### Drygore Longsword Analysis #### Summary: The **Drygore Longsword**, released January 28, 2013, with the Kalphite King boss, is a tier-90 melee weapon favored for its high damage output and relatively accessible price compared to other top-tier weapons. It exists as part of the Drygore weapon set (including maces and rapiers), which are most notable for their dual-wielding capabilities and PvM efficiency. Its unique advantage includes a high attack speed combined with fast-chaining melee abilities. While it has been overshadowed by tier-92 and tier-95 weapons like *Zaros godswords* and *Sgb (e)*, the Drygore Longsword remains relevant for those transitioning into high-end PvM or budget-focused setups. #### Release Date: **January 28, 2013:** Introduced as a Kalphite King drop alongside other Drygore weapons. #### Rarity: The Drygore Longsword and its counterparts fluctuate in supply depending on how much Kalphite King is farmed. Updates that temporarily incentivize bossing, like Slayer task changes or Treasure Hunter promos with Kalphite King boosts, typically increase availability. However, their demand remains stable due to their utility, even with power creep from newer higher-tier weapons. --- ### Price Trends and Prediction **Historical Price Analysis:** - Initial analysis shows prices skyrocketing towards late 2024, with sudden increases in Dec 2024 to **49M** from lows of **5M** post-Necromancy (Aug 2023). - Significant dips occurred during known GP duplication (Nov 2023, Easter 2024) but rebounded as dupe gold dissipated. - High peaks, like **50M in late 2024**, often align with combat updates (March 2024) and *Sanctum of Rebirth's* release (July 2024), which likely increased demand for viable mid-tier bossing gear. **Key Update Correlations:** - Sharp jump in August 2024 (Necromancy rebalancing shifted many players to melee roles). - Drop to under **5M (Nov 2023)** due to gold floods (e.g., 700B+/hour scrimshaw dupe Jan 2023), destabilizing higher-tier GP values. **Prediction for the Next Few Months:** 1. **Short-term:** Stability around **15-25M** in Q1 2024 as demand compresses, especially post-Easter (weapons will see GP inflation driven by continuous exploits like Treasure Hunter GP increases). 2. **Mid-term:** Prices could spike to **30-40M range** near Aug-Dec 2024 with combat adjustments (e.g., Smithing rework or demand for melee artifacts during PvM updates). 3. **Long-Term Volatility:** The **Sanctum of Rebirth update (mid-2024)** will stabilize weapon prices but is unlikely to sustain demand above **40M** unless Jagex nerfs GP floods further. --- ### Typical Flipping Margins - Historically, **5%-10% flipping margins** are achievable with Drygores, especially during event hype like new bosses or Treasure Hunter campaigns involving PvM tasks. - **Example Margin Calculation**: - Buying **16.5M (March 2024 price)** and reselling at **18.2M** post-release weeks reflects a **1.7M margin per flip**. - Margins are better when **price volatility is high**, such as after major exploits or combat patches. - Market saturation via dupes reduced flipping profitability briefly in mid-2023 to less than **3% margins.** Prioritize inventory diversity to offset risks during heavy GP injection periods. #### Optimal Conditions: - Drygore flips thrive during **high PvM activity periods** (e.g., bossing or Slayer events). - Poor flipping outcomes during **Treasure Hunter GP sinks** or massive duping (“chase value collapse”). --- ### Related Investment Items: #### Alternatives to Buy Alongside Drygores: 1. **Ascension Crossbows (mid-tier ranged alternative):** - Ascensions spike concurrently with melee demand. - During 2024 combat updates, Necromancy balance changes caused ranged gear prices to rise, reflecting cross-play investments. - Flipping potential for **8-15% margins** depending on specific PvM meta changes. 2. **Razorback Gauntlets:** - Affordable PvM gloves often paired with Drygores. - Hover **5-12M**, with solid appreciation during boss re-runs or combat reworks affecting dual-wield builds. 3. **Elder Rune Armour:** - Minimal investment (~500k-800k for full sets in downturns). Major ballooning (~25-50%) post-Smithing reworks in Q3 2024 suggests synergy alongside melee tier shifts. #### Diversification Strategy: - Don’t overcommit to melee in uncertain markets; hedge through **multi-style items** like **T90 Virtus Armor** (ranged/mage hybrid). --- ### Seasonal Influences on Pricing #### Positive Seasonality: - **Summer and Combat Updates:** - Mid-year updates (e.g., Necromancy balance in 2023 caused spikes). - New bosses or incentives boost PvM gear demand mid-year. - **Treasure Hunter Jackpot Events:** Gold/item economy-driven players stockpile gear before anticipated power creep updates. #### Negative Seasonality: - **Post-Dupe Resets:** - Major GP exploits (Jan/March/Nov 2023) lead to sudden floods, crashing Drygore prices. - **Holiday Excess:** - December events like Black Partyhat or promotional oddments cap PvM interest, limiting T90 weapon demand temporarily. --- ### Key Takeaways: 1. Look for **post-Necromancy summers (July-August)** or impending combat rework periods for price surges. 2. Buy at dips caused by GP floods or Treasure Hunter GP releases. 3. Diversify into **dual-wield ranged or mage gear** during melee inflation seasons for minimized risk. 4. Flip with **5-10% margin targets**, optimizing sell-off immediately after related update releases.