### **Summary of the Obsidian Blade (TzKal-Zuk):** The Obsidian Blade is a high-tier weapon originating from the Elder God Wars Dungeon, specifically tied to the TzKal-Zuk encounter in the TzekHaar Front. Released with the boss on *July 26, 2021*, this weapon features Tier 95 melee statistics, making it one of the strongest melee weapons for PvM (Player-versus-Monster) content. Its rarity primarily results from the difficulty of the Zuk kill and the drop mechanics, requiring dedicated, high-tier players to farm it. As a high-end gear choice, it retains value not just for raw stats but also for prestige among the PvM community. ### **Historical Rarity and Availability Insights:** - Upon release in 2021, the weapon spiked considerably due to its novelty, meta relevance, and the limited pool of players capable of completing Zuk efficiently. - Over time, its price began a downward trend due to market stability, power creep from Necromancy (2023 combat rework), and competition with other weapons like the Tier 95 Dark Shard and Dark Sliver of Leng. - Periodic events, such as the mass hacking incidents and dupes (e.g., the rollback dupe of November 2021 or the Max Cash exploit of May 2024), injected trillions of GP into the economy, devaluing the Obsidian Blade as inflation eroded its relative worth. Currently, its price fluctuates in the mid-high tier market segment due to its position as a strong but non-essential item compared to Tier 95 Necromancy-based equipment that has grown dominant after August 2023. --- ### **Price Prediction Over the Coming Months:** #### **Key Historical Trend Analysis:** 1. **Initial Boom and Decline (2021–2022):** The weapon peaked at *2.14B GP* post-release (October 2021) before declining from power creep and macroeconomic shocks like the dupe exploits and introduction of Fresh Start Worlds. Average prices hovered between *600-800M GP* in 2022. 2. **Mid Decline with Small Peaks (2023):** Prices remained steady in the *350-400M GP* range, with occasional spikes during low supply periods. Necromancy’s release (August 2023) renewed interest in melee builds for complementary damage rotations, stabilizing demand but not causing long-term surges. 3. **Rapid Devaluation (2024):** The Max Cash update exploit (May 2024) and Jagex introducing *1B GP Treasure Hunter prizes* both inflated the economy, ultimately depressing the relative purchasing power of GP. This caused Obsidian Blade’s price to tank to *280M GP* in December 2024. #### **Upcoming Events Likely to Affect Prices:** - **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)**: With a new PvM encounter released, demand may shift toward newer, stronger weapon synergies, likely pushing the Obsidian Blade to lower relevance unless it gains newfound utility. - **Mining and Smithing Rework (August 2024)**: More accessible ore and bar creation systems could indirectly increase competition for melee weapons if high-end smithable weapons are introduced. - **GIM Bank Bug Dupe (November 2024)**: A potential injection of duped GP in the next few months could further reduce its real value, perpetuating the downward trend. #### **Projected Price Possible Ranges:** - End of Q1 2024: *250-275M GP* (market inertia and supply balance). - End of Q2 2024: *190-240M GP* (further inflation and newer PvM content like the Sanctum reducing demand). - Long-term: Stabilization between *150-200M GP* by early 2025 due to the general depreciation of Tier 95 melee meta as alternative combat options dominate. --- ### **Typical Flipping Margins (2023–2024):** The Obsidian Blade offers attractive flipping margins for high-capital players in calm markets: - **Standard Market Activity**: Margin spreads average between *5-8%*, meaning flips on a 400M GP investment could yield profits ranging from *20M-32M GP* per trade. - **Event Volatility**: During dupe crises or inflation events, spreads can widen to *15%+,* making it possible to profit *40M-60M GP* in a single cycle. Care must be taken, however, as sudden post-event patches could lock in losses if prices stabilize downward. Flipping is best optimized through the following: 1. Monitoring updates (e.g., weekly game patches often increase short-term demand). 2. Timing purchases during high player activity (weekends) and selling during lulls (Mondays). --- ### **Similar Items to Invest In:** If the Obsidian Blade's volatility or declining trend concerns you, consider alternatives: - **Dark Sliver & Shard of Leng (T95)**: High DPS demand persists for both melee/hybrid builds. - **Spear of Annihilation (T92)**: Meta-relevant in niche weapon rotations, with steady prices around *160-200M GP.* - **Farming Bonds for GP Stability**: With bond prices tied to real-world economics, flipping bonds during increased membership pricing trends (e.g., post-July 2024 price changes) can indirectly yield high GP profits. --- ### **Seasonal Price Patterns Worth Considering:** - **Positive Trends:** - **Post-Major PvM Updates (e.g., Rebirth):** Players tend to upgrade gear after new bosses are added, offering mild demand spikes. - **Seasonal Peaks:** Winter months (December–January) feature increased activity due to holiday events driving demand for high-end items. - **Negative Trends:** - **Economy Shocks (Dupes/Inflation):** Significant gold injections across the economy result in downward pressure on static items like the Obsidian Blade. - **Necromancy Dominance:** Gradually pushes melee weapons weaker than T95 hybrid options out of PvM metas. Long-term market engagement might favor pivoting heavily toward hybrid Tier 95+ weapons while considering seasonal flips of melee-specific gear or leveraging high-margin volatility.