### **Summary, Rarity, and Historical Context** The *Statius's Warhammer* (SWH) in RuneScape 3 is a special attack weapon known for its ability to reduce an opponent's defense by 30% while dealing large melee damage. Originally introduced with the PvP-oriented PvP gear set from Bounty Hunter, it retains relevance even though Bounty Hunter itself was removed. Its rarity stems from how heavily tied it was to Wilderness activities, and its supply is now influenced by availability in PvM drop tables, making it harder to source consistently. The SWH is sought after not just for PvP (given its once-devastating effects), but also for PvM uses in current endgame combat, particularly boss fights where debuffing enemy stats improves kill speed. Despite the increased max combat level (152) and new abilities added with the Necromancy skill, its special attack maintains core utility, which aligns with its value fluctuations over time. ### **Key Price Points and Trends** Notable price data highlights: - **2021/07**: Peak price of 265,500,000 GP, shortly after dupe rollbacks and increased gold influx. - **2022/09**: A steady price decline begins due to *Fresh Start Worlds*, with players selling off assets. Price holds volatile patterns between **210,000,000 GP** and sub-100M GP levels. - **2023/07 to 08**: Price volatility spikes during the transition to *Necromancy* (max combat rework) as meta shifts caused demand inconsistencies. - **2024/07 to 10**: Price collapses from **~204M to ~59M**, coinciding with the *Sanctum of Rebirth* release (adding competing items to the PvM meta) and unforeseen Treasure Hunter cash influx. - Current price (as of late 2024): Stabilized at **~74M**, showing a slight recovery following months of player-driven GP demand stabilization. ### **Historical Drivers of Price Spikes and Drops** Significant market events have consistently driven SWH price behaviors: 1. **Gold Dupes (2021 and 2024)**: Massive influxes of gold greatly inflate prices in the short term. In the July 2024 incident, players actively offloaded high-value items, collapsing even iconic PvM weapons like the SWH. 2. **PvM Updates (e.g., Necromancy and Sanctum of Rebirth)**: PvM metas determine the item’s practical value. Pre-Necromancy, melee DPS-focused setups capitalized on SWH's defense reduction special. Post-Necromancy, complementary Necro debuffs weakened reliance on melee debuffs. *Sanctum of Rebirth*, which provides powerful competing items (e.g., Abyssal Armor Spikes), stole relevance over time. 3. **Economic Features (Bonds and Treasure Hunter)**: Jagex’s incremental GP injections and bond price adjustments harm high-tier gear like the SWH. When GP is directly pumped into the game (as in April and May 2024), prices fall due to oversupply, only to slightly recover afterward as GP concentrates in active players' hands. ### **Future Price Predictions** #### **Short-Term (3-6 months)** - Likely **74M → ~90M GP by February 2025.** - Expect moderate stabilizing recovery, bolstered by holiday GP sinks and the traditional playerbase uptick during Christmas and New Year’s events. This aligns with historical post-Q4 price trends (e.g., 2023 and 2022). - Watch out for *Treasure Hunter* promos, suspected PvM balancing patches (targeting *Necromancy-imbalanced bosses*), or potential further cash exploits (e.g., November 2024's GIM). #### **Mid-Term (6-12 months)** - Likely **90M → ~115M GP by mid-2025.** - As PvM metas resettle after rebirth expansions (*Mining & Smithing, Sanctum of Rebirth*), items like the SWH tend to regain slow appreciation in secondary bossing setups (e.g., for lower-level Ironmen or off-meta usages). This aligns with historical 2023 stabilization phases. #### **Caveats:** - Reintroduction of any "PvP worlds" or Wilderness features could inflate value immensely. - If the GP ecosystem sees another massive cash injection, panics may resume. ### **Flipping Margins** 1. **Typical Margins:** On average, flipping at **2%-5% profit per trade** during low-activity hours (Europe mornings) is achievable, especially with current prices hovering in a recovery state. - Example: **Buy at ~70M**, sell at ~72-74M consistently. 2. **Opportunities:** High player activity post-update windows (e.g., post-patch PvM adjustments) briefly compress margins but introduce higher Zen-games profits—high liquidity rotations during fast-pump nights. ### **Similar Items to Flip/Invest** 1. **Zuriel’s Staff**: Analogous PvP artifact seeing cyclical PvM meta spikes due to unforeseen updates. 2. **Vesta's Longsword**: Same PvP origin, with consistent usage among melee builds. Lower volatility than the SWH but follows similar demand/supply curves. 3. **Dragon Hunter Lance/Spear**: Strong PvM items with slower maturity trends but often mirror SWH demand dips. ### **Seasonal Price Behavior** - **Positive Seasons**: Q1-Q2 (January-May) tend to show steadier price increases due to heavy grinding months post-holidays. - **Negative Seasons**: Late Q3-Q4 (August-December) are generally weak for high-value items due to updates saturating markets and seasonal GP influxes from Treasure Hunter, Black Friday, or Jagex promos. ### **Conclusion** The *Statius’s Warhammer* is an iconic yet volatile high-tier melee weapon influenced heavily by PvM-driven metas and macroeconomic conditions within RuneScape. While prices are currently in recovery, historical data and seasonal cycles suggest cautious optimism for gradual appreciation over the coming months. Strategic flipping is possible but requires agility during major updates. Pairing SWH with related PvP-origin items or countercyclical PvM gear offers diversification to hedge against market risks.