### **Dragon Rider Lance Overview** The Dragon Rider Lance is a tier 90 two-handed melee weapon introduced to RuneScape on **January 4, 2016**, as a rare drop from the spiritual dragon bosses (specifically Vindicta and Gorvek) in the Heart of Gielinor (God Wars Dungeon 2). It has a powerful AoE auto-attack effect and is often sought after for its high damage output as a PvM weapon by mid-to-upper-tier melee players. It is non-degradable, making it a cost-efficient weapon relative to alternatives like dual-wielded Drygore weapons or the noxious scythe. As part of Vindicta's drop table, its rarity is tied to the player's drop potential and RNG, making it less common than items obtained via Treasure Hunter or newer boss loot systems, though readily available due to Vindicta’s popularity. --- ### **Summary of Price Trends and Historical Insights** The Dragon Rider Lance has experienced significant price fluctuations since its release, often tied to broader in-game economic trends, updates, or impacts from bugs/dupes. Here's a summary of notable price data points from your dataset: - **2021-2022:** Relatively high price stability was disrupted by economic inflation caused by rollback dupes (01/2021) and other GP influx events, causing spikes above **55M GP**. - **2023-Present:** A downward trend began following economic crashes and content updates such as the release of Necromancy (August 2023), decreasing demand for melee weaponry temporarily in favor of Necromancy-based weapons. Other events, like the Hero Pass backlash (reducing player activity), further softened the market. ### **Interpreting Specific Spikes/Dips** 1. **January 2022 Spike**: Reached **55M GP** due to max cash conversion inefficiencies and significant in-game inflation following the Duel Arena's removal. Players often reallocating wealth to tangible assets like high-tier PvM gear likely contributed. 2. **Necromancy Patch (August 2023)**: Dropped from **41M to 31M GP** as players shifted focus to the new Necromancy skill, causing a dip in demand for melee-specific items. 3. **Late 2023 to Early 2024 Recovery:** Small recovery trends were seen, driven by new PvM content (e.g., the **Max Combat Level increase**) that encouraged hybrid melee setups. --- ### **Price Prediction over the Coming Months** Taking into account historical data, current updates, and anticipated game trends: 1. **3-Month Outlook (Late 2024):** Expect prices to **rise modestly to 30-35M GP**. The upcoming **Smithing Rework (August 2024)** may indirectly boost melee demand as new training methods feed T90/T92 equipment usage. However, the November 2024 GIM bank bug dupe will likely reintroduce GP inflation, softening pricing trends. 2. **6-Month Outlook (Early 2025):** Prices may drop below **30M GP** if inflationary pressure from potential new Treasure Hunter events overwhelms economic corrections or if melee weapon demand is usurped by anticipated Necromancy and ranged hybrids. --- ### **Flipping Margins Analysis** The Dragon Rider Lance has consistent price volatility and *moderate* profit margins for flipping: - **Buy Low Opportunities:** - Look for dips during predictable content dry spells, typically after Necromancy-centric or Smithing-based updates when demand shifts to hybrid or niche weaponry. Common support levels are **25M-27M GP**. - **Sell High Strategies:** - Resell during PvM-focused updates where melee returns to favor or holiday events that boost in-game engagement. Sell prices regularly climb into the **30M-35M GP** range. Typical flipping margins hover between **3%-7%** per trade, equating to approximately **800K to 2M GP profit** per transaction depending on market activity. --- ### **Similar Investment Options & Correlations** For a balanced investment portfolio, consider the following items that exhibit similar market patterns and can hedge against melee-specific volatility: 1. **Noxious Scythe**: - Another AoE melee weapon but at T90 with higher popularity for high-tier PvM. - Strong performance during boss-centric updates like the **Sanctum of Rebirth (July 2024)**. 2. **Drygore Maces**: - Cheaper dual-wield alternative with reliable flipping volatility. Prices track hybrid melee content due to its damage efficiency for abilities. 3. **Praesul Codex**: - A strong complementary investment due to its use in upgrading combat abilities (specifically seen as a "meta-adjacent" item). - More related to general GP inflation trends. --- ### **Seasonal Trends and Key Timing** - **Positive Price Seasons:** - After holiday events when high GP influxes occur (e.g., Easter or Christmas Treasure Hunter promotions). - When new bosses or PvM mechanics directly incentivize melee over ranged/magic (e.g., unique mechanics in **Sanctum of Rebirth**). - **Negative Price Seasons:** - Periods of high economic instability, such as following **duplication exploits** (e.g., **May 2024 Max Cash update**). - Updates introducing skills like **Necromancy (08/2023)**, which divert attention and GP away from melee-related items. --- ### **Conclusion** The Dragon Rider Lance remains a moderately priced, historically significant weapon with reliable flipping opportunities for traders. While melee demand has waned during Necromancy's rise, longer-term fundamentals (e.g., sustained PvM updates) should ensure steady demand. When paired with noxious scythe or Drygore items, this investment can yield consistent returns, especially if market volatility is properly timed with update cycles and Treasure Hunter wealth influxes. Be cautious near major dupe-exploit events but aim for acquisitions under 27M GP for optimal profit potential.