### Item Overview and Analysis The **Reprisal Ability Codex** is a highly specialized, tradeable item in RuneScape 3 that unlocks the Reprisal ability. This ability is particularly attractive to endgame PvMers due to its strong counterplay mechanic—allowing the user to reflect damage received back at attackers—making it highly effective against bosses with predictable high-damage phases. Released alongside the **Elite Dungeon 2 – The Dragonkin Laboratory** in **July 2018**, it is manufactured using materials from the black stone dragon drop table, further contributing to its scarcity given the dungeon's moderate-completion frequency relative to other content. #### Rarity Its rarity derives from two primary factors: 1. **Low supply mechanics**: Black stone hearts are uncommon drops, and most casual PvMers farming the dungeon prioritize profit over creating the codex itself. This naturally limits its availability. 2. **High-demand consumption**: Once the codex is consumed by unlocking the ability, it is permanently removed from circulation, fostering consistent demand among players intending to optimize their PvM setups. --- ### Price Analysis and Historical Trends Using the price history and correlating it with in-game events: #### Key Data Points: - Initial spike to **63.1M on 01/22/2022** (~two months into the post-Duel Arena market): This aligns with a market shift favoring high-demand PvM items paired with increasing discretionary GP chasing combat efficiency. - Gradual increases following **08/07/2023** (Necromancy skill release): As Necromancy builds synergized with abilities like Reprisal, demand expanded, causing the item to become more competitive for both DPS and tank strategies. - Major price surge in **early 2024**, ebbing between **70M-74.9M**: Triggered by the **03/04/2024 combat update**, which likely optimized Reprisal's viability in PvM rotations, particularly with mechanics-heavy bosses. #### Price Spikes: - **03/01/2024: 74.9M** (peak price before a glut in early April): This was fueled by the combat rebalancing targeting defensive utilities and bug fixes, making the ability more consistent for bossing. - **04/10/2024: Treasure Hunter injection of 1B GP and the Max Cash exploit in May**: These updates pumped trillions of GP into the economy, inflating item prices across the board, with retained clarity on PvM items. #### Price Dips: - **05/05/2024: 30M low**: This steep decline directly coincides with post-exploit inflation corrections, where sudden over-liquidity was countered by price stabilization. Reprisal likely faced increased supplies of discounted dungeon farmed components during this correction window. #### Current Rarity and Scarcity Trends: - Given the Sanctum of Rebirth release in **July 2024**, high-level players may have shifted focus to farming more lucrative rewards, leading to a suppressed supply. The intermittent demand for PvM meta items coupled with Wilderness PvP removal (10/17/2022) has also moved focus more toward PvM-centric builds in recent years. --- ### Price Prediction (Next 6 Months) - **October - December 2024**: Stabilization near **50-55M**, with intermittent short-term moves downward due to the immediate impact of the **Sanctum and Treasure Hunter events**, which created some GP oversaturation. New exploits (e.g., GIM bug in November 2024) will further extend liquidity issues. - **January - March 2025**: Climbing to **65-70M** due to increased demand from PvM resource compression and upcoming competitive bossing content. Historical patterns show that combat updates or dungeon-related content increase relevance for rare PvM utility codices. --- ### Flipping Margins & Strategies #### Typical Margins: - Average flipping profit margins on the **Reprisal Ability Codex** hover between **3-5M per trade** during high-liquid market times (e.g., combat patches or competitive weeks). Margins can tighten to **1-2M** when supply is oversaturated (seasonal farm-favoring events). #### Ideal Flipping Windows: - **Pre-Update Demand**: Buy in bulk before announcements for combat balancing or new PvM bosses. PvM-centric releases tend to inflate the codex prices temporarily. - **Post-Over-Restock/Exploit Periods**: Following significant exploits or excessive GP injections (e.g., May 2024’s Max Cash GP glut), the downward volatility often produces cheap buy-in opportunities for resales after the market stabilizes. --- ### Other Similar Items to Consider If flipping Reprisal Codices or looking for related investments: 1. **Greater Ricochet Ability Codex**: Also tied to PvM potential, this ability thrives with AoE setups for Necromancy or high-DPS builds. 2. **Limitless Ability Codex**: High utility for adrenaline management, creating constant demand among all PvMers and PvPers. 3. **Affliction Codexes (related)**: Items that shine once combat systems receive further Necromancy or magic reworks. --- ### Seasonal Impacts and Context #### Positive Seasonal Trends: - **Winter Months (Jan-March)**: Historically aligns with updates or combat patching cycles. Developers often push new bosses or significant PvM-related incentives during this quarter, raising codex prices across the board. - **Late Summer (July-August)**: Frequent skilling or combat updates draw engagement, creating spikes for high utility or meta-defining items. #### Negative Seasonal Impacts: - **Spring (April-May)**: Historical tendency for exploit or Treasure Hunter-focused events to oversaturate GP, often extending an indirect downward pressure. - **Post-Wilderness PvP Removal Updates (Oct-Nov 2022)**: PvM-heavy updates already shifted meta toward specific codex-enabled strategies, making redundancy in PvP codices less favorable. --- ### Final Thoughts The Reprisal Ability Codex is a highly volatile and unique PvM commodity that thrives on market scarcity and combat meta-remains central to flipping, PvM setups, and investment strategies. Traders should exploit short-term price dives post-economic exploits as restocking opportunities to capitalize on the codex’s perpetual mid-to-high demand cycle amongst elite PvMers. Pair this flipping strategy with complementary items like Greater Ricochet or Limitless Codices to hedge against PvM volatility moving into 2025.