### Summary and Analysis of the Dark Ice Shard **Item Summary**: The Dark Ice Shard is a cosmetic and tradeable override that was originally obtained as a high-tier Treasure Hunter prize during seasonal events. It’s frequently sought after by collectors for its aesthetic design and rarity, as it no longer drops from Treasure Hunter or other sources. Given its purely cosmetic nature, its value is driven entirely by supply, demand, and speculative trading. **Release Date**: September 2021 (coincides with the Croesus Front release during the Elder God Wars Dungeon expansion). **Overall Rarity**: Moderately rare. While not as inaccessible as discontinued rares (like partyhats), limited Treasure Hunter runs combined with lapses in re-releases have given the Dark Ice Shard a semi-discontinued perception among players, bolstering its speculative value. ### Historical Price Trends and Insights The price of the Dark Ice Shard has fluctuated dramatically over time, largely influenced by external economic factors, treasure hunter rewards, and GP inflation. Below are notable insights from historical trends: 1. **2021 Hype Bubble**: The Shard debuted in September 2021, coinciding with the Croesus release. Prices initially spiked (up to 375M on Sep 2, 2021) due to extreme hype, driven by its novelty and limited-time exclusivity on Treasure Hunter. However, the item sharply crashed days later due to the rollback dupe, causing trillions of gold to flood the economy (Sep 2, 2021). By November 2021, the price had stabilized around 15–24M. 2. **2022 Stability and Fresh Start Worlds**: Following several Treasure Hunter promo rotations and reduced novelty, the shard stabilized in the range of 17–24M. The launch of Fresh Start Worlds (Sep 22, 2022) caused minor market shocks, as some players liquidated collectibles for GP in the new game mode. 3. **2023-2024 Resurgence**: Between late 2022 and late 2023, cosmetic collectibles like the Dark Ice Shard saw renewed interest due to PvM wealth surges (see Necromancy release and max combat level increase in August 2023). However, market crashes following hacking incidents, Hero Pass backlash, and partyhat lures in late 2023 suppressed its gains temporarily. By November 2024, positive market sentiment caused its value to peak again at 24.98M. ### Prediction Over the Next Few Months Based on the item’s history and the general state of RuneScape’s economy: - **Short-Term Prediction (Dec 2024 - Mar 2025)**: The Dark Ice Shard will likely hold steady in the 20–27M range. If Treasure Hunter introduces another high-cosmetic-value override, minor drops in interest may occur as speculative players diversify their investments. Additionally, leftover market destabilization from the November GIM bank bug could suppress buyer activity during early 2025. - **Mid-Term Prediction (Mar - June 2025)**: With fewer Treasure Hunter re-releases for older cosmetic items and potential player focus shifting towards the next PvM/meta update, the Shard could steadily climb toward 30M. A particularly noteworthy economic driver would be a new player influx or additional GP injection methods (e.g., Treasure Hunter promos). ### Historical Events & Price Fluctuations Major dips and spikes correlate strongly with RuneScape's economic disruptions: - **Dupe Scandals (Sep 2021, early 2023)**: Introduced trillions of GP, disproportionately harming the collectible item market. - **Necromancy Hype (Aug 2023)**: Encouraged wealthier players to accumulate GP, bolstering interest in collectible investments. - **Treasure Hunter Updates**: When competing rewards or re-releases were introduced, Dark Ice Shard’s perceived exclusivity was reduced, leading to short dips. ### Typical Flipping Margins Given its semi-discontinued nature, the Dark Ice Shard typically trades with medium-to-wide spread margins, especially when market conditions are quiet: - **Active Flipping Periods**: Margins of 2–5M per shard are achievable during active trading months where demand peaks (e.g., during price corrections or treasure hunter promos). - **Low Activity Periods**: Margins shrink to 500K-2M but remain relatively stable thanks to collectors and speculators. To flip effectively, focus on buying slightly below the low end of GE averages on weeks with Treasure Hunter distractions (e.g., frequent promo releases) and selling as the item appreciates between updates. ### Related Items to Consider in Parallel For diversified flipping or long-term collection, consider other holiday/event or cosmetic-based overrides with similar economic traits: - **Frostshard Blades**: Another collectible override with high aesthetic similarity and Treasure Hunter origins, making it a speculative counterpart to the Dark Ice Shard. - **Chroma Frostwalker Set**: Seasonal-exclusive cosmetic armor overrides that align with collector trends. - **Aurora Dye**: While not a direct companion, its scarcity and speculative growth mirror that of other cosmetic collectibles, giving you broader investment exposure. ### Seasonal Performance Trends 1. **Positive Outcomes (Rising Prices)**: - **Holiday Seasons** (December): Festive demand grows as players focus on collectibles and holiday cosmetics. - **Post-Major Updates**: Price typically spikes after PvM or content updates, as wealthier PvMers diversify GP stockpiles into investments. 2. **Negative Outcomes (Falling Prices)**: - **Spring/Early Summer**: Lower active playerbases often result in liquidations and slower market activity. - **Large GP Injections**: Events like Treasure Hunter GP jackpots, dupes, or active hacking scandals inflate the GP supply and suppress the collectible market. By monitoring economic updates and aligning with seasonal trends, traders can optimize both flipping margins and long-term gains.