. **Third Age Weapons:** Of lower demand but share correlation during clue-related promotions. 3. **Wardrobe & Similar Clue Drops:** Other cosmetic "hard clues," such as Gilded Armor (cheaper alternative) or Ice Dye items, often exhibit parallel trends. 4. **Black Partyhat (New Release):** Unstable pricing suggests heavy flipping opportunities in this space. As with previous rare colors, hoarders tend to lock up supply, stabilizing long-term prices. --- ### Seasonal and General Market Timing 1. **Positive Times for Rare Items:** - **Winter Holidays (December-January):** Wealth injections from new players and returning veterans. High liquidity means rising speculative buying. - **Mid-Summer Events (June-August):** Seasonal updates such as reworks entice players into long-item investments and fashion-driven show-offs. 2. **Challenging Periods:** - **April-May Post-Holiday Lull:** Speculators sell post-Christmas holdings, flooding markets after February peaks. - **Treasure Hunter Buffs:** If Jagex directly impacts clue scrolls, prices can abate sharply. In short, any economic disruption from Jagex or a dupe release could destabilize rare markets—making the helmet both a speculative treasure and a riskier long-term hold.