### **Summary of the Magma Core** The **Magma Core** is a valuable item from the **TzekHaar Front** in the Elder God Wars Dungeon, acting as an exceptionally rare drop from **Arch-Glacor** in hard mode. It was first released on **October 25, 2021**, with the wider Elder God Wars bosses. Despite not being a combat-use item itself, it is highly sought as a tradeable cosmetic and collection piece for high-end players and investors due to its scarcity and prestige. Magma Core’s rarity lies in its somewhat limited drop availability and direct competition among high-level PvMers farming other rare materials or components like scripture pages or numina. Coupled with long-term player demand for Elder God Wars achievements, its value has seen extreme fluctuations over its market lifespan. --- ### **Rarity Analysis** Relative to Elder God Wars’ lucrative rewards pool, the Magma Core is exceptionally rare, even when compared to similar “trophy” drops across RuneScape content. Its drop rates, while undisclosed, are likely on the level of a 1/6,000 or worse chance during Arch-Glacor hard mode, based on rarity prevalence typical of other Eldritch cosmetic-tier drops. Drops like the **Blightbound Crossbow** or **Inverted Capes** in Fresh Start Worlds place this item as one of RuneScape's top-tier treasures in terms of prestige without direct combat utility. The majority of price volatility in its historical graph stems less from a direct supply metric (as farming the item isn’t prolific) and more due to external GP market events diluting gold’s buying power, alongside player trading psychology. --- ### **Historical Price Trend & Observations** From 2021 onward, the **Magma Core’s price movements clearly mirror Key RuneScape Economic Events** rather than inherent item value trends: 1. **November 2021 (~2.1B):** It peaked during Elder God Wars' initial hype phase and corresponding post-dupe market instability. Players flush with gold sought valuable, rare items to "park" their GP amidst wealth degradation. 2. **March 2022 (811M):** Price softened after the ecosystem stabilized following the Duel Arena removal. Volume likely increased as PvMers started diversifying into other GWD fronts or banned dupe gold receded. 3. **Late 2022 – Fresh Start Worlds (~650M):** Fresh Start Worlds caused price rebounds due to influxes of both new players and speculators creating short-term demand for rare cosmetics. 4. **First half of 2023 (~400-500M):** A significant GP sink occurred from mass player hacks and GP-rich exploits disrupting liquidity; this tanked luxury item prices, despite Magma Core's demand profile remaining niche. 5. **2024 Rebound (~500M-512M):** Despite Treasure Hunter GP inflation (1B GP drops introduced to TH), Magma Core saw relative demand persist as it was considered less farmable, while most item prices dipped sharply. --- ### **Future Price Prediction** Historical volatility and catalyzing external events underscore Magma Core’s price likelihood to respond sharply to game-wide systemic changes rather than linear growth/decay cycles. With this in mind: - **Short-term (1-3 months, post-May 2024):** Prices around **520M-550M** due to the market adapting to the Max Cash exploitation and associated GP inflation spike will likely create smaller margins for resale flipping. - Player gold sinks and the upcoming **Mining/Smithing expansion (August 2024)** may introduce a broader gold retraction, stabilizing luxury cosmetics in these weeks. - **Late 2024 Prediction (>August):** Assuming no major destabilization (e.g., a dupe or balance-breaking Treasure Hunter promo), Magma Core price will consolidate between **450-475M**, as speculative PvM interest wanes and economics around skilling activities rise. Historically, Jagex has prioritized balance around GPs in broader recovery periods, weighing future updates (Aug-Sanctum patch expansions + September treasure revival). ### Price volatility weather example changes are touches season seeds