### **Eldritch Crossbow Stock Analysis** **Summary, Release Date, and Rarity:** The Eldritch Crossbow Stock is a key component in crafting the *Eldritch Crossbow*, one of the most sought-after weapons in RuneScape 3 for its ability to use the *Split Soul* special attack, a massive DPS enhancer in encounters. The Stock was released into the game on **27th September 2021**, as part of the **Croesus Front Update** in the **Elder God Wars Dungeon (EGWD)**. This item is a rare drop obtained by engaging in high-tier skilling activities (Gathering, Artisan, Fishing, and Woodcutting) during the Croesus encounter, making it skilling-based in origin. Although the drop rate can vary depending on team size and personal skilling efficiency, the Stock has become less common over time as fewer players actively farm Croesus, and key supplies dwindle due to the focus on newer PvM metas (e.g., Necromancy recommendations). The Eldritch Crossbow is often targeted by intermediate high-end PvMers aiming to push into **Elite Dungeon 2**, **Raksha**, or **Zuk**, making the Stock consistently desirable but with occasional sharp price movements due to updates like gear power shifts. ### **Historical Price Trends Analysis:** The item's price trajectory reveals insights into the RS3 economy, supply-demand dynamics, and in-game events. Here are significant price points and contributing factors: 1. **Initial Release (Post-Sept 2021)**: Prices began around **1.145B (Aug 2021)**, reflecting the rarity upon Croesus release. High excitement over the Croesus meta and the Eldritch Crossbow's early PvM utility maintained prices near **1B+** consistently through the next few months. 2. **Duel Arena Removal (Jan 2022)**: Following the Duel Arena's abolishment and a shift to GP-sink mechanics, market stability strengthened, though Croesus rewards grew less farmed, starting a mild deflation. Prices held between **950M–1B**, then dipped as inflation returned. 3. **Fresh Start Worlds and Inflation (Q3 2022)**: Fresh Start Worlds incentivized many to pivot away from the main game. At the same time, inflationary effects from gold dupes drove a rapid market destabilization. Prices saw a peak valuation of **731M (Aug 25, 2022)** compared to early **2022 prices (~944M)**. 4. **Player Hacks & Scrimshaw Dupes (Jan-Mar 2023)**: A domino effect of GP dupes and mass hacking led to wild fluctuations from **650M → 449M → ~275M by December 2023**. Demand dropped, partly due to Hero Pass backlash and RS player dissatisfaction at extreme gold dilution. 5. **Max Cash Update & Trillions Introduced (May 2024)**: The **Max Cash Exploit** pumped trillions into circulation, reinflating GP-heavy markets but also crashing item value stability. Prices bounced temporarily around **295M**, only to fall later amid additional Treasure Hunter GP inflation. ### **Price Prediction (2024–2025):** Based on historical patterns and projected updates: - **Short-Term (3–6 Months)**: Prices are expected to drop moderately to **230M–250M** due to continued GP inflation from Treasure Hunter gold rewards and systemic recent dupes. General *Elder God Wars* demand is waning amidst newer bosses, and Croesus farming continues to lose popularity. - **Long-Term (6–12 Months)**: A steady recovery to **~300M** may occur under two circumstances: - Necromancy revisits or balanced combat updates bolster skilling-PvM items. - Jagex implements measures to curb GP surpluses, strengthening rare-skilling drops. ### **Flipping Margins:** Eldritch Crossbow Stock's shallow trade volume provides *moderate flipping opportunities*. Margins can span **2-4M per flip**, averaging **1-2 flips/day** for larger merchants. Monitor GE activity during low-demand weeks (before updates) for optimal buy-ins. - **Optimal Buy Prices**: Target **225M–235M** near weekly resets or bot bans. - **Optimal Sell Prices**: **265M–275M**, achievable after patch notes tied to mechanics favoring *team bossing or solo-skillers*. ### **Complementary Items For Investment:** Investors should consider the following items with similar historical outputs or complementary crafting benefit value: 1. **Precursor Components (e.g. Greater Ricochet Codex)**: These legacy items share periodic demand arcs depending on how respective PvM metas (such as ranged efficiency boosts) shift. 2. **Zaros Components** (e.g., Cryptbloom Top): Teched gear prices move in tandem with richer PvM-user shifts. 3. **Elite Divination Skilling Supplies**: Incandescent energy prices drift as visible inflation. ### **Seasonal Trends:** The RS3 market follows well-documented seasonal trends: 1. **Positive Price Trends**: - **Post-Updates (Bossing Patches)**: Combat updates (e.g., *Necromancy Tweaks*) favor endgame farming. - **Holiday Burnouts** (Post-Dec): Players dominate PvM around Jan–Feb. Croesus's low activity heightens Stock scarcity short-term. 2. **Negative Price Trends**: - **Pre-Holiday Gold Inflation** (Jul-Aug): Mid-year patch hype usually stokes Treasure Hunter inflation. - **Economic Disruptions**: Treasure Hunter promos (like GP injections) erode Stock value cyclically. --- ### **Conclusion:** The Eldritch Crossbow Stock has shown sensitivity to major ecosystem adjustments, swinging wildly with systemic GP increases in recent years. Current forecasts indicate probable medium-term deflation to **200M–250M**, barring significant balance changes. Merchants should cautiously leverage **flipping margins** while diversifying into complementary skilling-PvM items during slower Croesus rotations. Seasonal patterns support short-term investments around **Q1 item scarcity** events for predictable returns.