### Shadow Spike Overview The **Shadow Spike** is a rare upgrade item introduced with the release of **Raksha, the Shadow Colossus**, on **December 7, 2020**. It serves as a consumable used to upgrade Masterwork Spear of Annihilation into a Masterwork Spear of Annihilation (Shadow) or to augment any other Masterwork equipment with Shadow abilities. It is used by high-end PvMers due to its niche enhancements, particularly in environments where Shadow-based combat abilities excel. This item is tradeable and sought after in the Grand Exchange (GE), but its supply is limited due to its reliance on drops from a boss that, while farmed, doesn’t see the consistent activity of more mainstream PvM content like Arch-Glacor or Zamorak, Lord of Chaos. ### **Rarity** The Shadow Spike is **rare** and largely dependent on bossing activity around Raksha. Its scarcity stems from the intermittent engagement of players in farming this boss relative to others. Furthermore, its price fluctuates significantly due to various player-driven economic influences, such as GP influxes and major game updates modifying gear demand. --- ### **Historical Pricing and Analysis** Analyzing the price history shows a **boom-bust pattern with volatility tied to economy-wide GP floods, content rotations, and new meta equipment demands.** 1. **2021-09 to 2022-02 (~Croesus)**: - Rise in prices occurred after Croesus' release (September 27, 2021) as bossers gained wealth to reinvest in upgrades like the Shadow Spike. Croesus rewards did not devalue Shadow Spike directly, as they focused on other item types. - Spiked again during **January 2022 (Duel Arena Removal)** when staking GP was funneled into high-value items before stabilizing around February 2022. 2. **Early 2023 (~Necromancy & Hacks)**: - Post player hack event (February 1, 2023), prices fell slightly as rare item markets absorbed the impact of hoarded GP dumps. - During Necromancy's arrival (August 2023), Raksha activity slightly spiked since meta-adjacent abilities gained renewed interest. However, this faded quickly as Necromancy weapons focused more on RuneScape's new melee-ethereal archetypes. 3. **Recent (2024)**: - **Easter Dupes (April 2024):** Gold floods caused a temporary drop in most high-value items, likely including Shadow Spike, causing turbulence followed by recovery. - The **Sanctum of Rebirth release (July 2024)** reinforced high-tier PvMers' likely interest, lending modest stability and slight price increases. - **Mining/Smithing Update (August 2024):** A temporary influx of Smithing-based crafting-related resources may increase competition for spikes, elevating prices depending on whether Masterwork modifications gain traction. ### **Recent Price Timeline Analysis** - **Price Dips:** The most notable sharp dip (2023-10-07, reaching 145M) aligns with fallout issues from player hacks and bot influxes or lures affecting high-value markets. - **Current Stability:** Shadow Spike pricing has rebounded to **201-210M (as of mid-2024)**, showing stabilization after years of volatility due to inflation, GP supply dumps, and new meta shifts. --- ### **Price Prediction (Late 2024 - Early 2025)** Given historical market trends, Shadow Spike pricing will remain sensitive to **GP influxes, item dupes, and PvM meta-shifts driven by future updates.** Factors that could drive prices occur along several trajectories: #### *Bullish Prediction: 220-240M* - If Jagex limits GP introduction (or fixes dupe systems) through refined balancing. - An expansion of Raksha and related mechanics could trigger a renewed demand spike for rare augmentations. - If combat updates in future patches favor Shadow-specific gear and require Spike upgrades. #### *Bearish Prediction: 160-180M* - If additional GP dupes, economy-driven Treasure Hunter rewards, or lurer exploits flood the market further. - Increased competition from new **Treasure Hunter or FSW items** that outclass Raksha-era content. Expect **seasonal fluctuations** to keep the value dynamic, particularly during **holiday events (Christmas through Easter), Exploratory PvM updates**, or GP-windfall updates. --- ### **Flipping Insights** Shadow Spikes are a high-volume GE tradable with potential flipping margins averaging **5-20M (2-10%)** depending on demand cycles and economic stability. #### *Optimal Buy Points* - Target dips during GP inflation events (e.g., **dupes, Treasure Hunter prizes scaling GP rewards**) to acquire at discounted rates. - Recent historical low purchase points rest around **200M or below.** #### *Optimal Sell Points* - Key PvM update launches tied to the Mage archetype or combat re-works introducing Shadow-style mechanics may drive spikes upward. Utilize speculative flipping strategies to offload at ranges nearing prior peaks, such as **230M.** --- ### **Similar Alternative Investments** To diversify risk or align with comparable yielding items, the following investments are recommended alongside Shadow Spike: 1. **Dark Ice Shard / Stone of Binding**: - Shares PvM-utility demand patterns and responds to similar boss engagements. 2. **Dyes (Shadow, Barrows, etc.):** - High-end luxury item markets maintain meta adjacencies while often reacting similarly to GP injections. 3. **Elder Divination Energy & Orbs of the Cywir Elders:** - Supplementary niche rare drops used in PvM or augmentation scenarios akin to Shadow Spike, affected similarly by RuneScape economy trends. --- ### **Seasonal & External Price Cycle Insights** - **Positive Price Seasons:** *November-January (Winter Holiday Patch Cycle)* – Gold reserves inflate from holiday Treasure Hunter rewards, and demand for enhancing top-tier PvM gear returns. - **Negative Price Seasons:** *Post-Easter through Summer (Q2/Q3)* – Gold sinks rise, GP becomes more available due to dupe fallout or event-based GP injections. Astute traders should monitor major **update announcements** and **changes in Boss rotations**, as both directly impact PvM intensity and crafting utility for Shadow Spike.